Figure 1: (left) Venn diagram of the new types of random features (green) we propose.(right)

Normative modeling estimates reference distributions of biological measures conditional on covariates, enabling centiles and clinically interpretable deviation scores to be derived. Most neuroimaging pipelines fit one model per imaging-derived phenotype (IDP), which scales well but discards multivariate dependence that may encode coordinated patterns. We propose denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) as a unified conditional density estimator for tabular IDPs, from which univariate centiles and deviation scores are derived by sampling. We utilise two denoiser backbones: (i) a feature-wise linear modulation (FiLM) conditioned multilayer perceptron (MLP) and (ii) a tabular transformer with feature self-attention and intersample attention (SAINT), conditioning covariates through learned embeddings. We evaluate on a synthetic benchmark with heteroscedastic and multimodal age effects and on UK Biobank FreeSurfer phenotypes, scaling from dimension of 2 to 200. Our evaluation suite includes centile calibration (absolute centile error, empirical coverage, and the probability integral transform), distributional fidelity (Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests), multivariate dependence diagnostics, and nearest-neighbour memorisation analysis. For low dimensions, diffusion models deliver well-calibrated per-IDP outputs comparable to traditional baselines while jointly modeling realistic dependence structure. At higher dimensions, the transformer backbone remains substantially better calibrated than the MLP and better preserves higher-order dependence, enabling scalable joint normative models that remain compatible with standard per-IDP pipelines. These results support diffusion-based normative modeling as a practical route to calibrated multivariate deviation profiles in neuroimaging.

Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. When it comes to physical currency, it's tough to beat Australia's brightly colored paper bills. Those hues are also extending to special edition $1 coins commemorating the Australian winter athletes and parathletes competing in the 2026 Milan Cortina Olympics in Italy. Royal Australian Mint chief executive officer Emily Martin told Yahoo Finance Australia that these limited-edition coins honor the skill and perseverance of the nation's athletes. "Each coin beautifully captures the passion and resilience of both Australian teams, and we're excited for collectors and fans to share in this journey with us," Martin said .

A complete understanding of heterogeneous treatment effects involves characterizing the full conditional distribution of potential outcomes. To this end, we propose the Conditional Counterfactual Mean Embeddings (CCME), a framework that embeds conditional distributions of counterfactual outcomes into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). Under this framework, we develop a two-stage meta-estimator for CCME that accommodates any RKHS-valued regression in each stage. Based on this meta-estimator, we develop three practical CCME estimators: (1) Ridge Regression estimator, (2) Deep Feature estimator that parameterizes the feature map by a neural network, and (3) Neural-Kernel estimator that performs RKHS-valued regression, with the coefficients parameterized by a neural network. We provide finite-sample convergence rates for all estimators, establishing that they possess the double robustness property. Our experiments demonstrate that our estimators accurately recover distributional features including multimodal structure of conditional counterfactual distributions.

Deep learning has achieved remarkable success across a wide range of domains, significantly expanding the frontiers of what is achievable in artificial intelligence. Yet, despite these advances, critical challenges remain -- most notably, ensuring robustness to small input perturbations and generalization to out-of-distribution data. These critical challenges underscore the need to understand the underlying fundamental principles that govern robustness and generalization. Among the theoretical tools available, Lipschitz continuity plays a pivotal role in governing the fundamental properties of neural networks related to robustness and generalization. It quantifies the worst-case sensitivity of network's outputs to small input perturbations. While its importance is widely acknowledged, prior research has predominantly focused on empirical regularization approaches based on Lipschitz constraints, leaving the underlying principles less explored. This thesis seeks to advance a principled understanding of the principles of Lipschitz continuity in neural networks within the paradigm of machine learning, examined from two complementary perspectives: an internal perspective -- focusing on the temporal evolution of Lipschitz continuity in neural networks during training (i.e., training dynamics); and an external perspective -- investigating how Lipschitz continuity modulates the behavior of neural networks with respect to features in the input data, particularly its role in governing frequency signal propagation (i.e., modulation of frequency signal propagation).

TabPFN is a transformer that achieves state-of-the-art performance on supervised tabular tasks by amortizing Bayesian prediction into a single forward pass. However, there is currently no method for uncertainty decomposition in TabPFN. Because it behaves, in an idealised limit, as a Bayesian in-context learner, we cast the decomposition challenge as a Bayesian predictive inference (BPI) problem. The main computational tool in BPI, predictive Monte Carlo, is challenging to apply here as it requires simulating unmodeled covariates. We therefore pursue the asymptotic alternative, filling a gap in the theory for supervised settings by proving a predictive CLT under quasi-martingale conditions. We derive variance estimators determined by the volatility of predictive updates along the context. The resulting credible bands are fast to compute, target epistemic uncertainty, and achieve near-nominal frequentist coverage. For classification, we further obtain an entropy-based uncertainty decomposition.

Information Bottleneck (IB) is widely used, but in deep learning, it is usually implemented through tractable surrogates, such as variational bounds or neural mutual information (MI) estimators, rather than directly controlling the MI I(X;Z) itself. The looseness and estimator-dependent bias can make IB "compression" only indirectly controlled and optimization fragile. We revisit the IB problem through the lens of information geometry and propose a \textbf{Geo}metric \textbf{I}nformation \textbf{B}ottleneck (\textbf{GeoIB}) that dispenses with mutual information (MI) estimation. We show that I(X;Z) and I(Z;Y) admit exact projection forms as minimal Kullback-Leibler (KL) distances from the joint distributions to their respective independence manifolds. Guided by this view, GeoIB controls information compression with two complementary terms: (i) a distribution-level Fisher-Rao (FR) discrepancy, which matches KL to second order and is reparameterization-invariant; and (ii) a geometry-level Jacobian-Frobenius (JF) term that provides a local capacity-type upper bound on I(Z;X) by penalizing pullback volume expansion of the encoder. We further derive a natural-gradient optimizer consistent with the FR metric and prove that the standard additive natural-gradient step is first-order equivalent to the geodesic update. We conducted extensive experiments and observed that the GeoIB achieves a better trade-off between prediction accuracy and compression ratio in the information plane than the mainstream IB baselines on popular datasets. GeoIB improves invariance and optimization stability by unifying distributional and geometric regularization under a single bottleneck multiplier. The source code of GeoIB is released at "https://anonymous.4open.science/r/G-IB-0569".

Australia's eSafety commissioner has welcomed the global regulatory focus on Elon Musk's X after this week's raid in France. Australia's eSafety commissioner has welcomed the global regulatory focus on Elon Musk's X after this week's raid in France. The eSafety commissioner, Julie Inman Grant, says global regulatory focus on Elon Musk's X has reached a "tipping point" after a raid of the company's offices in France this week. The raid on Tuesday was part of an investigation that included alleged offences of complicity in the possession and organised distribution of child abuse images, violation of image rights through sexualised deepfakes, and denial of crimes against humanity. A number of other countries - including the UK and Australia - and the EU have launched investigations in the past few weeks into X after its AI chatbot, Grok, was used to mass-produce sexualised images of women and children in response to user requests.

Graph generative modelling has become an essential task due to the wide range of applications in chemistry, biology, social networks, and knowledge representation. In this work, we propose a novel framework for generating graphs by adapting the Generator Matching (arXiv:2410.20587) paradigm to graph-structured data. We leverage the graph Laplacian and its associated heat kernel to define a continous-time diffusion on each graph. The Laplacian serves as the infinitesimal generator of this diffusion, and its heat kernel provides a family of conditional perturbations of the initial graph. A neural network is trained to match this generator by minimising a Bregman divergence between the true generator and a learnable surrogate. Once trained, the surrogate generator is used to simulate a time-reversed diffusion process to sample new graph structures. Our framework unifies and generalises existing diffusion-based graph generative models, injecting domain-specific inductive bias via the Laplacian, while retaining the flexibility of neural approximators. Experimental studies demonstrate that our approach captures structural properties of real and synthetic graphs effectively.