province
Modular Deep-Learning-Based Early Warning System for Deadly Heatwave Prediction
Xu, Shangqing, Zhao, Zhiyuan, Sharma, Megha, Martín-Olalla, José María, Rodríguez, Alexander, Wellenius, Gregory A., Prakash, B. Aditya
Severe heatwaves in urban areas significantly threaten public health, calling for establishing early warning strategies. Despite predicting occurrence of heatwaves and attributing historical mortality, predicting an incoming deadly heatwave remains a challenge due to the difficulty in defining and estimating heat-related mortality. Furthermore, establishing an early warning system imposes additional requirements, including data availability, spatial and temporal robustness, and decision costs. To address these challenges, we propose DeepTherm, a modular early warning system for deadly heatwave prediction without requiring heat-related mortality history. By highlighting the flexibility of deep learning, DeepTherm employs a dual-prediction pipeline, disentangling baseline mortality in the absence of heatwaves and other irregular events from all-cause mortality. We evaluated DeepTherm on real-world data across Spain. Results demonstrate consistent, robust, and accurate performance across diverse regions, time periods, and population groups while allowing trade-off between missed alarms and false alarms.
- North America > United States > Michigan > Washtenaw County > Ann Arbor (0.14)
- North America > United States > California > Los Angeles County > Los Angeles (0.14)
- Europe > Spain > Andalusia > Seville Province > Seville (0.14)
- (11 more...)
Beyond Chains: Bridging Large Language Models and Knowledge Bases in Complex Question Answering
Zhu, Yihua, Liu, Qianying, Aizawa, Akiko, Shimodaira, Hidetoshi
Knowledge Base Question Answering (KBQA) aims to answer natural language questions using structured knowledge from KBs. While LLM-only approaches offer generalization, they suffer from outdated knowledge, hallucinations, and lack of transparency. Chain-based KG-RAG methods address these issues by incorporating external KBs, but are limited to simple chain-structured questions due to the absence of planning and logical structuring. Inspired by semantic parsing methods, we propose PDRR: a four-stage framework consisting of Predict, Decompose, Retrieve, and Reason. Our method first predicts the question type and decomposes the question into structured triples. Then retrieves relevant information from KBs and guides the LLM as an agent to reason over and complete the decomposed triples. Experimental results demonstrate that PDRR consistently outperforms existing methods across various LLM backbones and achieves superior performance on both chain-structured and non-chain complex questions.
- Europe > France (0.05)
- Europe > Netherlands > Gelderland > Nijmegen (0.05)
- North America > United States > Tennessee (0.05)
- (23 more...)
- Leisure & Entertainment (1.00)
- Media > Music (0.49)
- North America > Canada > Quebec > Montreal (0.14)
- Europe > United Kingdom > England (0.04)
- Europe > Russia (0.04)
- (9 more...)
'Extremely rare' Roman tomb discovered in Germany
'Extremely rare' Roman tomb discovered in Germany No riches or remains are inside--but it probably wasn't tomb raiders. This stone circle was part of a Roman burial mound called a tumulus. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. In 15 BCE, the Romans invaded parts of Austria, Switzerland, and Germany. The region would eventually become the province of Raetia, but it was not valued for its economic resources.
- Europe > Germany (0.83)
- Europe > Switzerland (0.26)
- Europe > Austria (0.25)
- (5 more...)
- Leisure & Entertainment (0.37)
- Government > Military (0.31)
The Road Less Traveled: Enhancing Exploration in LLMs via Sequential Sampling
Reinforcement learning (RL) has been pivotal in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), but it often suffers from limited exploration and entropy collapse, where models exploit a narrow set of solutions, leading to a loss of sampling diversity and subsequently preventing RL from further improving performance. This issue is exacerbated in parallel sampling methods, where multiple outputs are drawn from the same distribution, potentially causing the model to converge to similar solutions. We propose SESA, a novel SEquential SAmpling framework that mitigates this challenge by generating diverse solution sketches sequentially before expanding them into full reasoning paths. This approach ensures broader exploration by conditioning each new output on previous ones, promoting diversity throughout the process and preventing policy collapse. Our experiments on a synthetic task show that sequential sampling consistently outperforms traditional RL methods in terms of path diversity and recovery from collapse. Further evaluations on real-world tasks demonstrate that SESA improves both the exploration of valid strategies and the overall performance of LLMs. On three agent benchmarks, SESA lifts success rates by $+0.25$, $+0.42$, and $+0.07$ absolute over the base model (up to an additional $211\%$ relative improvement over baseline RL), underscoring its exploration advantage. This work introduces a structured approach to exploration, paving the way for more effective and diverse reasoning in RL-trained LLMs. Our code is released at https://github.com/MuLabPKU/sesa.
- Asia > China > Guangdong Province > Shenzhen (0.05)
- Asia > China > Heilongjiang Province > Harbin (0.04)
- Asia > China > Tianjin Province > Tianjin (0.04)
- (13 more...)
Population synthesis with geographic coordinates
Lenti, Jacopo, Costantini, Lorenzo, Fosch, Ariadna, Monticelli, Anna, Scala, David, Pangallo, Marco
It is increasingly important to generate synthetic populations with explicit coordinates rather than coarse geographic areas, yet no established methods exist to achieve this. One reason is that latitude and longitude differ from other continuous variables, exhibiting large empty spaces and highly uneven densities. To address this, we propose a population synthesis algorithm that first maps spatial coordinates into a more regular latent space using Normalizing Flows (NF), and then combines them with other features in a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to generate synthetic populations. This approach also learns the joint distribution between spatial and non-spatial features, exploiting spatial autocorrelations. We demonstrate the method by generating synthetic homes with the same statistical properties of real homes in 121 datasets, corresponding to diverse geographies. We further propose an evaluation framework that measures both spatial accuracy and practical utility, while ensuring privacy preservation. Our results show that the NF+VAE architecture outperforms popular benchmarks, including copula-based methods and uniform allocation within geographic areas. The ability to generate geolocated synthetic populations at fine spatial resolution opens the door to applications requiring detailed geography, from household responses to floods, to epidemic spread, evacuation planning, and transport modeling.
- Europe > Italy > Piedmont > Turin Province > Turin (0.05)
- North America > United States > District of Columbia > Washington (0.04)
- Europe > Spain > Aragón > Zaragoza Province > Zaragoza (0.04)
- Europe > Italy > Lazio > Rome (0.04)
- Information Technology > Security & Privacy (1.00)
- Banking & Finance (1.00)
- Health & Medicine (0.68)