Here, we show that marginal variance tends to increase along the causal order for generically sampled additivenoise models.

Simulated DAG models may exhibit properties that, perhaps inadvertently, render their structure identifiable and unexpectedly affect structure learning algorithms. Here, we show that marginal variance tends to increase along the causal order for generically sampled additive noise models. We introduce varsortability as a measure of the agreement between the order of increasing marginal variance and the causal order. For commonly sampled graphs and model parameters, we show that the remarkable performance of some continuous structure learning algorithms can be explained by high varsortability and matched by a simple baseline method. Yet, this performance may not transfer to real-world data where varsortability may be moderate or dependent on the choice of measurement scales. On standardized data, the same algorithms fail to identify the ground-truth DAG or its Markov equivalence class. While standardization removes the pattern in marginal variance, we show that data generating processes that incur high varsortability also leave a distinct covariance pattern that may be exploited even after standardization. Our findings challenge the significance of generic benchmarks with independently drawn parameters.

Here, we show that marginal variance tends to increase along the causal order for generically sampled additive noise models.

Here, we show that marginal variance tends to increase along the causal order for generically sampled additive noise models.

Causal discovery aims to extract qualitative causal knowledge in the form of causal graphs from data. Because causal ground truth is rarely known in the real world, simulated data plays a vital role in evaluating the performance of the various causal discovery algorithms proposed in the literature. But recent work highlighted certain artifacts of commonly used data generation techniques for a standard class of structural causal models (SCM) that may be nonphysical, including var- and R2-sortability, where the variables' variance and coefficients of determination (R2) after regressing on all other variables, respectively, increase along the causal order. Some causal methods exploit such artifacts, leading to unrealistic expectations for their performance on real-world data. Some modifications have been proposed to remove these artifacts; notably, the internally-standardized structural causal model (iSCM) avoids varsortability and largely alleviates R2-sortability on sparse causal graphs, but exhibits a reversed R2-sortability pattern for denser graphs not featured in their work. We analyze which sortability patterns we expect to see in real data, and propose a method for drawing coefficients that we argue more effectively samples the space of SCMs. Finally, we propose a novel extension of our SCM generation method to the time series setting.

Simulated DAG models may exhibit properties that, perhaps inadvertently, render their structure identifiable and unexpectedly affect structure learning algorithms. Here, we show that marginal variance tends to increase along the causal order for generically sampled additive noise models. We introduce varsortability as a measure of the agreement between the order of increasing marginal variance and the causal order. For commonly sampled graphs and model parameters, we show that the remarkable performance of some continuous structure learning algorithms can be explained by high varsortability and matched by a simple baseline method. Yet, this performance may not transfer to real-world data where varsortability may be moderate or dependent on the choice of measurement scales.

Evaluating the performance of causal discovery algorithms that aim to find causal relationships between time-dependent processes remains a challenging topic. In this paper, we show that certain characteristics of datasets, such as varsortability (Reisach et al. 2021) and $R^2$-sortability (Reisach et al. 2023), also occur in datasets for autocorrelated stationary time series. We illustrate this empirically using four types of data: simulated data based on SVAR models and Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graphs, the data used in the 2019 causality-for-climate challenge (Runge et al. 2019), real-world river stream datasets, and real-world data generated by the Causal Chamber of (Gamella et al. 2024). To do this, we adapt var- and $R^2$-sortability to time series data. We also investigate the extent to which the performance of score-based causal discovery methods goes hand in hand with high sortability. Arguably, our most surprising finding is that the investigated real-world datasets exhibit high varsortability and low $R^2$-sortability indicating that scales may carry a significant amount of causal information.

Causal structure learning (CSL) refers to the task of learning causal relationships from data. Advances in CSL now allow learning of causal graphs in diverse application domains, which has the potential to facilitate data-driven causal decision-making. Real-world CSL performance depends on a number of $\textit{context-specific}$ factors, including context-specific data distributions and non-linear dependencies, that are important in practical use-cases. However, our understanding of how to assess and select CSL methods in specific contexts remains limited. To address this gap, we present $\textit{CausalRegNet}$, a multiplicative effect structural causal model that allows for generating observational and interventional data incorporating context-specific properties, with a focus on the setting of gene perturbation experiments. Using real-world gene perturbation data, we show that CausalRegNet generates accurate distributions and scales far better than current simulation frameworks. We illustrate the use of CausalRegNet in assessing CSL methods in the context of interventional experiments in biology.

The number of artificial intelligence algorithms for learning causal models from data is growing rapidly. Most ``causal discovery'' or ``causal structure learning'' algorithms are primarily validated through simulation studies. However, no widely accepted simulation standards exist and publications often report conflicting performance statistics -- even when only considering publications that simulate data from linear models. In response, several manuscripts have criticized a popular simulation design for validating algorithms in the linear case. We propose a new simulation design for generating linear models for directed acyclic graphs (DAGs): the DAG-adaptation of the Onion (DaO) method. DaO simulations are fundamentally different from existing simulations because they prioritize the distribution of correlation matrices rather than the distribution of linear effects. Specifically, the DaO method uniformly samples the space of all correlation matrices consistent with (i.e. Markov to) a DAG. We also discuss how to sample DAGs and present methods for generating DAGs with scale-free in-degree or out-degree. We compare the DaO method against two alternative simulation designs and provide implementations of the DaO method in Python and R: https://github.com/bja43/DaO_simulation. We advocate for others to adopt DaO simulations as a fair universal benchmark.