In single-cell perturbation prediction, a central task is to forecast the effects of perturbing a gene unseen in the training data. The efficacy of such predictions depends on two factors: (1) the similarity of the target gene to those covered in the training data, which informs model (epistemic) uncertainty, and (2) the quality of the corresponding training data, which reflects data (aleatoric) uncertainty. Both factors are critical for determining the reliability of a prediction, particularly as gene perturbation is an inherently stochastic biochemical process. In this paper, we propose PRESCRIBE (PREdicting Single-Cell Response wIth Bayesian Estimation), a multivariate deep evidential regression framework designed to measure both sources of uncertainty jointly. Our analysis demonstrates that PRESCRIBE effectively estimates a confidence score for each prediction, which strongly correlates with its empirical accuracy. This capability enables the filtering of untrustworthy results, and in our experiments, it achieves steady accuracy improvements of over 3% compared to comparable baselines.

Virtual screening (VS) is a critical component of modern drug discovery, yet most existing methods--whether physics-based or deep learning-based--are developed around holo protein structures with known ligand-bound pockets. Consequently, their performance degrades significantly on apo or predicted structures such as those from AlphaFold2, which are more representative of real-world early-stage drug discovery, where pocket information is often missing. In this paper, we introduce an alignment-and-aggregation framework to enable accurate virtual screening under structural uncertainty. Our method comprises two core components: (1) a tri-modal contrastive learning module that aligns representations of the ligand, the holo pocket, and cavities detected from structures, thereby enhancing robustness to pocket localization error; and (2) a cross-attention based adapter for dynamically aggregating candidate binding sites, enabling the model to learn from activity data even without precise pocket annotations. We evaluated our method on a newly curated benchmark of apo structures, where it significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in blind apo setting, improving the early enrichment factor (EF1%) from 11.75 to 37.19. Notably, it also maintains strong performance on holo structures. These results demonstrate the promise of our approach in advancing firstin-class drug discovery, particularly in scenarios lacking experimentally resolved protein-ligand complexes. Our implementation is publicly available at https: //github.com/Wiley-Z/AANet.

Real-time decoding of target variables from multiple simultaneously recorded neural time-series modalities, such as discrete spiking activity and continuous field potentials, is important across various neuroscience applications. However, a major challenge for doing so is that different neural modalities can have different timescales (i.e., sampling rates) and different probabilistic distributions, or can even be missing at some time-steps. Existing nonlinear models of multimodal neural activity do not address different timescales or missing samples across modalities. Further, some of these models do not allow for real-time decoding. Here, we develop a learning framework that can enable real-time recursive decoding while nonlinearly aggregating information across multiple modalities with different timescales and distributions and with missing samples. This framework consists of 1) a multiscale encoder that nonlinearly aggregates information after learning within-modality dynamics to handle different timescales and missing samples in real time, 2) a multiscale dynamical backbone that extracts multimodal temporal dynamics and enables real-time recursive decoding, and 3) modality-specific decoders to account for different probabilistic distributions across modalities. In both simulations and three distinct multiscale brain datasets, we show that our model can aggregate information across modalities with different timescales and distributions and missing samples to improve real-time target decoding. Further, our method outperforms various linear and nonlinear multimodal benchmarks in doing so.

This is a month to look out for some powerful new books, with authors taking on challenges of all sorts and imagining whole new worlds. There are fresh ways to think about a cancer diagnosis, a book tackling the real inner world of hormones, in which we are all hormonal all the time, plus a major re-envisioning of the natural world where we abandon the shallows of competition for the depth and intricacies of connection and togetherness. It's quite hard going to get an up-to-date grip on human evolution, even for the best-briefed adult, so a book with sophisticated text and excellent illustrations and diagrams can only be a good thing. Especially if it is curated and edited by Alice Roberts, biological anthropologist, palaeopathologist, broadcaster - and professor of public engagement in science at the University of Birmingham, UK. She worked with a generous-sized international team of experts in many fields of human evolution, including archaeology, palaeontology, anthropology and cognitive science.

A majority stake of the indie game publisher Playstack is being sold to an investment company called Integrated Media Company (IMG). As first reported by Game Developer, the owner of the publisher behind hits like Balatro and is selling an 84.5 percent stake to a subsidiary of IMG called VantageCo Limited for £112.4 million, or around $151 million. Playstack also released a brief and vague statement from its founder and CEO, Harvey Elliott, that said this step represented a change in ownership, rather than a change in who we are. IMG's portfolio didn't previously include video game publishers but the company also owns the Fandom umbrella of brands, which includes Fandom, GameSpot, metacritic and more. It's hard to say what this acquisition means for the deck-building roguelite that won the hearts of the Engadget squad after its release in 2024.

We consider the problem of conditional independence (CI) testing and adopt a kernel-based approach. Kernel-based CI tests embed variables in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, regress their embeddings on the conditioning variables, and test the resulting residuals for marginal independence. This approach yields tests that are sensitive to a broad range of conditional dependencies. Existing methods, however, rely heavily on kernel ridge regression, which is computationally expensive when properly tuned and yields poorly calibrated tests when left untuned, which limits their practical usefulness. We propose the Generalised Kernel Covariance Measure (GKCM), a regression-model-agnostic kernel-based CI test that accommodates a broad class of regression estimators. Building on the Generalised Hilbertian Covariance Measure framework (Lundborg et al., 2022), we characterise conditions under which GKCM satisfies uniform asymptotic level guarantees. In simulations, GKCM paired with tree-based regression models frequently outperforms state-of-the-art CI tests across a diverse range of data-generating processes, achieving better type I error control and competitive or superior power.

Decision-making problems often feature uncertainty stemming from heterogeneous and context-dependent human preferences. To address this, we propose a sequential learning-and-optimization pipeline to learn preference distributions and leverage them to solve downstream problems, for example risk-averse formulations. We focus on human choice settings that can be formulated as (integer) linear programs. In such settings, existing inverse optimization and choice modelling methods infer preferences from observed choices but typically produce point estimates or fail to capture contextual shifts, making them unsuitable for risk-averse decision-making. Using a bounded-variance score function gradient estimator, we train a predictive model mapping contextual features to a rich class of parameterizable distributions. This approach yields a maximum likelihood estimate. The model generates scenarios for unseen contexts in the subsequent optimization phase. In a synthetic ridesharing environment, our approach reduces average post-decision surprise by up to 114$\times$ compared to a risk-neutral approach with perfect predictions and up to 25$\times$ compared to leading risk-averse baselines.