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Regulatory frameworks, such as the EUAIAct, encourage openness of generalpurpose AI models by offering legal exemptions for "open-source" models. Despite this legislative attention on openness, the definition of open-source foundation models remains ambiguous.

Time series forecasting drives operational decisions in areas like finance, transportation, and energy. While supervised learning approaches achieve strong performance, they require domain-specific training, feature engineering, and ongoing maintenance. Large-scale foundation models have recently emerged as a zero-shot alternative, avoiding task-specific training much like LLMs. In this work, we evaluate foundation models against standard supervised approaches. Rather than focusing solely on aggregate accuracy, we analyze performance across four operational regimes: periodic human-centric systems, physically constrained processes, stochastic financial markets, and heterogeneous demand forecasting. Our results characterize optimal deployment areas. Foundation models perform well in domains with transferable periodic structures and are efficient for cold-start or long-tail scenarios. Conversely, supervised specialists maintain higher precision in systems governed by strict physical constraints. In financial domains, newer foundation models are rapidly closing the performance gap with supervised specialists. We further quantify trade-offs in inference latency, data drift adaptability, and deployment constraints. Finally, we propose a Complexity Router that assigns each series to the optimal model class using empirical features. We demonstrate that this selective routing achieves higher accuracy and significantly lower inference costs compared to deploying a universal foundation model, providing a practical framework for balancing generalization and efficiency.

Diffusion models are increasingly used as powerful conditional generators, yet real deployments often involve multiple target distributions arising from different tasks, e.g., diverse prompt domains in text-to-image generation, or multiple environments in robotics with diffusion policies. This naturally leads to a multi-objective learning (MOL) problem. A key challenge is that achieving good Pareto trade-offs can require a generalist model class with substantially larger capacity than what suffices for solving any individual task, thereby increasing statistical cost since sample complexity typically scales with the model complexity. To reconcile this, we develop a principled MOL framework for diffusion models with limited data: a semi-supervised regime where paired (labeled) samples are scarce, but (unlabeled) condition data are abundant. We propose a two-stage training procedure that first fits lightweight specialist models from limited paired data, and then distills them into a generalist model by generating pseudo-samples. We establish generalization bounds showing that the required number of paired samples only depends on the complexity of the specialist model classes. We further extend the theory to diffusion policies for sequential decision making to account for distribution shift in on-policy rollouts. Extensive experiments on robotic control and image restoration tasks are conducted to verify our theoretical results.

We study post-hoc Learning to Defer (L2D) through the lens of ideal distributions: divergence-regularized reweightings of the data distribution under which a model attains low loss. We define deferral via the density-ratio between a model's and an expert's ideals. Using the reduction from density-ratio estimation to class-probability estimation, we derive the DR CPE losses for post-hoc L2D scorers. Deferral decisions are then made by thresholding the scorer, allowing deferral rates to be adjusted without retraining. For KL-based ideal distributions, our deferral rules recovers Chow's rule under the original distribution and a connection to an expert-tilted Bayes posterior -- which incorporates the expert's performance -- depending on if the ideal distributions are joint or marginal distributions. Experimentally, our approach is competitive compared to common baselines and more robust across dataset settings. More broadly, our results cast post-hoc L2D as density-ratio learning between ideal distributions, bridging Chow-style rules, expert comparison, and elucidating connections to related learning settings including anomaly detection.

We consider running multiple instances of multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems in parallel. A main motivation for this study are online recommendation systems, in which each of N users is associated with a MAB problem and the goal is to exploit users' similarity in order to learn users' preferences to K items more efficiently. We consider the adversarial MAB setting, whereby an adversary is free to choose which user and which loss to present to the learner during the learning process. Users are in a social network and the learner is aided by a-priori knowledge of the strengths of the social links between all pairs of users. It is assumed that if the social link between two users is strong then they tend to share the same action.

In this paper, we show that partner specialization, in addition to diversity, is crucial for the robustness of a downstream generalist agent.

We highlight improvementsofbothalgorithms overrunning independent standard MABsacross users.