Predicting critical transitions in complex systems, such as epileptic seizures in the brain, represents a major challenge in scientific research. The high-dimensional characteristics and hidden critical signals further complicate early-warning tasks. This study proposes a novel early-warning framework that integrates manifold learning with stochastic dynamical system modeling. Through systematic comparison, six methods including diffusion maps (DM) are selected to construct low-dimensional representations. Based on these, a data-driven stochastic differential equation model is established to robustly estimate the probability evolution scoring function of the system. Building on this, a new Score Function (SF) indicator is defined by incorporating Schrödinger bridge theory to quantify the likelihood of significant state transitions in the system. Experiments demonstrate that this indicator exhibits higher sensitivity and robustness in epilepsy prediction, enables earlier identification of critical points, and clearly captures dynamic features across various stages before and after seizure onset. This work provides a systematic theoretical framework and practical methodology for extracting early-warning signals from high-dimensional data.

Federated learning enables institutions to train predictive models collaboratively without sharing raw data, addressing privacy and regulatory constraints. In the standard horizontal setting, clients hold disjoint cohorts of individuals and collaborate to learn a shared predictor. Most existing methods, however, assume that all clients measure the same features. We study the more realistic setting of covariate mismatch, where each client observes a different subset of features, which typically arises in multicenter collaborations with no prior agreement on data collection. We formalize learning a linear prediction under client-wise MCAR patterns and develop two modular approaches tailored to the dimensional regime and communication budget. In the low-dimensional setting, we propose a plug-in estimator that approximates the oracle linear predictor by aggregating sufficient statistics to estimate the covariance and cross-moment terms. In higher dimensions, we study an impute-then-regress strategy: (i) impute missing covariates using any exchangeability-preserving imputation procedure, and (ii) fit a ridge-regularized linear model on the completed data. We provide asymptotic and finite-sample learning rates for our predictors, explicitly characterizing their behaviour with the global dimension, the client-specific feature partition, and the distribution of samples across sites.

Large language models (LLMs) generate outputs by utilizing extensive context, which often includes redundant information from prompts, retrieved passages, and interaction history. In critical applications, it is vital to identify which context elements actually influence the output, as standard explanation methods struggle with redundancy and overlapping context. Minor changes in input can lead to unpredictable shifts in attribution scores, undermining interpretability and raising concerns about risks like prompt injection. This work addresses the challenge of distinguishing essential context elements from correlated ones. We introduce RISE (Redundancy-Insensitive Scoring of Explanation), a method that quantifies the unique influence of each input relative to others, minimizing the impact of redundancies and providing clearer, stable attributions. Experiments demonstrate that RISE offers more robust explanations than traditional methods, emphasizing the importance of conditional information for trustworthy LLM explanations and monitoring.

Poisson equations underpin average-reward reinforcement learning, but beyond ergodicity they can be ill-posed, meaning that solutions are non-unique and standard fixed point iterations can oscillate on reducible or periodic chains. We study finite-state Markov chains with $n$ states and transition matrix $P$. We show that all non-decaying modes are captured by a real peripheral invariant subspace $\mathcal{K}(P)$, and that the induced operator on the quotient space $\mathbb{R}^n/\mathcal{K}(P)$ is strictly contractive, yielding a unique quotient solution. Building on this viewpoint, we develop an end-to-end pipeline that learns the chain structure, estimates an anchor based gauge map, and runs projected stochastic approximation to estimate a gauge-fixed representative together with an associated peripheral residual. We prove $\widetilde{O}(T^{-1/2})$ convergence up to projection estimation error, enabling stable Poisson equation learning for multichain and periodic regimes with applications to performance evaluation of average-reward reinforcement learning beyond ergodicity.

Ultrafast online learning is essential for high-frequency systems, such as controls for quantum computing and nuclear fusion, where adaptation must occur on sub-microsecond timescales. Meeting these requirements demands low-latency, fixed-precision computation under strict memory constraints, a regime in which conventional Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs) are both inefficient and numerically unstable. We identify key properties of Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) that align with these constraints. Specifically, we show that: (i) KAN updates exploiting B-spline locality are sparse, enabling superior on-chip resource scaling, and (ii) KANs are inherently robust to fixed-point quantization. By implementing fixed-point online training on Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), a representative platform for on-chip computation, we demonstrate that KAN-based online learners are significantly more efficient and expressive than MLPs across a range of low-latency and resource-constrained tasks. To our knowledge, this work is the first to demonstrate model-free online learning at sub-microsecond latencies.

Designing algorithms that can explore multimodal target distributions accurately across successive refinements of an underlying high-dimensional problem is a central challenge in sampling. Annealed Langevin dynamics (ALD) is a widely used alternative to classical Langevin since it often yields much faster mixing on multimodal targets, but there is still a gap between this empirical success and existing theory: when, and under which design choices, can ALD be guaranteed to remain stable as dimension increases? In this paper, we help bridge this gap by providing a uniform-in-dimension analysis of continuous-time ALD for multimodal targets that can be well-approximated by Gaussian mixture models. Along an explicit annealing path obtained by progressively removing Gaussian smoothing of the target, we identify sufficient spectral conditions - linking smoothing covariance and the covariances of the Gaussian components of the mixture - under which ALD achieves a prescribed accuracy within a single, dimension-uniform time horizon. We then establish dimension-robustness to imperfect initialization and score approximation: under a misspecified-mixture score model, we derive explicit conditions showing that preconditioning the ALD algorithm with a sufficiently decaying spectrum is necessary to prevent error terms from accumulating across coordinates and destroying dimension-uniform control. Finally, numerical experiments illustrate and validate the theory.

In this paper, we propose a general methodology for sampling from un-normalized densities defined on Riemannian manifolds, with a particular focus on multi-modal targets that remain challenging for existing sampling methods. Inspired by the framework of diffusion models developed for generative modeling, we introduce a sampling algorithm based on the simulation of a non-equilibrium deterministic dynamics that transports an easy-to-sample noise distribution toward the target. At the marginal level, the induced density path follows a prescribed stochastic interpolant between the noise and target distributions, specifically constructed to respect the underlying Riemannian geometry. In contrast to related generative modeling approaches that rely on machine learning, our method is entirely training-free. It instead builds on iterative posterior sampling procedures using only standard Monte Carlo techniques, thereby extending recent diffusion-based sampling methodologies beyond the Euclidean setting. We complement our approach with a rigorous theoretical analysis and demonstrate its effectiveness on a range of multi-modal sampling problems, including high-dimensional and heavy-tailed examples.

Rapidly evolving market conditions call for real-time risk monitoring, but its online estimation remains challenging. In this paper, we study the online estimation of one of the most widely used risk measures, Value at Risk (VaR). Its accurate and reliable estimation is essential for timely risk control and informed decision-making. We propose to use the quantile regression forest in the offline-simulation-online-estimation (OSOA) framework. Specifically, the quantile regression forest is trained offline to learn the relationship between the online VaR and risk factors, and real-time VaR estimates are then produced online by incorporating observed risk factors. To further ensure reliability, we develop a conformalized estimator that calibrates the online VaR estimates. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to leverage conformal calibration to estimate real-time VaR reliably based on the OSOA formulation. Theoretical analysis establishes the consistency and coverage validity of the proposed estimators. Numerical experiments confirm the proposed method and demonstrate its effectiveness in practice.

Importance weighted variational inference (VI) approximates densities known up to a normalizing constant by optimizing bounds that tighten with the number of Monte Carlo samples $N$. Standard optimization relies on reparameterized gradient estimators, which are well-studied theoretically yet restrict both the choice of the data-generating process and the variational approximation. While REINFORCE gradient estimators do not suffer from such restrictions, they lack rigorous theoretical justification. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive analysis of REINFORCE gradient estimators in importance weighted VI, leveraging this theoretical foundation to diagnose and resolve fundamental deficiencies in current state-of-the-art estimators. Specifically, we introduce and examine a generalized family of variational inference for Monte Carlo objectives (VIMCO) gradient estimators. We prove that state-of-the-art VIMCO gradient estimators exhibit a vanishing signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) as $N$ increases, which prevents effective optimization. To overcome this issue, we propose the novel VIMCO-$\star$ gradient estimator and show that it averts the SNR collapse of existing VIMCO gradient estimators by achieving a $\sqrt{N}$ SNR scaling instead. We demonstrate its superior empirical performance compared to current VIMCO implementations in challenging settings where reparameterized gradients are typically unavailable.

We study the effect of high-order statistics of data on the learning dynamics of neural networks (NNs) by using a moment-controllable non-Gaussian data model. Considering the expressivity of two-layer neural networks, we first construct the data model as a generative two-layer NN where the activation function is expanded by using Hermite polynomials. This allows us to achieve interpretable control over high-order cumulants such as skewness and kurtosis through the Hermite coefficients while keeping the data model realistic. Using samples generated from the data model, we perform controlled online learning experiments with a two-layer NN. Our results reveal a moment-wise progression in training: networks first capture low-order statistics such as mean and covariance, and progressively learn high-order cumulants. Finally, we pretrain the generative model on the Fashion-MNIST dataset and leverage the generated samples for further experiments. The results of these additional experiments confirm our conclusions and show the utility of the data model in a real-world scenario. Overall, our proposed approach bridges simplified data assumptions and practical data complexity, which offers a principled framework for investigating distributional effects in machine learning and signal processing.