Machine learning methods provide a methodological innovation that can help screen for cardiovascular disease through noninvasive and readily available measurement modalities. Recent investments in using electrocardiogram (ECG) data to screen for structural heart disease (SHD) are one example, where ECGs provide a low-cost, available modality for screening. This has led to the EchoNext dataset, a paired ECG-echocardiogram data repository for testing new methods of SHD detection. However, relatively few studies have investigated how more probabilistic classification through Bayesian inference may improve uncertainty quantification in this setting. Moreover, few studies have considered how triage systems can be developed to alleviate healthcare bottlenecks, such as the review of data from underserved, rural clinics by expert sonographers for SHD assessment. In this study, we leverage existing ECG-echocardiogram data to compare frequentist and Bayesian neural network classifiers. We show that the Bayesian approach is comparable or better than frequentist methods in SHD classification, and that they have a more robust uncertainty quantification attached to them. We provide an example of how this uncertainty-aware classification scheme can be used for screening SHD, providing a proof-of-concept for how machine learning can help with triage in getting individuals expert sonographer input when SHD is highly likely or measurements are highly uncertain.

Accurate boundary detection in high-dimensional data remains a central challenge in unsupervised learning, particularly in the presence of non-linear structures and heterogeneous densities. In this work, we introduce Mean Curvature Boundary Points (MCBP), a novel geometric framework grounded in Geometric Machine Learning that departs from traditional density-based approaches by explicitly modeling the intrinsic curvature of the data manifold. The method relies on a discrete approximation of the shape operator, estimated from local k-nearest neighbor patches, to compute pointwise mean curvature without requiring explicit manifold parametrization. The key insight of MCBP is to use mean curvature as a principled descriptor of boundary structure: high-curvature regions naturally correspond to transitions between clusters, geometric irregularities, and low-density interfaces. This yields a unified geometric interpretation of boundary, outlier, and transition points. We further introduce an adaptive percentile-based thresholding scheme that enables multiscale boundary extraction without relying on ad hoc density parameters. Beyond detection, we propose a curvature-driven data decomposition that separates samples into smooth (low-curvature) and boundary (high-curvature) subsets, effectively acting as a non-linear geometric filtering mechanism. This representation enhances cluster separability and improves the robustness of downstream unsupervised algorithms. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that MCBP consistently improves clustering performance, particularly in complex and high-dimensional scenarios. These results position MCBP as a concrete contribution to Geometric Machine Learning, highlighting the potential of curvature-aware analysis as a unifying paradigm bridging differential geometry and data-driven modeling.

This paper develops a conformal method to compute prediction intervals for nonparametric regression that can automatically adapt to skewed data. Leveraging black-box machine learning algorithms to estimate the conditional distribution of the outcome using histograms, it translates their output into the shortest prediction intervals with approximate conditional coverage. The resulting prediction intervals provably have marginal coverage in finite samples, while asymptotically achieving conditional coverage and optimal length if the black-box model is consistent. Numerical experiments with simulated and real data demonstrate improved performance compared to state-of-the-art alternatives, including conformalized quantile regression and other distributional conformal prediction approaches.

Vision-language models (VLMs) are increasingly used as automated judges for multimodal systems, yet their scores provide no indication of reliability. We study this problem through conformal prediction, a distribution-free framework that converts a judge's point score into a calibrated prediction interval using only score-token log-probabilities, with no retraining. We present the first systematic analysis of conformal prediction for VLM-as-a-Judge across 3 judges and 14 visual task categories. Our results show that evaluation uncertainty is strongly task-dependent: intervals cover ~40% of the score range for aesthetics and natural images but expand to ~70% for chart and mathematical reasoning, yielding a quantitative reliability map for multimodal evaluation. We further identify a failure mode not captured by standard evaluation metrics, ranking-scoring decoupling, where judges achieve high ranking correlation while producing wide, uninformative intervals, correctly ordering responses but failing to assign reliable absolute scores. Finally, we show that interval width is driven primarily by task difficulty and annotation quality, i.e., the same judge and method yield 4.5x narrower intervals on a clean, multi-annotator captioning benchmark. Code: https://github.com/divake/VLM-Judge-Uncertainty

As large language models (LLMs) transition from chat interfaces to integral components of stochastic pipelines and systems approaching general intelligence, the ability to faithfully sample from specified probability distributions has become a functional requirement rather than a theoretical curiosity. We present the first large-scale, statistically powered audit of native probabilistic sampling in frontier LLMs, benchmarking 11 models across 15 distributions. To disentangle failure modes, we employ a dual-protocol design: Batch Generation, where a model produces $N{=}1000$ samples within one response, and Independent Requests, comprising $N{=}1000$ stateless calls. We observe a sharp protocol asymmetry: batch generation achieves only modest statistical validity, with a 7% median pass rate, while independent requests collapse almost entirely, with 10 of 11 models passing none of the distributions. Beyond this asymmetry, we reveal that sampling fidelity degrades monotonically with distributional complexity and aggravates as the sampling horizon $N$ increases. Finally, we demonstrate how the propagation of these failures into downstream real-world application tasks introduces systematic biases: models fail to enforce uniform answer-position constraints in Multiple Choice Question generation and systematically violate demographic targets in attribute-constrained text-to-image prompt synthesis. These findings indicate that current LLMs lack a functional internal sampler, necessitating external tools for applications requiring statistical guarantees.

What are the limits of controlling language models via synthetic training data? We develop a reinforcement learning (RL) primitive, the Dataset Policy Gradient (DPG), which can precisely optimize synthetic data generators to produce a dataset of targeted examples. When used for supervised fine-tuning (SFT) of a target model, these examples cause the target model to do well on a differentiable metric of our choice. Our approach achieves this by taking exact data attribution via higher-order gradients and using those scores as policy gradient rewards. We prove that this procedure closely approximates the true, intractable gradient for the synthetic data generator. To illustrate the potential of DPG, we show that, using only SFT on generated examples, we can cause the target model's LM head weights to (1) embed a QR code, (2) embed the pattern $\texttt{67}$, and (3) have lower $\ell^2$ norm. We additionally show that we can cause the generator to (4) rephrase inputs in a new language and (5) produce a specific UUID, even though neither of these objectives is conveyed in the generator's input prompts. These findings suggest that DPG is a powerful and flexible technique for shaping model properties using only synthetic training examples.

We introduce Lumbermark, a robust divisive clustering algorithm capable of detecting clusters of varying sizes, densities, and shapes. Lumbermark iteratively chops off large limbs connected by protruding segments of a dataset's mutual reachability minimum spanning tree. The use of mutual reachability distances smoothens the data distribution and decreases the influence of low-density objects, such as noise points between clusters or outliers at their peripheries. The algorithm can be viewed as an alternative to HDBSCAN that produces partitions with user-specified sizes. A fast, easy-to-use implementation of the new method is available in the open-source 'lumbermark' package for Python and R. We show that Lumbermark performs well on benchmark data and hope it will prove useful to data scientists and practitioners across different fields.

Modern LLMs scale at test-time, e.g. via repeated sampling, where inference cost grows with model size and the number of samples. This creates a trade-off that pretraining scaling laws, such as Chinchilla, do not address. We present Train-to-Test ($T^2$) scaling laws that jointly optimize model size, training tokens, and number of inference samples under fixed end-to-end budgets. $T^2$ modernizes pretraining scaling laws with pass@$k$ modeling used for test-time scaling, then jointly optimizes pretraining and test-time decisions. Forecasts from $T^2$ are robust over distinct modeling approaches: measuring joint scaling effect on the task loss and modeling impact on task accuracy. Across eight downstream tasks, we find that when accounting for inference cost, optimal pretraining decisions shift radically into the overtraining regime, well-outside of the range of standard pretraining scaling suites. We validate our results by pretraining heavily overtrained models in the optimal region that $T^2$ scaling forecasts, confirming their substantially stronger performance compared to pretraining scaling alone. Finally, as frontier LLMs are post-trained, we show that our findings survive the post-training stage, making $T^2$ scaling meaningful in modern deployments.

We study finite-sample statistical performance guarantees for distributionally robust optimization (DRO) with optimal transport (OT) and OT-regularized divergence model neighborhoods. Specifically, we derive concentration inequalities for supervised learning via DRO-based adversarial training, as commonly employed to enhance the adversarial robustness of machine learning models. Our results apply to a wide range of OT cost functions, beyond the $p$-Wasserstein case studied by previous authors. In particular, our results are the first to: 1) cover soft-constraint norm-ball OT cost functions; soft-constraint costs have been shown empirically to enhance robustness when used in adversarial training, 2) apply to the combination of adversarial sample generation and adversarial reweighting that is induced by using OT-regularized $f$-divergence model neighborhoods; the added reweighting mechanism has also been shown empirically to further improve performance. In addition, even in the $p$-Wasserstein case, our bounds exhibit better behavior as a function of the DRO neighborhood size than previous results when applied to the adversarial setting.

Large language models are increasingly used as personal assistants, yet most lack a persistent user model, forcing users to repeatedly restate preferences across sessions. We propose Vector-Adapted Retrieval Scoring (VARS), a pipeline-agnostic, frozen-backbone framework that represents each user with long-term and short-term vectors in a shared preference space and uses these vectors to bias retrieval scoring over structured preference memory. The vectors are updated online from weak scalar rewards from users' feedback, enabling personalization without per-user fine-tuning. We evaluate on \textsc{MultiSessionCollab}, an online multi-session collaboration benchmark with rich user preference profiles, across math and code tasks. Under frozen backbones, the main benefit of user-aware retrieval is improved interaction efficiency rather than large gains in raw task accuracy: our full VARS agent achieves the strongest overall performance, matches a strong Reflection baseline in task success, and reduces timeout rate and user effort. The learned long-term vectors also align with cross-user preference overlap, while short-term vectors capture session-specific adaptation, supporting the interpretability of the dual-vector design. Code, model, and data are available at https://github.com/YurenHao0426/VARS.