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Causal-driven attribution (CDA): Estimating channel influence without user-level data

Filippou, Georgios, Quach, Boi Mai, Lenghel, Diana, White, Arthur, Jha, Ashish Kumar

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Attribution modelling lies at the heart of marketing effectiveness, yet most existing approaches depend on user-level path data, which are increasingly inaccessible due to privacy regulations and platform restrictions. This paper introduces a Causal-Driven Attribution (CDA) framework that infers channel influence using only aggregated impression-level data, avoiding any reliance on user identifiers or click-path tracking. CDA integrates temporal causal discovery (using PCMCI) with causal effect estimation via a Structural Causal Model to recover directional channel relationships and quantify their contributions to conversions. Using large-scale synthetic data designed to replicate real marketing dynamics, we show that CDA achieves an average relative RMSE of 9.50% when given the true causal graph, and 24.23% when using the predicted graph, demonstrating strong accuracy under correct structure and meaningful signal recovery even under structural uncertainty. CDA captures cross-channel interdependencies while providing interpretable, privacy-preserving attribution insights, offering a scalable and future-proof alternative to traditional path-based models.


LiDDA: Data Driven Attribution at LinkedIn

Bencina, John, Aykutlug, Erkut, Chen, Yue, Zhang, Zerui, Sorenson, Stephanie, Tang, Shao, Wei, Changshuai

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data Driven Attribution, which assigns conversion credits to marketing interactions based on causal patterns learned from data, is the foundation of modern marketing intelligence and vital to any marketing businesses and advertising platform. In this paper, we introduce a unified transformer-based attribution approach that can handle member-level data, aggregate-level data, and integration of external macro factors. We detail the large scale implementation of the approach at LinkedIn, showcasing significant impact. We also share learning and insights that are broadly applicable to the marketing and ad tech fields.


Generative AI Enhances Team Performance and Reduces Need for Traditional Teams

Li, Ning, Zhou, Huaikang, Mikel-Hong, Kris

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advancements in generative artificial intelligence (AI) have transformed collaborative work processes, yet the impact on team performance remains underexplored. Here we examine the role of generative AI in enhancing or replacing traditional team dynamics using a randomized controlled experiment with 435 participants across 122 teams. We show that teams augmented with generative AI significantly outperformed those relying solely on human collaboration across various performance measures. Interestingly, teams with multiple AIs did not exhibit further gains, indicating diminishing returns with increased AI integration. Our analysis suggests that centralized AI usage by a few team members is more effective than distributed engagement. Additionally, individual-AI pairs matched the performance of conventional teams, suggesting a reduced need for traditional team structures in some contexts. However, despite this capability, individual-AI pairs still fell short of the performance levels achieved by AI-assisted teams. These findings underscore that while generative AI can replace some traditional team functions, more comprehensively integrating AI within team structures provides superior benefits, enhancing overall effectiveness beyond individual efforts.


Beyond Scaling: Predicting Patent Approval with Domain-specific Fine-grained Claim Dependency Graph

Gao, Xiaochen Kev, Yao, Feng, Zhao, Kewen, He, Beilei, Kumar, Animesh, Krishnan, Vish, Shang, Jingbo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Model scaling is becoming the default choice for many language tasks due to the success of large language models (LLMs). However, it can fall short in specific scenarios where simple customized methods excel. In this paper, we delve into the patent approval pre-diction task and unveil that simple domain-specific graph methods outperform enlarging the model, using the intrinsic dependencies within the patent data. Specifically, we first extend the embedding-based state-of-the-art (SOTA) by scaling up its backbone model with various sizes of open-source LLMs, then explore prompt-based methods to harness proprietary LLMs' potential, but find the best results close to random guessing, underlining the ineffectiveness of model scaling-up. Hence, we propose a novel Fine-grained cLAim depeNdency (FLAN) Graph through meticulous patent data analyses, capturing the inherent dependencies across segments of the patent text. As it is model-agnostic, we apply cost-effective graph models to our FLAN Graph to obtain representations for approval prediction. Extensive experiments and detailed analyses prove that incorporating FLAN Graph via various graph models consistently outperforms all LLM baselines significantly. We hope that our observations and analyses in this paper can bring more attention to this challenging task and prompt further research into the limitations of LLMs. Our source code and dataset can be obtained from http://github.com/ShangDataLab/FLAN-Graph.


DCRMTA: Unbiased Causal Representation for Multi-touch Attribution

Tang, Jiaming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-touch attribution (MTA) currently plays a pivotal role in achieving a fair estimation of the contributions of each advertising touchpoint to-wards conversion behavior, deeply influencing budget allocation and advertising recommenda-tion. Previous works attempted to eliminate the bias caused by user preferences to achieve the unbiased assumption of the conversion model. The multi-model collaboration method is not ef-ficient, and the complete elimination of user in-fluence also eliminates the causal effect of user features on conversion, resulting in limited per-formance of the conversion model. This paper re-defines the causal effect of user features on con-versions and proposes a novel end-to-end ap-proach, Deep Causal Representation for MTA (DCRMTA). Our model focuses on extracting causa features between conversions and users while eliminating confounding variables. Fur-thermore, extensive experiments demonstrate DCRMTA's superior performance in converting prediction across varying data distributions, while also effectively attributing value across dif-ferent advertising channels.


The next frontier of customer engagement: AI-enabled customer service

#artificialintelligence

How to engage customers--and keep them engaged--is a focal question for organizations across the business-to-consumer (B2C) landscape, where disintermediation by digital platforms continues to erode traditional business models. Engaged customers are more loyal, have more touchpoints with their chosen brands, and deliver greater value over their lifetime. Yet financial institutions have often struggled to secure the deep consumer engagement typical in other mobile app–intermediated services. The average visit to a bank app lasts only half as long as a visit to an online shopping app, and only one-quarter as long as a visit to a gaming app. Hence, customer service offers one of the few opportunities available to transform financial-services interactions into memorable and long-lasting engagements.


A Graphical Point Process Framework for Understanding Removal Effects in Multi-Touch Attribution

Tao, Jun, Chen, Qian, Snyder, James W. Jr., Kumar, Arava Sai, Meisami, Amirhossein, Xue, Lingzhou

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Marketers employ various online advertising channels to reach customers, and they are particularly interested in attribution for measuring the degree to which individual touchpoints contribute to an eventual conversion. The availability of individual customer-level path-to-purchase data and the increasing number of online marketing channels and types of touchpoints bring new challenges to this fundamental problem. We aim to tackle the attribution problem with finer granularity by conducting attribution at the path level. To this end, we develop a novel graphical point process framework to study the direct conversion effects and the full relational structure among numerous types of touchpoints simultaneously. Utilizing the temporal point process of conversion and the graphical structure, we further propose graphical attribution methods to allocate proper path-level conversion credit, called the attribution score, to individual touchpoints or corresponding channels for each customer's path to purchase. Our proposed attribution methods consider the attribution score as the removal effect, and we use the rigorous probabilistic definition to derive two types of removal effects. We examine the performance of our proposed methods in extensive simulation studies and compare their performance with commonly used attribution models. We also demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods in a real-world attribution application.


How insurers can win the race to AI maturity

#artificialintelligence

Artificial intelligence has been around since the 1950s, but over the last several years the business potential of AI has expanded dramatically. We now live in a world where big data and powerful computational capabilities allow AI to flourish. Companies--including insurance carriers--are investing in establishing data lakes, optimizing for cloud-based operations and activating AI for targeted analytics. Insurers are seeing tangible results from their current AI initiatives. Our AI maturity research shows that carriers' share of cost savings generated through AI more than doubled between 2018 and 2021.


How personalization at scale can invigorate Asian insurers

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Compared with industries such as consumer packaged goods, retail, media, and entertainment, insurance companies worldwide have relatively limited direct contact and engagement with their customers. Paying premiums and submitting claims is still the extent of most customers' interactions with companies after they purchase a policy. Insurers have improved and broadened their digital capabilities in engagement platforms, marketing programs, advisory tools for agents, and more. Our analysis of Asian insurers' current digital capabilities finds that most have moved past initial investments that enabled them to execute mass campaigns online. The majority have created large grouping segments or customer profiles based on demographics, life stages, or measures of customer value.


Genesys says Cloud AI Experience helps businesses listen to and understand customers

#artificialintelligence

Join us on November 9 to learn how to successfully innovate and achieve efficiency by upskilling and scaling citizen developers at the Low-Code/No-Code Summit. Many organizations are challenged with finding strategies to deal with rising customer volume and changes in expectations, while facing an uncertain business market, according to Genesys, a provider of contact center services. While they are pressured to deliver better experiences with less, many organizations are hamstrung by legacy business processes, siloed point solutions and insufficient technical resources. This is where artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have the potential to help, since most lack the data scientists and resources to implement and deploy technologies orientated around their customers and employees while still supporting business objectives, Genesys said. In a move to help organizations optimize customer journeys with new experience orchestration capabilities, Genesys last week unveiled Cloud AI Experience.