The focus of nowcasting development is transitioning from physically motivated advection methods to purely data-driven Machine Learning (ML) approaches. Nevertheless, recent work indicates that incorporating advection into the ML value chain has improved skill for radar-based precipitation nowcasts. However, the generality of this approach and the underlying causes remain unexplored. This study investigates the generality by probing the approach on satellite-based thunderstorm nowcasts for the first time. Resorting to a scale argument, we then put forth an explanation when and why skill improvements can be expected. In essence, advection guarantees that thunderstorm patterns relevant for nowcasting are contained in the receptive field at long forecast times. To test our hypotheses, we train ResU-Nets solving segmentation tasks with lightning observations as ground truth. The input of the Baseline Neural Network (BNN) are short time series of multispectral satellite imagery and lightning observations, whereas the Advection-Informed Neural Network (AINN) additionally receives the Lagrangian persistence nowcast of all input channels at the desired forecast time. Overall, we find only a minor skill improvement of the AINN over the BNN when considering fully averaged scores. However, assessing skill conditioned on forecast time and advection speed, we demonstrate that our scale argument correctly predicts the onset of skill improvement of the AINN over the BNN after 2h forecast time. We confirm that, generally, advection becomes gradually more important with longer forecast times and higher advection speeds. Our work accentuates the importance of considering and incorporating the underlying physical scales when designing ML-based forecasting models.

Recent results in the literature indicate that artificial neural networks (ANNs) can outperform the dynamic factor model (DFM) in terms of the accuracy of GDP nowcasts. Compared to the DFM, the performance advantage of these highly flexible, nonlinear estimators is particularly evident in periods of recessions and structural breaks. From the perspective of policy-makers, however, nowcasts are the most useful when they are conveyed with uncertainty attached to them. While the DFM and other classical time series approaches analytically derive the predictive (conditional) distribution for GDP growth, ANNs can only produce point nowcasts based on their default training procedure (backpropagation). To fill this gap, first in the literature, we adapt two different deep learning algorithms that enable ANNs to generate density nowcasts for U.S. GDP growth: Bayes by Backprop and Monte Carlo dropout. The accuracy of point nowcasts, defined as the mean of the empirical predictive distribution, is evaluated relative to a naive constant growth model for GDP and a benchmark DFM specification. Using a 1D CNN as the underlying ANN architecture, both algorithms outperform those benchmarks during the evaluation period (2012:Q1 -- 2022:Q4). Furthermore, both algorithms are able to dynamically adjust the location (mean), scale (variance), and shape (skew) of the empirical predictive distribution. The results indicate that both Bayes by Backprop and Monte Carlo dropout can effectively augment the scope and functionality of ANNs, rendering them a fully compatible and competitive alternative for classical time series approaches.

This paper presents a convolutional neural network model for precipitation nowcasting that combines data-driven learning with physics-informed domain knowledge. We propose LUPIN, a Lagrangian Double U-Net for Physics-Informed Nowcasting, that draws from existing extrapolation-based nowcasting methods and implements the Lagrangian coordinate system transformation of the data in a fully differentiable and GPU-accelerated manner to allow for real-time end-to-end training and inference. Based on our evaluation, LUPIN matches and exceeds the performance of the chosen benchmark, opening the door for other Lagrangian machine learning models.

In our study, we apply artificial neural networks (ANNs) to nowcast quarterly GDP growth for the U.S. economy. Using the monthly FRED-MD database, we compare the nowcasting performance of five different ANN architectures: the multilayer perceptron (MLP), the one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D CNN), the Elman recurrent neural network (RNN), the long short-term memory network (LSTM), and the gated recurrent unit (GRU). The empirical analysis presents the results from two distinctively different evaluation periods. The first (2012:Q1 -- 2019:Q4) is characterized by balanced economic growth, while the second (2012:Q1 -- 2022:Q4) also includes periods of the COVID-19 recession. According to our results, longer input sequences result in more accurate nowcasts in periods of balanced economic growth. However, this effect ceases above a relatively low threshold value of around six quarters (eighteen months). During periods of economic turbulence (e.g., during the COVID-19 recession), longer input sequences do not help the models' predictive performance; instead, they seem to weaken their generalization capability. Combined results from the two evaluation periods indicate that architectural features enabling for long-term memory do not result in more accurate nowcasts. On the other hand, the 1D CNN has proved to be a highly suitable model for GDP nowcasting. The network has shown good nowcasting performance among the competitors during the first evaluation period and achieved the overall best accuracy during the second evaluation period. Consequently, first in the literature, we propose the application of the 1D CNN for economic nowcasting.

The paper uses structured machine learning regressions for nowcasting with panel data consisting of series sampled at different frequencies. Motivated by the problem of predicting corporate earnings for a large cross-section of firms with macroeconomic, financial, and news time series sampled at different frequencies, we focus on the sparse-group LASSO regularization which can take advantage of the mixed frequency time series panel data structures. Our empirical results show the superior performance of our machine learning panel data regression models over analysts' predictions, forecast combinations, firm-specific time series regression models, and standard machine learning methods.

An international team of researchers have built a set of machine learning models they say can help predict global food shortages in the near future, helping governments and international agencies understand where they can best help. Scientists from the World Food Programme, University of London Mathematics Department and Central European University Department of Network and Data Science, made use of a "unique global dataset" to build machine learning models that can explain up to 81 percent of the variation in insufficient food consumption. The study claims the machine learning models draw from indirect data sources in areas such as food prices, macro-economic indicators (including GDP), weather, conflict, prevalence of undernourishment, population density, and previous food insecurity trends. The aim is to create near-term forecasts, or "nowcasts." "We show that the proposed models can nowcast the food security situation in near real-time and propose a method to identify which variables are driving the changes observed in predicted trends -- which is key to make predictions serviceable to decision-makers," the research paper published in Nature Food this week said. The outputs of the ML models have been used to create a world map including near-term food insecurity forecasts called HungerMap.

Updating observations of a signal due to the delays in the measurement process is a common problem in signal processing, with prominent examples in a wide range of fields. An important example of this problem is the nowcasting of COVID-19 mortality: given a stream of reported counts of daily deaths, can we correct for the delays in reporting to paint an accurate picture of the present, with uncertainty? Without this correction, raw data will often mislead by suggesting an improving situation. We present a flexible approach using a latent Gaussian process that is capable of describing the changing auto-correlation structure present in the reporting time-delay surface. This approach also yields robust estimates of uncertainty for the estimated nowcasted numbers of deaths. We test assumptions in model specification such as the choice of kernel or hyper priors, and evaluate model performance on a challenging real dataset from Brazil. Our experiments show that Gaussian process nowcasting performs favourably against both comparable methods, and a small sample of expert human predictions. Our approach has substantial practical utility in disease modelling -- by applying our approach to COVID-19 mortality data from Brazil, where reporting delays are large, we can make informative predictions on important epidemiological quantities such as the current effective reproduction number.

This paper develops Bayesian econometric methods for posterior and predictive inference in a non-parametric mixed frequency VAR using additive regression trees. We argue that regression tree models are ideally suited for macroeconomic nowcasting in the face of the extreme observations produced by the pandemic due to their flexibility and ability to model outliers. In a nowcasting application involving four major countries in the European Union, we find substantial improvements in nowcasting performance relative to a linear mixed frequency VAR. A detailed examination of the predictive densities in the first six months of 2020 shows where these improvements are achieved.

NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is planning to use artificial intelligence in weather forecasting, especially for issuing nowcasts, which can help improve 3-6 hours prediction of extreme weather events, its Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said on Sunday. He said the use of artificial intelligence and machine learning is not as prevalent as it is in other fields and it is relatively new in the area of weather forecasting. The IMD has invited research groups who can study how artificial intelligence (AI) be used for improving weather forecasting and the Ministry of Earth Sciences is evaluating their proposals, Mohapatra said. He said the IMD is also planning to do collaborative studies on this with other institutions. The IMD uses different tools like radars, satellite imagery, to issue nowcasts, which gives information on extreme weather events occurring in the next 3-6 hours.

The statistical imprecision of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, along with the fact that the first estimate is available with a delay of nearly a month, pose a significant challenge to policy makers, market participants, and other observers with an interest in monitoring the state of the economy in real time; see, e.g., Ghysels, Horan, and Moench (2018) for a recent discussion of macroeconomic data revision and publication delays. A term originated in meteorology, nowcasting pertains to the prediction of the present and very near future. Nowcasting is intrinsically a mixed frequency data problem as the object of interest is a low-frequency data series (e.g., quarterly GDP), whereas the real-time information (e.g., daily, weekly, or monthly) can be used to update the state, or to put it differently, to nowcast the low-frequency series of interest. Traditional methods used for nowcasting rely on dynamic factor models that treat the underlying low frequency series of interest as a latent process with high frequency data noisy observations. These models are naturally cast in a state-space form and inference can be performed using likelihood-based methods and Kalman filtering techniques; see Bańbura, Giannone, Modugno, and Reichlin (2013) for a recent survey.