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Forecasting the Future with Yesterday's Climate: Temperature Bias in AI Weather and Climate Models

Landsberg, Jacob B., Barnes, Elizabeth A.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI-based climate and weather models have rapidly gained popularity, providing faster forecasts with skill that can match or even surpass that of traditional dynamical models. Despite this success, these models face a key challenge: predicting future climates while being trained only with historical data. In this study, we investigate this issue by analyzing boreal winter land temperature biases in AI weather and climate models. We examine two weather models, FourCastNet V2 Small (FourCastNet) and Pangu Weather (Pangu), evaluating their predictions for 2020-2025 and Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 (ACE2) for 1996-2010. These time periods lie outside of the respective models' training sets and are significantly more recent than the bulk of their training data, allowing us to assess how well the models generalize to new, i.e. more modern, conditions. We find that all three models produce cold-biased mean temperatures, resembling climates from 15-20 years earlier than the period they are predicting. In some regions, like the Eastern U.S., the predictions resemble climates from as much as 20-30 years earlier. Further analysis shows that FourCastNet's and Pangu's cold bias is strongest in the hottest predicted temperatures, indicating limited training exposure to modern extreme heat events. In contrast, ACE2's bias is more evenly distributed but largest in regions, seasons, and parts of the temperature distribution where climate change has been most pronounced. These findings underscore the challenge of training AI models exclusively on historical data and highlight the need to account for such biases when applying them to future climate prediction.


Real-time Air Pollution prediction model based on Spatiotemporal Big data

Le, Van-Duc, Bui, Tien-Cuong, Cha, Sang Kyun

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Air pollution is one of the most concerns for urban areas. Many countries have constructed monitoring stations to hourly collect pollution values. Recently, there is a research in Daegu city, Korea for real-time air quality monitoring via sensors installed on taxis running across the whole city. The collected data is huge (1-second interval) and in both Spatial and Temporal format. In this paper, based on this spatiotemporal Big data, we propose a real-time air pollution prediction model based on Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) algorithm for image-like Spatial distribution of air pollution. Regarding to Temporal information in the data, we introduce a combination of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) unit for time series data and a Neural Network model for other air pollution impact factors such as weather conditions to build a hybrid prediction model. This model is simple in architecture but still brings good prediction ability.


Anomaly Detection in High-Dimensional Bank Account Balances via Robust Methods

Maddanu, Federico, Proietti, Tommaso, Crupi, Riccardo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Detecting point anomalies in bank account balances is essential for financial institutions, as it enables the identification of potential fraud, operational issues, or other irregularities. Robust statistics is useful for flagging outliers and for providing estimates of the data distribution parameters that are not affected by contaminated observations. However, such a strategy is often less efficient and computationally expensive under high dimensional setting. In this paper, we propose and evaluate empirically several robust approaches that may be computationally efficient in medium and high dimensional datasets, with high breakdown points and low computational time. Our application deals with around 2.6 million daily records of anonymous users' bank account balances.


Evaluating Embedding Models and Pipeline Optimization for AI Search Quality

Zhong, Philip, Chen, Kent, Wang, Don

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We evaluate the performance of various text embedding models and pipeline configurations for AI-driven search systems. We compare sentence-transformer and generative embedding models (e.g., All-MPNet, BGE, GTE, and Qwen) at different dimensions, indexing methods (Milvus HNSW/IVF), and chunking strategies. A custom evaluation dataset of 11,975 query-chunk pairs was synthesized from US City Council meeting transcripts using a local large language model (LLM). The data pipeline includes preprocessing, automated question generation per chunk, manual validation, and continuous integration/continuous deployment (CI/CD) integration. We measure retrieval accuracy using reference-based metrics: Top-K Accuracy and Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (NDCG). Our results demonstrate that higher-dimensional embeddings significantly boost search quality (e.g., Qwen3-Embedding-8B/4096 achieves Top-3 accuracy about 0.571 versus 0.412 for GTE-large/1024), and that neural re-rankers (e.g., a BGE cross-encoder) further improve ranking accuracy (Top-3 up to 0.527). Finer-grained chunking (512 characters versus 2000 characters) also improves accuracy. We discuss the impact of these factors and outline future directions for pipeline automation and evaluation.


Assessing the alignment between infants' visual and linguistic experience using multimodal language models

Tan, Alvin Wei Ming, Yang, Jane, Sepuri, Tarun, Aw, Khai Loong, Sparks, Robert Z., Yin, Zi, Marchman, Virginia A., Frank, Michael C., Long, Bria

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Figuring out which objects or concepts words refer to is a central language learning challenge for young children. Most models of this process posit that children learn early object labels from co-occurrences of words and their referents that occur when someone around them talks about an object in the immediate physical environment. But how aligned in time are children's visual and linguistic experiences during everyday learning? To date, answers to this question have been limited by the need for labor-intensive manual annotations of vision-language co-occurrences. Here, we evaluate the use of contrastive language-image pretraining (CLIP) models to automatically characterize vision-language alignment in egocentric videos taken from the infant perspective in home environments. After validating CLIP alignment scores using human alignment judgments, we apply this metric to a large corpus of infant-perspective videos. We show that idealized aligned moments for learning (e.g., "look at the ball" with a ball present in the child's view) are relatively rare in children's everyday experiences compared to modern machine learning datasets, and highlight variability in alignment both within and across children. These findings suggest that infrequent alignment is a constraint for models describing early word learning and offer a new method for investigating children's multimodal environment.


Strategic Decision Framework for Enterprise LLM Adoption

Trusov, Michael, Hwang, Minha, Jamal, Zainab, Chandra, Swarup

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Organizations are rapidly adopting Large Language Models (LLMs) to transform their operations, yet they lack clear guidance on key decisions for adoption and implementation. While LLMs offer powerful capabilities in content generation, assisted coding, and process automation, businesses face critical challenges in data security, LLM solution development approach, infrastructure requirements, and deployment strategies. Healthcare providers must protect patient data while leveraging LLMs for medical analysis, financial institutions need to balance automated customer service with regulatory compliance, and software companies seek to enhance development productivity while maintaining code security. This article presents a systematic six-step decision framework for LLM adoption, helping organizations navigate from initial application selection to final deployment. Based on extensive interviews and analysis of successful and failed implementations, our framework provides practical guidance for business leaders to align technological capabilities with business objectives. Through key decision points and real-world examples from both B2B and B2C contexts, organizations can make informed decisions about LLM adoption while ensuring secure and efficient integration across various use cases, from customer service automation to content creation and advanced analytics.




Optimal Transport of Classifiers to Fairness: Appendix A Derivations and Proofs

Neural Information Processing Systems

It is then longer interesting as a fairness regularization term. Y et, our intention is to avoid transports between inputs that are highly dissimilar. In our formulation, we use Eq. The data is highly anonymized. The task is to predict whether an individual earns more than $50K/yr.