The Schrodinger Bridge and Bass (SBB) formulation, which jointly controls drift and volatility, is an established extension of the classical Schrodinger Bridge (SB). Building on this framework, we introduce LightSBB-M, an algorithm that computes the optimal SBB transport plan in only a few iterations. The method exploits a dual representation of the SBB objective to obtain analytic expressions for the optimal drift and volatility, and it incorporates a tunable parameter beta greater than zero that interpolates between pure drift (the Schrodinger Bridge) and pure volatility (Bass martingale transport). We show that LightSBB-M achieves the lowest 2-Wasserstein distance on synthetic datasets against state-of-the-art SB and diffusion baselines with up to 32 percent improvement. We also illustrate the generative capability of the framework on an unpaired image-to-image translation task (adult to child faces in FFHQ). These findings demonstrate that LightSBB-M provides a scalable, high-fidelity SBB solver that outperforms existing SB and diffusion baselines across both synthetic and real-world generative tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/alexouadi/LightSBB-M.

Healthcare sector indices consolidate the economic health of pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and healthcare service firms. The short-term movements in these indices are closely intertwined with capital allocation decisions affecting research and development investment, drug availability, and long-term health outcomes. This research investigates whether historical open-high-low-close (OHLC) index data contain sufficient information for predicting the directional movement of the opening index on the subsequent trading day. The problem is formulated as a supervised classification task involving a one-step-ahead rolling window. A diverse feature set is constructed, comprising original prices, volatility-based technical indicators, and a novel class of nowcasting features derived from mutual OHLC ratios. The framework is evaluated on data from healthcare indices in the U.S. and Indian markets over a five-year period spanning multiple economic phases, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The results demonstrate robust predictive performance, with accuracy exceeding 0.8 and Matthews correlation coefficients above 0.6. Notably, the proposed nowcasting features have emerged as a key determinant of the market movement. We have employed the Shapley-based explainability paradigm to further elucidate the contribution of the features: outcomes reveal the dominant role of the nowcasting features, followed by a more moderate contribution of original prices. This research offers a societal utility: the proposed features and model for short-term forecasting of healthcare indices can reduce information asymmetry and support a more stable and equitable health economy.

A large and rapidly expanding literature demonstrates that machine learning (ML) methods substantially improve out-of-sample asset return prediction relative to conventional linear benchmarks, and that these statistical gains often translate into economically meaningful portfolio performance. Seminal contributions such as Gu et al. (2020) document large Sharpe ratio improvements from nonlinear learners in U.S. equities, while subsequent work extends these findings to stochastic discount factor estimation (Chen et al. 2024), international equity markets (Leippold et al. 2022), and bond return forecasting (Kelly et al. 2019, Bianchi et al. 2020). Collectively, this literature establishes ML as a powerful tool for extracting conditional expected returns in environments characterized by noisy signals, nonlinear interactions, and pervasive multicollinearity.

We develop a rigorous walk-forward validation framework for algorithmic trading designed to mitigate overfitting and lookahead bias. Our methodology combines interpretable hypothesis-driven signal generation with reinforcement learning and strict out-of-sample testing. The framework enforces strict information set discipline, employs rolling window validation across 34 independent test periods, maintains complete interpretability through natural language hypothesis explanations, and incorporates realistic transaction costs and position constraints. Validating five market microstructure patterns across 100 US equities from 2015 to 2024, the system yields modest annualized returns (0.55%, Sharpe ratio 0.33) with exceptional downside protection (maximum drawdown -2.76%) and market-neutral characteristics (beta = 0.058). Performance exhibits strong regime dependence, generating positive returns during high-volatility periods (0.60% quarterly, 2020-2024) while underperforming in stable markets (-0.16%, 2015-2019). We report statistically insignificant aggregate results (p-value 0.34) to demonstrate a reproducible, honest validation protocol that prioritizes interpretability and extends naturally to advanced hypothesis generators, including large language models. The key empirical finding reveals that daily OHLCV-based microstructure signals require elevated information arrival and trading activity to function effectively. The framework provides complete mathematical specifications and open-source implementation, establishing a template for rigorous trading system evaluation that addresses the reproducibility crisis in quantitative finance research. For researchers, practitioners, and regulators, this work demonstrates that interpretable algorithmic trading strategies can be rigorously validated without sacrificing transparency or regulatory compliance.

Loss of trainability refers to a phenomenon in continual learning where parameter updates no longer make progress on the optimization objective, so accuracy stalls or degrades as the learning problem changes over time. In this paper, we analyze loss of trainability through an optimization lens and find that the phenomenon is not reliably predicted by existing individual indicators such as Hessian rank, sharpness level, weight or gradient norms, gradient-to-parameter ratios, and unit-sign entropy. Motivated by our analysis, we introduce two complementary indicators: a batch-size-aware gradient-noise bound and a curvature volatility-controlled bound. We then combine these two indicators into a per-layer adaptive noise threshold on the effective step-size that anticipates trainability behavior. Using this insight, we propose a step-size scheduler that keeps each layer's effective parameter update below this bound, thereby avoiding loss of trainability. We demonstrate that our scheduler can improve the accuracy maintained by previously proposed approaches, such as concatenated ReLU (CReLU), Wasserstein regularizer, and L2 weight decay. Surprisingly, our scheduler produces adaptive step-size trajectories that, without tuning, mirror the manually engineered step-size decay schedules.

The rapid diffusion of autonomous pricing algorithms has reshaped competitive dynamics in digital marketplaces, raising important economic and policy questions about their potential for collusive behavior. A substantial body of research demonstrates that reinforcement-learning (RL) agents can autonomously coordinate on supracompetitive outcomes even in the absence of explicit communication. Foundational contributions--including the work in [1]--show that algorithmic agents may systematically learn tacitly collusive strategies across multiple market structures, with Q-learning in particular generating prices above competitive levels in Logit, Hotelling, and linear demand environments. These concerns are reinforced by seminal work such as [2], which demonstrates that simple Q-learning agents reliably sustain collusion through structured punishment and reward cycles in repeated pricing games, as well as by [3], who document how algorithmic systems may generate sudden price spikes in response to high-impact, low-probability events (HILP), unintentionally coordinating on elevated prices. The study of [4] establishes a robust empirical and computational foundation demonstrating that pricing algorithms may autonomously learn to collude. A complementary line of research focuses specifically on Q-learning's capacity to learn collusive equilibria, as documented in papers [2], [5], and [6]. These findings are consistent with the theoretical properties of Q-learning established by [7], who show that the algorithm incrementally learns long-run discounted value-maximizing strategies in sequential decision problems. More recent studies further reveal that deep reinforcement-learning (deep RL) algorithms--including DDQN and SAC--may also display collusive tendencies. For instance, [8] documents that modern RL systems can coordinate on higher-than-competitive prices under a variety of market configurations.

The financial market is a mission-critical playground for AI agents due to its temporal dynamics and low signal-to-noise ratio. Building an effective algorithmic trading system may require a professional team to develop and test over the years. In this paper, we propose an orchestration framework for financial agents, which aims to democratize financial intelligence to the general public. We map each component of the traditional algorithmic trading system to agents, including planner, orchestrator, alpha agents, risk agents, portfolio agents, backtest agents, execution agents, audit agents, and memory agent. We present two in-house trading examples. For the stock trading task (hourly data from 04/2024 to 12/2024), our approach achieved a return of $20.42\%$, a Sharpe ratio of 2.63, and a maximum drawdown of $-3.59\%$, while the S&P 500 index yielded a return of $15.97\%$. For the BTC trading task (minute data from 27/07/2025 to 13/08/2025), our approach achieved a return of $8.39\%$, a Sharpe ratio of $0.38$, and a maximum drawdown of $-2.80\%$, whereas the BTC price increased by $3.80\%$. Our code is available on \href{https://github.com/Open-Finance-Lab/AgenticTrading}{GitHub}.

Transformer models have become increasingly popular in financial applications, yet their potential risk making and biases remain under-explored. The purpose of this work is to audit the reliance of the model on volatile data for decision-making, and quantify how the frequency of price movements affects the model's prediction confidence. We employ a transformer model for prediction, and introduce a metric based on Partial Information Decomposition (PID) to measure the influence of each asset on the model's decision making. Our analysis reveals two key observations: first, the model disregards data volatility entirely, and second, it is biased toward data with lower-frequency price movements.

This study investigates the application of the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) model for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting of Bitcoin realized volatility. Utilizing a comprehensive set of 69 predictors -- encompassing market, behavioral, and macroeconomic indicators -- we evaluate the performance of LGBM-based models and compare them with both econometric and machine learning baselines. For probabilistic forecasting, we explore two quantile-based approaches: direct quantile regression using the pinball loss function, and a residual simulation method that transforms point forecasts into predictive distributions. To identify the main drivers of volatility, we employ gain-based and permutation feature importance techniques, consistently highlighting the significance of trading volume, lagged volatility measures, investor attention, and market capitalization. The results demonstrate that LGBM models effectively capture the nonlinear and high-variance characteristics of cryptocurrency markets while providing interpretable insights into the underlying volatility dynamics.

This paper introduces a hybrid framework for portfolio optimization that fuses Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) forecasting with a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) reinforcement learning strategy. The proposed system leverages the predictive power of deep recurrent networks to capture temporal dependencies, while the PPO agent adaptively refines portfolio allocations in continuous action spaces, allowing the system to anticipate trends while adjusting dynamically to market shifts. Using multi-asset datasets covering U.S. and Indonesian equities, U.S. Treasuries, and major cryptocurrencies from January 2018 to December 2024, the model is evaluated against several baselines, including equal-weight, index-style, and single-model variants (LSTM-only and PPO-only). The framework's performance is benchmarked against equal-weighted, index-based, and single-model approaches (LSTM-only and PPO-only) using annualized return, volatility, Sharpe ratio, and maximum drawdown metrics, each adjusted for transaction costs. The results indicate that the hybrid architecture delivers higher returns and stronger resilience under non-stationary market regimes, suggesting its promise as a robust, AI-driven framework for dynamic portfolio optimization.