Scientists Thought Parkinson's Was in Our Genes. New ideas about chronic illness could revolutionize treatment, if we take the research seriously. Amy Lindberg spent 26 years in the Navy and she still walked like it--with intention, like her chin had someplace to be. But around 2017, her right foot stopped following orders. Lindberg and her husband Brad were five years into their retirement. After moving 10 times for Uncle Sam, they'd bought their dream house near the North Carolina coast. They had a backyard that spilled out onto wetlands. From the kitchen, you could see cranes hunting. They kept bees and played pickleball and watched their children grow. But now Lindberg's right foot was out of rhythm. She worked hard to ignore it, but she couldn't disregard the tremors.

While the expected calibration error (ECE), which employs binning, is widely adopted to evaluate the calibration performance of machine learning models, theoretical understanding of its estimation bias is limited. In this paper, we present the first comprehensive analysis of the estimation bias in the two common binning strategies, uniform mass and uniform width binning . Our analysis establishes upper bounds on the bias, achieving an improved convergence rate. Moreover, our bounds reveal, for the first time, the optimal number of bins to minimize the estimation bias. We further extend our bias analysis to generalization error analysis based on the information-theoretic approach, deriving upper bounds that enable the numerical evaluation of how small the ECE is for unknown data. Experiments using deep learning models show that our bounds are nonvacuous thanks to this information-theoretic generalization analysis approach.

In the identification of new planetary candidates in transit surveys, the employment of Deep Learning models proved to be essential to efficiently analyse a continuously growing volume of photometric observations. To further improve the robustness of these models, it is necessary to exploit the complementarity of data collected from different transit surveys such as NASA's Kepler, Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), and, in the near future, the ESA PLAnetary Transits and Oscillation of stars (PLATO) mission. In this work, we present a Deep Learning model, named DART-Vetter, able to distinguish planetary candidates (PC) from false positives signals (NPC) detected by any potential transiting survey. DART-Vetter is a Convolutional Neural Network that processes only the light curves folded on the period of the relative signal, featuring a simpler and more compact architecture with respect to other triaging and/or vetting models available in the literature. We trained and tested DART-Vetter on several dataset of publicly available and homogeneously labelled TESS and Kepler light curves in order to prove the effectiveness of our model. Despite its simplicity, DART-Vetter achieves highly competitive triaging performance, with a recall rate of 91% on an ensemble of TESS and Kepler data, when compared to Exominer and Astronet-Triage. Its compact, open source and easy to replicate architecture makes DART-Vetter a particularly useful tool for automatizing triaging procedures or assisting human vetters, showing a discrete generalization on TCEs with Multiple Event Statistic (MES) > 20 and orbital period < 50 days.

We present ExoMiner++, an enhanced deep learning model that builds on the success of ExoMiner to improve transit signal classification in 2-minute TESS data. ExoMiner++ incorporates additional diagnostic inputs, including periodogram, flux trend, difference image, unfolded flux, and spacecraft attitude control data, all of which are crucial for effectively distinguishing transit signals from more challenging sources of false positives. To further enhance performance, we leverage transfer learning from high-quality labeled data from the Kepler space telescope, mitigating the impact of TESS's noisier and more ambiguous labels. ExoMiner++ achieves high accuracy across various classification and ranking metrics, significantly narrowing the search space for follow-up investigations to confirm new planets. To serve the exoplanet community, we introduce new TESS catalogs containing ExoMiner++ classifications and confidence scores for each transit signal. Among the 147,568 unlabeled TCEs, ExoMiner++ identifies 7,330 as planet candidates, with the remainder classified as false positives. These 7,330 planet candidates correspond to 1,868 existing TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs), 69 Community TESS Objects of Interest (CTOIs), and 50 newly introduced CTOIs. 1,797 out of the 2,506 TOIs previously labeled as planet candidates in ExoFOP are classified as planet candidates by ExoMiner++. This reduction in plausible candidates combined with the excellent ranking quality of ExoMiner++ allows the follow-up efforts to be focused on the most likely candidates, increasing the overall planet yield.

Nonparametric estimation with binning is widely employed in the calibration error evaluation and the recalibration of machine learning models. Recently, theoretical analyses of the bias induced by this estimation approach have been actively pursued; however, the understanding of the generalization of the calibration error to unknown data remains limited. In addition, although many recalibration algorithms have been proposed, their generalization performance lacks theoretical guarantees. To address this problem, we conduct a generalization analysis of the calibration error under the probably approximately correct (PAC) Bayes framework. This approach enables us to derive a first optimizable upper bound for the generalization error in the calibration context. We then propose a generalization-aware recalibration algorithm based on our generalization theory. Numerical experiments show that our algorithm improves the Gaussian-process-based recalibration performance on various benchmark datasets and models.

While the expected calibration error (ECE), which employs binning, is widely adopted to evaluate the calibration performance of machine learning models, theoretical understanding of its estimation bias is limited. In this paper, we present the first comprehensive analysis of the estimation bias in the two common binning strategies, uniform mass and uniform width binning. Our analysis establishes upper bounds on the bias, achieving an improved convergence rate. Moreover, our bounds reveal, for the first time, the optimal number of bins to minimize the estimation bias. We further extend our bias analysis to generalization error analysis based on the information-theoretic approach, deriving upper bounds that enable the numerical evaluation of how small the ECE is for unknown data. Experiments using deep learning models show that our bounds are nonvacuous thanks to this information-theoretic generalization analysis approach.

Rigorous evaluation of the causal effects of semantic features on language model predictions can be hard to achieve for natural language reasoning problems. However, this is such a desirable form of analysis from both an interpretability and model evaluation perspective, that it is valuable to investigate specific patterns of reasoning with enough structure and regularity to identify and quantify systematic reasoning failures in widely-used models. In this vein, we pick a portion of the NLI task for which an explicit causal diagram can be systematically constructed: the case where across two sentences (the premise and hypothesis), two related words/terms occur in a shared context. In this work, we apply causal effect estimation strategies to measure the effect of context interventions (whose effect on the entailment label is mediated by the semantic monotonicity characteristic) and interventions on the inserted word-pair (whose effect on the entailment label is mediated by the relation between these words). Extending related work on causal analysis of NLP models in different settings, we perform an extensive interventional study on the NLI task to investigate robustness to irrelevant changes and sensitivity to impactful changes of Transformers. The results strongly bolster the fact that similar benchmark accuracy scores may be observed for models that exhibit very different behaviour. Moreover, our methodology reinforces previously suspected biases from a causal perspective, including biases in favour of upward-monotone contexts and ignoring the effects of negation markers.

Quality and diversity have been proposed as reasonable heuristics for assessing content generated by co-creative systems, but to date there has been little agreement around what constitutes the latter or how to measure it. Proposed approaches for assessing generative models in terms of diversity have limitations in that they compare the model's outputs to a ground truth that in the era of large pre-trained generative models might not be available, or entail an impractical number of computations. We propose an alternative based on entropy of neural network encodings for comparing diversity between sets of images that does not require ground-truth knowledge and is easy to compute. We also compare two pre-trained networks and show how the choice relates to the notion of diversity that we want to evaluate. We conclude with a discussion of the potential applications of these measures for ideation in interactive systems, model evaluation, and more broadly within computational creativity.

Current advancements in reinforcement learning (RL) have predominantly focused on learning step-based policies that generate actions for each perceived state. While these methods efficiently leverage step information from environmental interaction, they often ignore the temporal correlation between actions, resulting in inefficient exploration and unsmooth trajectories that are challenging to implement on real hardware. Episodic RL (ERL) seeks to overcome these challenges by exploring in parameters space that capture the correlation of actions. However, these approaches typically compromise data efficiency, as they treat trajectories as opaque \emph{black boxes}. In this work, we introduce a novel ERL algorithm, Temporally-Correlated Episodic RL (TCE), which effectively utilizes step information in episodic policy updates, opening the 'black box' in existing ERL methods while retaining the smooth and consistent exploration in parameter space. TCE synergistically combines the advantages of step-based and episodic RL, achieving comparable performance to recent ERL methods while maintaining data efficiency akin to state-of-the-art (SoTA) step-based RL.