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 transmissibility


Inverse design of potential metastructures inspired from Indian medieval architectural elements

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this study, we immerse in the intricate world of patterns, examining the structural details of Indian medieval architecture for the discovery of motifs with great application potential from the mechanical metastructure perspective. The motifs that specifically engrossed us are derived from the tomb of I'timad-ud-Daula, situated in the city of Agra, close to the Taj Mahal. In an exploratory study, we designed nine interlaced metastructures inspired from the tomb's motifs. We fabricated the metastructures using additive manufacturing and studied their vibration characteristics experimentally and numerically. We also investigated bandgap modulation with metallic inserts in honeycomb interlaced metastructures. The comprehensive study of these metastructure panels reveals their high performance in controlling elastic wave propagation and generating suitable frequency bandgaps, hence having potential applications as waveguides for noise and vibration control. Finally, we developed a novel AI-based model trained on numerical datasets for the inverse design of metastructures with a desired bandgap.


Navigating the Peril of Generated Alternative Facts: A ChatGPT-4 Fabricated Omega Variant Case as a Cautionary Tale in Medical Misinformation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In an era where artificial intelligence (AI) intertwines with medical research, the delineation of truth becomes increasingly complex. This study ostensibly examines a purported novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, dubbed the Omega variant, showcasing 31 unique mutations in the S gene region. However, the real undercurrent of this narrative is a demonstration of the ease with which AI, specifically ChatGPT-4, can fabricate convincing yet entirely fictional scientific data. The so-called Omega variant was identified in a fully vaccinated, previously infected 35-year-old male presenting with severe COVID-19 symptoms. Through a detailed, albeit artificial, genomic analysis and contact tracing, this study mirrors the rigorous methodology of genuine case reports, thereby setting the stage for a compelling but entirely constructed narrative. The entire case study was generated by ChatGPT-4, a large language model by OpenAI. The fabricated Omega variant features an ensemble of mutations, including N501Y and E484K, known for enhancing ACE2 receptor affinity, alongside L452R and P681H, ostensibly indicative of immune evasion. This variant's contrived interaction dynamics - severe symptoms in a vaccinated individual versus mild ones in unvaccinated contacts - were designed to mimic real-world complexities, including suggestions of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). While the Omega variant is a product of AI-generated fiction, the implications of this exercise are real and profound. The ease with which AI can generate believable but false scientific information, as illustrated in this case, raises significant concerns about the potential for misinformation in medicine. This study, therefore, serves as a cautionary tale, emphasizing the necessity for critical evaluation of sources, especially in an age where AI tools like ChatGPT are becoming increasingly sophisticated and widespread in their use.


Digital Twin-Oriented Complex Networked Systems based on Heterogeneous Node Features and Interaction Rules

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study proposes an extendable modelling framework for Digital Twin-Oriented Complex Networked Systems (DT-CNSs) with a goal of generating networks that faithfully represent real systems. Modelling process focuses on (i) features of nodes and (ii) interaction rules for creating connections that are built based on individual node's preferences. We conduct experiments on simulation-based DT-CNSs that incorporate various features and rules about network growth and different transmissibilities related to an epidemic spread on these networks. We present a case study on disaster resilience of social networks given an epidemic outbreak by investigating the infection occurrence within specific time and social distance. The experimental results show how different levels of the structural and dynamics complexities, concerned with feature diversity and flexibility of interaction rules respectively, influence network growth and epidemic spread. The analysis revealed that, to achieve maximum disaster resilience, mitigation policies should be targeted at nodes with preferred features as they have higher infection risks and should be the focus of the epidemic control.


Machine Learning Extreme Acoustic Non-reciprocity in a Linear Waveguide with Multiple Nonlinear Asymmetric Gates

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This work is a study of acoustic non-reciprocity exhibited by a passive (i.e., with no active or semiactive feedback) one-dimensional (1D) linear waveguide incorporating two local strongly nonlinear, asymmetric gates. Strong coupling between the constituent oscillators of the linear waveguide is assumed, resulting in broadband capacity for wave transmission in its passband. Two local nonlinear gates break the symmetry and linearity of the waveguide, yielding strong global non-reciprocal acoustics, in the way that extremely different acoustical responses occur depending on the side of application of harmonic excitation, that is, for left-to-right (L-R) or right-to-left (R-L) wave propagation. To the authors' best knowledge that the present two-gated waveguide is capable of extremely high acoustic non-reciprocity, at a much higher level to what is reported by active or passive devices in the current literature; moreover, this extreme performance combines with acceptable levels of transmissibility in the desired (preferred) direction of wave propagation. Machine learning is utilized for predictive design of this gated waveguide in terms of the measures of transmissibility and non-reciprocity, with the aim of reducing the required computational time for high-dimensional parameter space analysis. The study sheds new light into the physics of these media and considers the advantages and limitations of using neural networks (NNs) to analyze this type of physical problems. In the predicted desirable parameter space for intense non-reciprocity, the maximum transmissibility reaches as much as 40%, and the transmitted energy from upstream (i.e., the part of the waveguide where the excitation is applied) to downstream (i.e., in the part of the waveguide after the two nonlinear gates) varies by up to nine orders of magnitude, depending on the direction of wave transmission. The machine learning tools along with the numerical methods of this work can inform predictive designs of practical non-reciprocal waveguides and acoustic metamaterials that incorporate local nonlinear gates. The current paper shows that combinations of nonlinear gates can lead to extremely high non-reciprocity while maintaining desired levels of transmissibility.


Cellular Automata Model for Non-Structural Proteins Comparing Transmissibility and Pathogenesis of SARS Covid (CoV-2, CoV) and MERS Covid

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Significantly higher transmissibility of SARS CoV-2 (2019) compared to SARS CoV (2003) can be attributed to mutations of structural proteins (Spike S, Nucleocapsid N, Membrane M, and Envelope E) and the role played by non-structural proteins (nsps) and accessory proteins (ORFs) for viral replication, assembly and shedding. The non-structural proteins (nsps) avail host protein synthesis machinery to initiate viral replication, along with neutralization of host immune defense. The key protein out of the 16 nsps, is the non-structural protein nsp1, also known as the leader protein. Nsp1 leads the process of hijacking host resources by blocking host translation. This paper concentrates on the analysis of nsps of SARS covid (CoV-2, CoV) and MERS covid based on Cellular Automata enhanced Machine Learning (CAML) model developed for study of biological strings. This computational model compares deviation of structure - function of CoV-2 from that of CoV employing CAML model parameters derived out of CA evolution of amino acid chains of nsps. This comparative analysis points to - (i) higher transmissibility of CoV-2 compared to CoV for major nsps, and (ii) deviation of MERS covid from SARS CoV in respect of virulence and pathogenesis. A Machine Learning (ML) framework has been designed to map the CAML model parameters to the physical domain features reported in in-vitro/in-vivo/in-silico experimental studies. The ML framework enables us to learn the permissible range of model parameters derived out of mutational study of sixteen nsps of three viruses.


Spatiotemporal invasion dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 emergence

Science

The B.1.1.7 lineage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused fast-spreading outbreaks globally. Intrinsically, this variant has greater transmissibility than its predecessors, but this capacity has been amplified in some circumstances to tragic effect by a combination of human behavior and local immunity. What are the extrinsic factors that help or hinder the rapid dissemination of variants? Kraemer et al. explored the invasion dynamics of B.1.1.7. in fine detail, from its location of origin in Kent, UK, to its heterogenous spread around the country. A combination of mobile phone and virus data including more than 17,000 genomes shows how distinct phases of dispersal were related to intensity of mobility and the timing of lockdowns. As the local outbreaks grew, importation from the London source area became less important. Had B.1.1.7. emerged at a slightly different time of year, its impact might have been different. Science , abj0113, this issue p. [889][1] Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7’s increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abj0113


Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Science

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the capacity to generate variants with major genomic changes. The UK variant B.1.1.7 (also known as VOC 202012/01) has many mutations that alter virus attachment and entry into human cells. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, Davies et al. characterized the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant in the United Kingdom. The authors found that the variant is 43 to 90% more transmissible than the predecessor lineage but saw no clear evidence for a change in disease severity, although enhanced transmission will lead to higher incidence and more hospital admissions. Large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur after the easing of control measures, and it may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to control the epidemic. Science , this issue p. [eabg3055][1] ### INTRODUCTION Several novel variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, emerged in late 2020. One of these, Variant of Concern (VOC) 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), was first detected in southeast England in September 2020 and spread to become the dominant lineage in the United Kingdom in just a few months. B.1.1.7 has since spread to at least 114 countries worldwide. ### RATIONALE The rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 suggests that it transmits more efficiently from person to person than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. This could lead to global surges in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths, so there is an urgent need to estimate how much more quickly VOC 202012/01 spreads, whether it is associated with greater or lesser severity of disease, and what control measures might be effective in mitigating its impact. We used social contact and mobility data, as well as demographic indicators linked to SARS-CoV-2 community testing data in England, to assess whether the spread of the new variant may be an artifact of higher baseline transmission rates in certain geographical areas or among specific demographic subpopulations. We then used a series of complementary statistical analyses and mathematical models to estimate the transmissibility of VOC 202012/01 across multiple datasets from the UK, Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States. Finally, we extended a mathematical model that has been extensively used to forecast COVID-19 dynamics in the UK to consider two competing SARS-CoV-2 lineages: VOC 202012/01 and preexisting variants. By fitting this model to a variety of data sources on infections, hospitalizations, and deaths across seven regions of England, we assessed different hypotheses for why the new variant appears to be spreading more quickly, estimated the severity of disease associated with the new variant, and evaluated control measures including vaccination and nonpharmaceutical interventions. Combining multiple lines of evidence allowed us to draw robust inferences. ### RESULTS The rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 is not an artifact of geographical differences in contact behavior and does not substantially differ by age, sex, or socioeconomic stratum. We estimate that the new variant has a 43 to 90% higher reproduction number (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) than preexisting variants. Similar increases are observed in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States. The most parsimonious explanation for this increase in the reproduction number is that people infected with VOC 202012/01 are more infectious than people infected with a preexisting variant, although there is also reasonable support for a longer infectious period and multiple mechanisms may be operating. Our estimates of severity are uncertain and are consistent with anything from a moderate decrease to a moderate increase in severity (e.g., 32% lower to 20% higher odds of death given infection). Nonetheless, our mathematical model, fitted to data up to 24 December 2020, predicted a large surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in 2021, which has been borne out so far by the observed burden in England up to the end of March 2021. In the absence of stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions and an accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 deaths in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020 in England. ### CONCLUSION More than 98% of positive SARS-CoV-2 infections in England are now due to VOC 202012/01, and the spread of this new variant has led to a surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Other countries should prepare for potentially similar outcomes. ![Figure][2] Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01. ( A ) Spread of VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7) in England. ( B ) The estimated relative transmissibility of VOC 202012/01 (mean and 95% confidence interval) is similar across the United Kingdom as a whole, England, Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States. ( C ) Projected COVID-19 deaths (median and 95% confidence interval) in England, 15 December 2020 to 30 June 2021. Vaccine rollout and control measures help to mitigate the burden of VOC 202012/01. A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States. [1]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.abg3055 [2]: pending:yes


Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses

Science

Enteroviruses are important drivers of global health, but few countries undertake enterovirus surveillance. Pons-Salort and Grassly used Japanese surveillance data to model the interplay between the ratio of susceptible and immune individuals, accounting for declining birth and death rates, incomplete surveillance, and seasonality of infection (see the Perspective by Nikolay and Cauchemez). Enteroviruses have highly predictable yet highly nonlinear dynamics. The model also reveals signatures of increased pathogenicity and of antigenic change and transmissibility. Science, this issue p. 800; see also p. 755 Human enteroviruses are a major cause of neurological and other diseases.


What Stops Social Epidemics?

AAAI Conferences

Theoretical progress in understanding the dynamics of spreading processes on graphs suggests the existence of an epidemic threshold below which no epidemics form and above which epidemics spread to a significant fraction of the graph. We have observed information cascades on the social media site Digg that spread fast enough for one initial spreader to infect hundreds of people, yet end up affecting only 0.1% of the entire network. We find that two effects, previously studied in isolation, combine cooperatively to drastically limit the final size of cascades on Digg. First, because of the highly clustered structure of the Digg network, most people who are aware of a story have been exposed to it via multiple friends. This structure lowers the epidemic threshold while moderately slowing the overall growth of cascades. In addition, we find that the mechanism for social contagion on Digg points to a fundamental difference between information spread and other contagion processes: despite multiple opportunities for infection within a social group, people are less likely to become spreaders of information with repeated exposure. The consequences of this mechanism become more pronounced for more clustered graphs. Ultimately, this effect severely curtails the size of social epidemics on Digg.