Complex events such as wildfires, floods, and heatwaves are no longer isolated phenomena but interlinked hazards that propagate through interconnected infrastructure networks. When one system fails, others that depend on it often cascade toward collapse, producing widespread disruption and social inequity. Recent crises including the 2023 Vermont flooding, the 2024 Texas winter freeze, and the 2025 Southern California wildfire illustrate how climate - amplified events can simultaneously strain energy, water, communication, and transportation systems. Traditional risk assessments, which often treat hazards as discrete and static events, are insufficient to capture the evolving and compounding nature of modern disasters. Digital Twin (DT) technology offers a promising avenue for improving situational awareness and decision - making under such conditions. Originally introduced for aerospace engineering and later adopted across industrial sectors, DTs create real - time virtual counterparts of physical systems using sensor data, predictive modeling, and feedback control (Grieves & Vickers, 2018; Tao et al., 2019) . Within the built environment, DTs have been applied to asset monitoring, predictive maintenance, and urban system management (Errandonea et al., 2020; Fogli, 2019; Fuller et al., 2020) . However, most conventional DTs rely on stable connectivity, complete datasets, and deterministic control assumptions that are not held during crises characterized by cascading failures and data disruption. To address these challenges, the concept of the Risk - Informed Digital Twin (RDT) integrates probabilistic modeling, uncertainty quantification, and decision support within the DT architecture (Pignatta & Alibrandi, 2022; Zio & Miqueles, 2024) .

Companion paper [118] developed a powerful \emph{Random duality theory} (RDT) based analytical program to statistically characterize performance of \emph{descending} phase retrieval algorithms (dPR) (these include all variants of gradient descents and among them widely popular Wirtinger flows). We here generalize the program and show how it can be utilized to handle rank $d$ positive definite phase retrieval (PR) measurements (with special cases $d=1$ and $d=2$ serving as emulations of the real and complex phase retrievals, respectively). In particular, we observe that the minimal sample complexity ratio (number of measurements scaled by the dimension of the unknown signal) which ensures dPR's success exhibits a phase transition (PT) phenomenon. For both plain and lifted RDT we determine phase transitions locations. To complement theoretical results we implement a log barrier gradient descent variant and observe that, even in small dimensional scenarios (with problem sizes on the order of 100), the simulated phase transitions are in an excellent agreement with the theoretical predictions.

We study theoretical limits of \emph{descending} phase retrieval algorithms. Utilizing \emph{Random duality theory} (RDT) we develop a generic program that allows statistical characterization of various algorithmic performance metrics. Through these we identify the concepts of \emph{parametric manifold} and its \emph{funneling points} as key mathematical objects that govern the underlying algorithms' behavior. An isomorphism between single funneling point manifolds and global convergence of descending algorithms is established. The structure and shape of the parametric manifold as well as its dependence on the sample complexity are studied through both plain and lifted RDT. Emergence of a phase transition is observed. Namely, as sample complexity increases, parametric manifold transitions from a multi to a single funneling point structure. This in return corresponds to a transition from the scenarios where descending algorithms generically fail to the scenarios where they succeed in solving phase retrieval. We also develop and implement a practical algorithmic variant that in a hybrid alternating fashion combines a barrier and a plain gradient descent. Even though the theoretical results are obtained for infinite dimensional scenarios (and consequently non-jittery parametric manifolds), we observe a strong agrement between theoretical and simulated phase transitions predictions for fairly small dimensions on the order of a few hundreds.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has sent an internal memo about potential problems with a major company's malaria tests after scientists reported issues with test sensitivity and warned it could delay patients' access to critical treatment. Abbott's Bioline rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria are used by health workers around the world, particularly in remote areas where lab techniques such as microscopy and DNA detection aren't available. Investigations at several institutions in Southeast Asia suggest at least some of these RDTs fail to detect infections or show faint test lines for some positive cases. Daniel Ngamije Madandi, director of WHO's Global Malaria Programme (GMP), issued the memo to WHO's six regional offices on 30 April. It lists 11 "affected" lots from two Abbott RDTs--Pf/Pv and Pf/Pan--that were associated with "faint lines and false negative results" in reports from "multiple research groups." The memo follows a public notice by WHO in March that warned of reports of faint lines in malaria RDTs without mentioning particular brands or products.

Bimanual manipulation is essential in robotics, yet developing foundation models is extremely challenging due to the inherent complexity of coordinating two robot arms (leading to multi-modal action distributions) and the scarcity of training data. In this paper, we present the Robotics Diffusion Transformer (RDT), a pioneering diffusion foundation model for bimanual manipulation. RDT builds on diffusion models to effectively represent multi-modality, with innovative designs of a scalable Transformer to deal with the heterogeneity of multi-modal inputs and to capture the nonlinearity and high frequency of robotic data. To address data scarcity, we further introduce a Physically Interpretable Unified Action Space, which can unify the action representations of various robots while preserving the physical meanings of original actions, facilitating learning transferrable physical knowledge. With these designs, we managed to pre-train RDT on the largest collection of multi-robot datasets to date and scaled it up to 1.2B parameters, which is the largest diffusion-based foundation model for robotic manipulation. We finally fine-tuned RDT on a self-created multi-task bimanual dataset with over 6K+ episodes to refine its manipulation capabilities. Experiments on real robots demonstrate that RDT significantly outperforms existing methods. It exhibits zeroshot generalization to unseen objects and scenes, understands and follows language instructions, learns new skills with just 1 5 demonstrations, and effectively handles complex, dexterous tasks. We refer to the project page for the code and videos. Bimanual manipulation is essential for robots to accomplish real-world tasks (Edsinger & Kemp, 2007). For practical applications, a useful manipulation policy should be able to generalize to unseen scenarios, such as unseen objects and scenes. Following the success in natural language processing (Achiam et al., 2023; Touvron et al., 2023) and computer vision (Radford et al., 2021; Kirillov et al., 2023), one promising direction to enable generalizable behaviors is to develop a foundation model through imitation learning on large-scale datasets. However, it is highly non-trivial to develop a bimanual manipulation foundation model. One main reason is that the accessible data for a specific dual-arm robot is significantly scarce (Sharma et al., 2018; Collaboration et al., 2023) due to high hardware costs, undermining the data-intensive requirements of training foundational models. Inspired by recent attempts in unimanual manipulation (Brohan et al., 2023; Kim et al., 2024), we seek to first pre-train on extensive multi-robot datasets and then fine-tune on the small dataset collected on the target dual-arm robot. This can help us to scale the data size up to three orders of magnitude, having the potential to learn transferrable physics knowledge from datasets of other robots. Nevertheless, there are two key technical challenges.

Learning policies from offline datasets through offline reinforcement learning (RL) holds promise for scaling data-driven decision-making and avoiding unsafe and costly online interactions. However, real-world data collected from sensors or humans often contains noise and errors, posing a significant challenge for existing offline RL methods. Our study indicates that traditional offline RL methods based on temporal difference learning tend to underperform Decision Transformer (DT) under data corruption, especially when the amount of data is limited. This suggests the potential of sequential modeling for tackling data corruption in offline RL. To further unleash the potential of sequence modeling methods, we propose Robust Decision Transformer (RDT) by incorporating several robust techniques. Specifically, we introduce Gaussian weighted learning and iterative data correction to reduce the effect of corrupted data. Additionally, we leverage embedding dropout to enhance the model's resistance to erroneous inputs. Extensive experiments on MoJoCo, KitChen, and Adroit tasks demonstrate RDT's superior performance under diverse data corruption compared to previous methods. Moreover, RDT exhibits remarkable robustness in a challenging setting that combines training-time data corruption with testing-time observation perturbations. These results highlight the potential of robust sequence modeling for learning from noisy or corrupted offline datasets, thereby promoting the reliable application of offline RL in real-world tasks.

Many aspects of human learning have been proposed as a process of constructing mental programs: from acquiring symbolic number representations to intuitive theories about the world. In parallel, there is a long-tradition of using information processing to model human cognition through Rate Distortion Theory (RDT). Yet, it is still poorly understood how to apply RDT when mental representations take the form of programs. In this work, we adapt RDT by proposing a three way trade-off among rate (description length), distortion (error), and computational costs (search budget). We use simulations on a melody task to study the implications of this trade-off, and show that constructing a shared program library across tasks provides global benefits. However, this comes at the cost of sensitivity to curricula, which is also characteristic of human learners. Finally, we use methods from partial information decomposition to generate training curricula that induce more effective libraries and better generalization.

In \cite{Hop82}, Hopfield introduced a \emph{Hebbian} learning rule based neural network model and suggested how it can efficiently operate as an associative memory. Studying random binary patterns, he also uncovered that, if a small fraction of errors is tolerated in the stored patterns retrieval, the capacity of the network (maximal number of memorized patterns, $m$) scales linearly with each pattern's size, $n$. Moreover, he famously predicted $\alpha_c=\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}\frac{m}{n}\approx 0.14$. We study this very same scenario with two famous pattern's basins of attraction: \textbf{\emph{(i)}} The AGS one from \cite{AmiGutSom85}; and \textbf{\emph{(ii)}} The NLT one from \cite{Newman88,Louk94,Louk94a,Louk97,Tal98}. Relying on the \emph{fully lifted random duality theory} (fl RDT) from \cite{Stojnicflrdt23}, we obtain the following explicit capacity characterizations on the first level of lifting: \begin{equation} \alpha_c^{(AGS,1)} = \left ( \max_{\delta\in \left ( 0,\frac{1}{2}\right ) }\frac{1-2\delta}{\sqrt{2} \mbox{erfinv} \left ( 1-2\delta\right )} - \frac{2}{\sqrt{2\pi}} e^{-\left ( \mbox{erfinv}\left ( 1-2\delta \right )\right )^2}\right )^2 \approx \mathbf{0.137906} \end{equation} \begin{equation} \alpha_c^{(NLT,1)} = \frac{\mbox{erf}(x)^2}{2x^2}-1+\mbox{erf}(x)^2 \approx \mathbf{0.129490}, \quad 1-\mbox{erf}(x)^2- \frac{2\mbox{erf}(x)e^{-x^2}}{\sqrt{\pi}x}+\frac{2e^{-2x^2}}{\pi}=0. \end{equation} A substantial numerical work gives on the second level of lifting $\alpha_c^{(AGS,2)} \approx \mathbf{0.138186}$ and $\alpha_c^{(NLT,2)} \approx \mathbf{0.12979}$, effectively uncovering a remarkably fast lifting convergence. Moreover, the obtained AGS characterizations exactly match the replica symmetry based ones of \cite{AmiGutSom85} and the corresponding symmetry breaking ones of \cite{SteKuh94}.

We consider the capacity of \emph{treelike committee machines} (TCM) neural networks. Relying on Random Duality Theory (RDT), \cite{Stojnictcmspnncaprdt23} recently introduced a generic framework for their capacity analysis. An upgrade based on the so-called \emph{partially lifted} RDT (pl RDT) was then presented in \cite{Stojnictcmspnncapliftedrdt23}. Both lines of work focused on the networks with the most typical, \emph{sign}, activations. Here, on the other hand, we focus on networks with other, more general, types of activations and show that the frameworks of \cite{Stojnictcmspnncaprdt23,Stojnictcmspnncapliftedrdt23} are sufficiently powerful to enable handling of such scenarios as well. In addition to the standard \emph{linear} activations, we uncover that particularly convenient results can be obtained for two very commonly used activations, namely, the \emph{quadratic} and \emph{rectified linear unit (ReLU)} ones. In more concrete terms, for each of these activations, we obtain both the RDT and pl RDT based memory capacities upper bound characterization for \emph{any} given (even) number of the hidden layer neurons, $d$. In the process, we also uncover the following two, rather remarkable, facts: 1) contrary to the common wisdom, both sets of results show that the bounding capacity decreases for large $d$ (the width of the hidden layer) while converging to a constant value; and 2) the maximum bounding capacity is achieved for the networks with precisely \textbf{\emph{two}} hidden layer neurons! Moreover, the large $d$ converging values are observed to be in excellent agrement with the statistical physics replica theory based predictions.

Recent progress in studying \emph{treelike committee machines} (TCM) neural networks (NN) in \cite{Stojnictcmspnncaprdt23,Stojnictcmspnncapliftedrdt23,Stojnictcmspnncapdiffactrdt23} showed that the Random Duality Theory (RDT) and its a \emph{partially lifted}(pl RDT) variant are powerful tools that can be used for very precise networks capacity analysis. Here, we consider \emph{wide} hidden layer networks and uncover that certain aspects of numerical difficulties faced in \cite{Stojnictcmspnncapdiffactrdt23} miraculously disappear. In particular, we employ recently developed \emph{fully lifted} (fl) RDT to characterize the \emph{wide} ($d\rightarrow \infty$) TCM nets capacity. We obtain explicit, closed form, capacity characterizations for a very generic class of the hidden layer activations. While the utilized approach significantly lowers the amount of the needed numerical evaluations, the ultimate fl RDT usefulness and success still require a solid portion of the residual numerical work. To get the concrete capacity values, we take four very famous activations examples: \emph{\textbf{ReLU}}, \textbf{\emph{quadratic}}, \textbf{\emph{erf}}, and \textbf{\emph{tanh}}. After successfully conducting all the residual numerical work for all of them, we uncover that the whole lifting mechanism exhibits a remarkably rapid convergence with the relative improvements no better than $\sim 0.1\%$ happening already on the 3-rd level of lifting. As a convenient bonus, we also uncover that the capacity characterizations obtained on the first and second level of lifting precisely match those obtained through the statistical physics replica theory methods in \cite{ZavPeh21} for the generic and in \cite{BalMalZech19} for the ReLU activations.