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 poisson distribution





A Hitchhiker's Guide to Poisson Gradient Estimation

Ibrahim, Michael, Zhao, Hanqi, Sennesh, Eli, Li, Zhi, Wu, Anqi, Yates, Jacob L., Li, Chengrui, Vafaii, Hadi

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Poisson-distributed latent variable models are widely used in computational neuroscience, but differentiating through discrete stochastic samples remains challenging. Two approaches address this: Exponential Arrival Time (EAT) simulation and Gumbel-SoftMax (GSM) relaxation. We provide the first systematic comparison of these methods, along with practical guidance for practitioners. Our main technical contribution is a modification to the EAT method that theoretically guarantees an unbiased first moment (exactly matching the firing rate), and reduces second-moment bias. We evaluate these methods on their distributional fidelity, gradient quality, and performance on two tasks: (1) variational autoencoders with Poisson latents, and (2) partially observable generalized linear models, where latent neural connectivity must be inferred from observed spike trains. Across all metrics, our modified EAT method exhibits better overall performance (often comparable to exact gradients), and substantially higher robustness to hyperparameter choices. Together, our results clarify the trade-offs between these methods and offer concrete recommendations for practitioners working with Poisson latent variable models.


BayesSum: Bayesian Quadrature in Discrete Spaces

Kang, Sophia Seulkee, Briol, François-Xavier, Karvonen, Toni, Chen, Zonghao

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper addresses the challenging computational problem of estimating intractable expectations over discrete domains. Existing approaches, including Monte Carlo and Russian Roulette estimators, are consistent but often require a large number of samples to achieve accurate results. We propose a novel estimator, \emph{BayesSum}, which is an extension of Bayesian quadrature to discrete domains. It is more sample efficient than alternatives due to its ability to make use of prior information about the integrand through a Gaussian process. We show this through theory, deriving a convergence rate significantly faster than Monte Carlo in a broad range of settings. We also demonstrate empirically that our proposed method does indeed require fewer samples on several synthetic settings as well as for parameter estimation for Conway-Maxwell-Poisson and Potts models.





43feaeeecd7b2fe2ae2e26d917b6477d-Reviews.html

Neural Information Processing Systems

First provide a summary of the paper, and then address the following criteria: Quality, clarity, originality and significance. The paper describes a number of new models for representing a joint distribution over integer-count variables. The authors argue that the default model that arises from Yang et al. is not satisfactory because it can only model negative correlations in order for the distribution to be normalized. They then consider a series of fixes for this including a new truncation method, using a quadratic base measure statistic (which they prove is necessary with everything else fixed), and finally a sub-linear sufficient statistic. This is a well written paper describing some nice solutions for representing count data.


On Poisson Graphical Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Undirected graphical models, such as Gaussian graphical models, Ising, and multinomial/categorical graphical models, are widely used in a variety of applications for modeling distributions over a large number of variables. These standard instances, however, are ill-suited to modeling count data, which are increasingly ubiquitous in big-data settings such as genomic sequencing data, user-ratings data, spatial incidence data, climate studies, and site visits. Existing classes of Poisson graphical models, which arise as the joint distributions that correspond to Poisson distributed node-conditional distributions, have a major drawback: they can only model negative conditional dependencies for reasons of normalizability given its infinite domain. In this paper, our objective is to modify the Poisson graphical model distribution so that it can capture a rich dependence structure between count-valued variables. We begin by discussing two strategies for truncating the Poisson distribution and show that only one of these leads to a valid joint distribution; even this model, however, has limitations on the types of variables and dependencies that may be modeled.