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OECD warns tariffs, AI will test resilience of the global economy

Al Jazeera

Global growth is holding up better than expected as an artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom helps offset some of the shock from United States tariff hikes, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The Paris-based organisation, however, warned on Tuesday that global growth was vulnerable to any new outbreak of trade tensions, while investor optimism about AI could trigger a stock market correction if expectations are not met. It predicted a rebound to 3.1 percent in 2027. OECD head Mathias Cormann said the trade shocks triggered by US President Donald Trump's tariff hikes had so far proved relatively mild, but added their costs were likely to rise. "The full effects of those higher tariffs since the start of the year will become clearer as firms run down the inventories that they built up," he told a press conference.


Lost in Translation: Policymakers are not really listening to Citizen Concerns about AI

Aaronson, Susan Ariel, Moreno, Michael

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The worlds people have strong opinions about artificial intelligence (AI), and they want policymakers to listen. Governments are inviting public comment on AI, but as they translate input into policy, much of what citizens say is lost. Policymakers are missing a critical opportunity to build trust in AI and its governance. This paper compares three countries, Australia, Colombia, and the United States, that invited citizens to comment on AI risks and policies. Using a landscape analysis, the authors examined how each government solicited feedback and whether that input shaped governance. Yet in none of the three cases did citizens and policymakers establish a meaningful dialogue. Governments did little to attract diverse voices or publicize calls for comment, leaving most citizens unaware or unprepared to respond. In each nation, fewer than one percent of the population participated. Moreover, officials showed limited responsiveness to the feedback they received, failing to create an effective feedback loop. The study finds a persistent gap between the promise and practice of participatory AI governance. The authors conclude that current approaches are unlikely to build trust or legitimacy in AI because policymakers are not adequately listening or responding to public concerns. They offer eight recommendations: promote AI literacy; monitor public feedback; broaden outreach; hold regular online forums; use innovative engagement methods; include underrepresented groups; respond publicly to input; and make participation easier.


Why we should be skeptical of the hasty global push to test 15-year-olds' AI literacy in 2029

AIHub

Why we should be skeptical of the hasty global push to test 15-year-olds' AI literacy in 2029 If 2022 was the year OpenAI knocked our world off course with the launch of ChatGPT, 2025 will be remembered for the frenzied embrace of AI as the solution to everything. And, yes, this includes teaching and schoolwork. In today's breakneck AI innovation race, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), along with the European Commission, have called for the development of unified AI literacy strategies in kindergarten to Grade 12 education. They have done this through an AI Literacy Framework developed with Code.org, and a range of experts in computational thinking, neuroscience, AI, educational technology and innovation -- and with "valuable insights" from the "TeachAI community ." The "TeachAI community" refers to a larger umbrella project providing web resources targeting teachers, education leaders and "solution providers" .


Societal Capacity Assessment Framework: Measuring Resilience to Inform Advanced AI Risk Management

Gandhi, Milan, Cihon, Peter, Larter, Owen, Anselmetti, Rebecca

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Risk assessments for advanced AI systems require evaluating both the models themselves and their deployment contexts. We introduce the Societal Capacity Assessment Framework (SCAF), an indicators-based approach to measuring a society's vulnerability, coping capacity, and adaptive capacity in response to AI-related risks. SCAF adapts established resilience analysis methodologies to AI, enabling organisations to ground risk management in insights about country-level deployment conditions. It can also support stakeholders in identifying opportunities to strengthen societal preparedness for emerging AI capabilities. By bridging disparate literatures and the "context gap" in AI evaluation, SCAF promotes more holistic risk assessment and governance as advanced AI systems proliferate globally.


Real-time Monitoring of Economic Shocks using Company Websites

Koenig, Michael, Rauch, Jakob, Woerter, Martin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding the effects of economic shocks on firms is critical for analyzing economic growth and resilience. We introduce a Web-Based Affectedness Indicator (W AI), a general-purpose tool for real-time monitoring of economic disruptions across diverse contexts. By leveraging Large Language Model (LLM) assisted classification and information extraction on texts from over five million company websites, W AI quantifies the degree and nature of firms' responses to external shocks. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a specific application, we show that W AI is highly correlated with pandemic containment measures and reliably predicts firm performance. Unlike traditional data sources, W AI provides timely firm-level information across industries and geographies worldwide that would otherwise be unavailable due to institutional and data availability constraints. This methodology offers significant potential for monitoring and mitigating the impact of technological, political, financial, health or environmental crises, and represents a transformative tool for adaptive policy-making and economic resilience. Economic shocks, whether driven by public health crises, technological disruptions, geopolitical conflicts, or climate events, pose significant challenges to businesses and policymakers alike. Timely and accurate monitoring of these shocks is critical for crafting effective responses and enhancing economic resilience. However, traditional methods for measuring the impacts of such disruptions - such as surveys and administrative data - are often limited by costs, time lags, and coverage. In this study, we introduce the Web-Based Affectedness Indicator (W AI), a scalable and cost-effective tool for real-time monitoring of economic disruptions at the firm level. By analyzing textual data from millions of company websites, W AI provides granular insights into how firms experience and respond to external shocks. This 1 methodology overcomes traditional limitations by leveraging ubiquitous online content and state-of-the-art natural language processing (NLP) models to generate a dynamic and comprehensive view of economic affectedness. W AI can provide information on a wide range of challenges, including supply chain disruptions, financial crises, and climate-related shocks.


AI revolution puts skilled jobs at highest risk, OECD says

The Guardian

Major economies are on the "cusp of an AI revolution" that could trigger job losses in skilled professions such as law, medicine and finance, according to an influential international organisation. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said the occupations at highest risk from AI-driven automation were highly skilled jobs and represented about 27% of employment across its 38 member countries, which include the UK, Japan, Germany, the US, Australia and Canada. The body said it was "clear that the potential for [AI-driven jobs] substitution remains significant, raising fears of decreasing wages and job losses". However, it added that for the time being AI was changing jobs rather than replacing them. "Occupations in finance, medicine and legal activities which often require many years of education, and whose core functions rely on accumulated experience to reach decisions, may suddenly find themselves at risk of automation from AI," said the OECD.


Charts: Global AI Stats and Trends

#artificialintelligence

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development is an intergovernmental agency with 38 member countries, founded in 1961 in France to stimulate economic progress and world trade. The OECD's "AI Policy Observatory" tracks artificial intelligence research and advancement. This includes the number of annual AI-related research papers by country, an indicator of its progress. According to the OECD, since 2010 China has led the world in AI research, reaching 141,006 cumulative (since 1980) papers in 2021. Hence China is becoming the global leader in artificial intelligence.


The Principles of AI Governance - with Karine Perset of the OECD

#artificialintelligence

We interviewed Karine Perset, from the OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation in France about the informational pillars that make up strong AI governance for governments worldwide. She offered us numerous insights into how the OECD developed the AI Principles and works with governing bodies to design policies that will keep AI safe and trustworthy into the future. Additionally, we discuss which types of policies are necessary for which types of AI software as well as the scale at which these policies should govern. This could range from city to city at the local level as well as an international level as governments around the world continue to work on global standards for AI governance. In our interview with Perset, we focused on the differences between local, international, and global policies for AI systems and products.


Github Analysis Shows India As An Emerging AI Superpower

#artificialintelligence

A new analysis of code-sharing platform GitHub has shown that India has eclipsed even the US when it comes to writing AI code. The new analysis conducted by the OECD of data from Microsoft-owned code-sharing platform GitHub reveals another contender in the AI race: India, which has succeeded in equipping its vast technology talent base with AI skills. The data is gathered from public AI-related code repositories or repos that are hosted on the platform. Examining the location from where contributions, or'commits', to these AI repos are made reveals that in 2019, India overtook the US as the principal source of AI-related code. In 2020, it accounted for 30% of all commits, double the US figure.


Israel joins international artificial intelligence group

#artificialintelligence

Israel joined the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence today, Nov. 11, becoming the 20th member of the organization created two years ago under French and Canadian leadership. Four other countries were also accepted into the organization and four countries saw their candidacy rejected, at least for the moment, at the GPAI's annual event. The GPAI headquarters are located within the OECD in Paris, with another hub in Canada. He explained to Al-Monitor that the organization is made up of countries with advanced artificial intelligence technologies that believe in the values of equality and democracy promoted by the OECD. "Artificial intelligence has been a much-debated topic worldwide, also generating fears. These technologies bring about very positive impacts and possibilities, but are also quite complex and could be sensitive to society. And so the states wanted to have a multi-stakeholder initiative that could advise them and make recommendations," he said.