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Arbitrage-Free Bond and Yield Curve Forecasting with Neural Filters under HJM Constraints

Gao, Xiang, Hyndman, Cody

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop an arbitrage-free deep learning framework for yield curve and bond price forecasting based on the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) term-structure model and a dynamic Nelson-Siegel parameterization of forward rates. Our approach embeds a no-arbitrage drift restriction into a neural state-space architecture by combining Kalman, extended Kalman, and particle filters with recurrent neural networks (LSTM/CLSTM), and introduces an explicit arbitrage error regularization (AER) term during training. The model is applied to U.S. Treasury and corporate bond data, and its performance is evaluated for both yield-space and price-space predictions at 1-day and 5-day horizons. Empirically, arbitrage regularization leads to its strongest improvements at short maturities, particularly in 5-day-ahead forecasts, increasing market-consistency as measured by bid-ask hit rates and reducing dollar-denominated prediction errors.


Transaction Profiling and Address Role Inference in Tokenized U.S. Treasuries

Luo, Junliang, Tinn, Katrin, Duran, Samuel Ferreira, Wu, Di, Liu, Xue

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Tokenized U.S. Treasuries have emerged as a prominent subclass of real-world assets (RWAs), offering cryptographically enforced, yield-bearing instruments collateralized by sovereign debt and deployed across multiple blockchain networks. While the market has expanded rapidly, empirical analyses of transaction-level behaviour remain limited. This paper conducts a quantitative, function-level dissection of U.S. Treasury-backed RWA tokens including BUIDL, BENJI, and USDY, across multi-chain: mostly Ethereum and Layer-2s. We analyze decoded contract calls to isolate core functional primitives such as issuance, redemption, transfer, and bridge activity, revealing segmentation in behaviour between institutional actors and retail users. To model address-level economic roles, we introduce a curvature-aware representation learning framework using Poincaré embeddings and liquidity-based graph features. Our method outperforms baseline models on our RWA Treasury dataset in role inference and generalizes to downstream tasks such as anomaly detection and wallet classification in broader blockchain transaction networks. These findings provide a structured understanding of functional heterogeneity and participant roles in tokenized Treasury in a transaction-level perspective, contributing new empirical evidence to the study of on-chain financialization.


Is Keir Starmer being advised by AI? The UK government won't tell us

New Scientist

Thousands of civil servants at the heart of the UK government, including those working directly to support Prime Minister Keir Starmer, are using a proprietary artificial intelligence chatbot to carry out their work, New Scientist can reveal. Officials have refused to disclose on the record exactly how the tool is being used, whether the prime minister is receiving advice that has been prepared using AI or how civil servants are mitigating the risks of inaccurate or biased AI outputs. Experts say the lack of disclosure raises concerns about government transparency and the accuracy of information being used in government. After securing the world-first release of ChatGPT logs under freedom of information (FOI) legislation, New Scientist asked 20 government departments for records of their interactions with Redbox, a generative AI tool developed in house and trialled among UK government staff. The large language model-powered chatbot allows users to interrogate government documents and to "generate first drafts of briefings", according to one of the people behind its development.


US finalises restrictions on AI, semiconductor investments in China

Al Jazeera

The United States has finalised rules that limit investments in critical technology sectors in China such as artificial intelligence on national security grounds, the Treasury Department has announced. The restrictions will bar US citizens and permanent residents, as well as US-based companies, from engaging in transactions involving technologies including AI, semiconductors and quantum computing, the Treasury said in a statement on Monday. US investors will also be obligated to inform the Treasury about investments in some less advanced technologies "that may contribute to the threat to the national security of the United States", the Treasury said. The curbs, which are due to take effect on January 2, will ensure "US investment is not exploited to advance the development of key technologies by those who may use them to threaten our national security," said Paul Rosen, the assistant secretary of the Treasury for Investment Security. "US investments, including the intangible benefits like managerial assistance and access to investment and talent networks that often accompany such capital flows, must not be used to help countries of concern develop their military, intelligence, and cyber capabilities," Rosen said.


US sanctions Chinese companies accused of making Russian drone parts

Al Jazeera

The United States Department of the Treasury has announced sanctions against Chinese makers of drone engines and parts that President Joe Biden's administration says have directly helped Russia mount long-range attacks in the war in Ukraine. The sanctions, issued on Thursday, target three entities and one individual for their involvement in the development and production of Russia's "Garpiya series" long-range attack drones. "The Garpiya has been deployed by Russia in its brutal war against Ukraine, destroying critical infrastructure and causing mass casualties," the Treasury Department said in a statement announcing the measures. "Designed and developed by People's Republic of China (PRC)-based experts, the Garpiya is produced at PRC-based factories in collaboration with Russian defense firms before transferring the drones to Russia for use against Ukraine." Russia has recently used long-range drone attacks to penetrate Ukraine's air defences, wreaking havoc across the country, including a missile strike in the city of Poltava that killed 55 people and wounded 328.


CultureVo: The Serious Game of Utilizing Gen AI for Enhancing Cultural Intelligence

Agarwala, Ajita, Purwar, Anupam, Rao, Viswanadhasai

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

CultureVo, Inc. has developed the Integrated Culture Learning Suite (ICLS) to deliver foundational knowledge of world cultures through a combination of interactive lessons and gamified experiences. This paper explores how Generative AI powered by open source Large Langauge Models are utilized within the ICLS to enhance cultural intelligence. The suite employs Generative AI techniques to automate the assessment of learner knowledge, analyze behavioral patterns, and manage interactions with non-player characters using real time learner assessment. Additionally, ICLS provides contextual hint and recommend course content by assessing learner proficiency, while Generative AI facilitates the automated creation and validation of educational content.


Treasury denies 1p and 2p coins are to be scrapped

BBC News

The Treasury has denied that copper coins are to be phased out after it ordered no new 1p and 2p pieces from the Royal Mint this year. "We are not scrapping 1p or 2p coins," a Treasury spokesperson told the BBC. They added that the lack of orders was due to there being enough coins already in circulation. The comments came after multiple reports suggested that the coins might be scrapped as the number of purchases involving cash continued to fall. "We are confident there are enough coins in the system without the need to order more this year," the Treasury said.


US proposes restrictions for investments in Chinese tech, AI

Al Jazeera

The United States Department of the Treasury has fleshed out a proposed rule that would restrict and monitor US investments in China for artificial intelligence, computer chips and quantum computing. The fleshed-out draft rule, issued on Friday, stems from President Joe Biden's August executive order regarding the access that "countries of concern" have to American dollars to fund advanced technologies that could enhance those nations' military, intelligence, surveillance and cyber-capabilities. The order identified China, Hong Kong and Macau as countries of concern. The Biden administration has sought to stymie the development of technologies by China, the world's second largest economy, that could give it a military edge or enable it to dominate emerging sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs). In addition to the proposed rule, Biden, a Democrat, has also placed a stiff tariff on Chinese EVs, an issue with political implications as Biden and his Republican presidential opponent Donald Trump are both trying to show voters who can best stand up to China, a geopolitical rival and major trading partner.


US imposes new sanctions on Iran after attack on Israel

Al Jazeera

The administration of United States President Joe Biden has imposed new sanctions on Iran in response to its missile and drone attack on Israel, as tensions mount over the possibility of further escalation in the Middle East. In a statement on Thursday, Biden said the sanctions targeted "leaders and entities connected to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran's Defense Ministry, and the Iranian government's missile and drone program that enabled" the April 13 attack on Israel. "As I discussed with my fellow G7 [Group of Seven] leaders the morning after the attack, we are committed to acting collectively to increase economic pressure on Iran," the US president said. "And our allies and partners have or will issue additional sanctions and measures to restrict Iran's destabilizing military programs." Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel in the early hours on Sunday, in retaliation for the deadly bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria's capital, Damascus, earlier this month.


This $6 trillion problem threatens to push inflation even higher

FOX News

Stanford Graduate School of Business lecturer Dave Dodson claims the Biden admin's handling of the economy is to'tinker' with it'like it's a video game' on'Your World with Neil Cavuto.' Following the 2008 global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve created trillions of dollars to ease financial conditions and keep banks afloat. Many economists predicted record inflation would result. But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke pulled an ace out of his sleeve. He paid banks to park much of that money at the Fed and limit its inflationary effects.