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Traditional Home Insurance Is Collapsing. A new, AI-assisted model of insurance is quietly exploding in disaster-prone areas--and may be coming for FEMA too. Is it the answer to climate change, or a trap? In 2019, when the worst flooding in recorded history spread across the entire Mississippi River basin, Colin Wellenkamp's phone rang for weeks. Wellenkamp runs a nonprofit called the Mississippi River Cities & Towns Initiative, which coordinates between mayors' offices in more than 100 river communities from northern Minnesota to southern Louisiana. As he describes it, his headquarters served as "one big virtual situation room" for relief agencies and municipalities up and down the central US.

We develop a statistical learning theory for gradient boosting applied to the estimation of covariate-dependent Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions in the context of Peaks-over-Threshold modeling. After an orthogonal reparametrization of the GP likelihood that diagonalizes its Fisher information matrix, we cast the estimation problem within the Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) framework and derive non-asymptotic error bounds for the boosting estimator. Our analysis accounts for three distinct sources of error in the process: statistical fluctuations, the approximation bias inherent to the asymptotic nature of the GP model-controlled under second-order regular variation-and the approximation error associated with the finite number of boosting iterates, making explicit the resulting bias-variance trade-off. We illustrate the practical benefits of the reparametrization through simulations, showing that it significantly reduces gradient correlation during training and improves convergence stability. The methodology is applied to a medical malpractice insurance dataset from the Texas Department of Insurance, comprising over 18 000 closed claims. The gradient boosting approach yields a good fit for the tail of settlement cost distributions and reveals that the number of days to settlement is the dominant predictor of tail heaviness, consistent with earlier findings in the reserving literature.

Sharing the financial impact of rare adverse events across a group can soften extreme individual burdens, but any participant made worse off by the arrangement has reason to leave. A credible mechanism must therefore provide each agent with a trustworthy cap on their future obligation and should be deployed only if the aggregate harm across participants is bounded. We formalise this as the Certified Allocation Problem: from finite data and without distributional assumptions, find a redistribution rule, produce obligation caps for every participant, and verify that no participant is made materially worse off. We propose Conformal Risk Sharing, which solves this problem by pairing an interpretable sharing policy with split conformal calibration. The sharing intensity is tuned on training data, while held-out calibration data produces distribution-free per-agent guarantees (valid under exchangeability). Experiments on synthetic and real-world data, including precipitation and energy-cooperative data, confirm that the framework can substantially reduce extreme obligations for high-risk agents while controlling harm to others.

Capped-usage SaaS products -- LLM subscriptions such as Claude Code and ChatGPT, cloud platforms such as Vercel and Cloudflare Workers, corporate benefit platforms, identity-verification services with liability transfer -- share a structural signature with insurance products: a fixed premium decoupled from realized consumption, stochastic per-user demand with heavy-tailed severity, a non-fungible cap that resets on a fixed schedule, and a portfolio-level exposure that requires reserve adequacy under tail risk. We argue that this is not an analogy. It is the same operational problem actuarial science has been tooled for decades to address, restated with new dependent variables (tokens, bandwidth bytes, function-invocations, gym check-ins) in place of medical claims. This paper proposes a modeling framework for capped-usage SaaS pricing built from frequency-severity decomposition, premium calculation principles, and Monte Carlo reserve adequacy. We map the framework to publicly observable subscription tiers in two domains (LLM services and cloud platforms), ground it in canonical health-insurance economics (Arrow 1963; Pauly 1968; Manning et al. 1987; Brot-Goldberg et al. 2017), and demonstrate divergence from traditional unit economics through a worked example. The contribution is operational rather than theoretical: not a new theorem, but vocabulary and tools currently absent from cs.LG/stat.ML practice.

Geographic context is often consider relevant to motor insurance risk, yet public actuarial datasets provide limited location identifiers, constraining how this information can be incorporated and evaluated in claim-frequency models. This study examines how geographic information from alternative data sources can be incorporated into actuarial models for Motor Third Party Liability (MTPL) claim prediction under such constraints. Using the BeMTPL97 dataset, we adopt a zone-level modeling framework and evaluate predictive performance on unseen postcodes. Geographic information is introduced through two channels: environmental indicators from OpenStreetMap and CORINE Land Cover, and orthoimagery released by the Belgian National Geographic Institute for academic use. We evaluate the predictive contribution of coordinates, environmental features, and image embeddings across three baseline models: generalized linear models (GLMs), regularized GLMs, and gradient-boosted trees, while raw imagery is modeled using convolutional neural networks. Our results show that augmenting actuarial variables with constructed geographic information improves accuracy. Across experiments, both linear and tree-based models benefit most from combining coordinates with environmental features extracted at 5 km scale, while smaller neighborhoods also improve baseline specifications. Generally, image embeddings do not improve performance when environmental features are available; however, when such features are absent, pretrained vision-transformer embeddings enhance accuracy and stability for regularized GLMs. Our results show that the predictive value of geographic information in zone-level MTPL frequency models depends less on model complexity than on how geography is represented, and illustrate that geographic context can be incorporated despite limited individual-level spatial information.

Deep generative models for tabular data (GANs, diffusion models, and LLM-based generators) exhibit highly non-uniform behavior across datasets; the best-performing synthesizer family depends strongly on distributional stressors such as long-tailed marginals, high-cardinality categorical, Zipfian imbalance, and small-sample regimes. This brittleness makes practical deployment challenging, especially when users must balance competing objectives of fidelity, privacy, and utility. We study {intent-conditioned tabular synthesis selection}: given a dataset and a user intent expressed as a preference over evaluation metrics, the goal is to select a synthesizer that minimizes regret relative to an intent-specific oracle. We propose {stress profiling}, a synthesis-specific meta-feature representation that quantifies dataset difficulty along four interpretable stress dimensions, and integrate it into {SYNTHONY}, a selection framework that matches stress profiles against a calibrated capability registry of synthesizer families. Across a benchmark of 7 datasets, 10 synthesizers, and 3 intents, we demonstrate that stress-based meta-features are highly predictive of synthesizer performance: a $k$NN selector using these features achieves strong Top-1 selection accuracy, substantially outperforming zero-shot LLM selectors and random baselines. We analyze the gap between meta-feature-based and capability-based selection, identifying the hand-crafted capability registry as the primary bottleneck and motivating learned capability representations as a direction for future work.

We propose a federated learning framework for the calibration of parametric insurance indices under heterogeneous renewable energy production losses. Producers locally model their losses using Tweedie generalized linear models and private data, while a common index is learned through federated optimization without sharing raw observations. The approach accommodates heterogeneity in variance and link functions and directly minimizes a global deviance objective in a distributed setting. We implement and compare FedAvg, FedProx and FedOpt, and benchmark them against an existing approximation-based aggregation method. An empirical application to solar power production in Germany shows that federated learning recovers comparable index coefficients under moderate heterogeneity, while providing a more general and scalable framework.

Good Job I Have a Job Offer I Can't Refuse. The Company It Comes From Has a Terrible Reputation for Women. My company unexpectedly outsourced my entire department to a firm that uses AI for our jobs, even though I don't work a job that can really be done by machine learning. I have some savings but can't go without health insurance: my daughter and I both have the same complex chronic condition. I was briefly on public insurance in the past and it was a nightmare of waitlists leading to a cascade of hospital stays.

This paper comprehensively elaborates on the construction methodology, multi-dimensional evaluation system, and underlying design philosophy of CUFEInse v1.0. Adhering to the principles of "quantitative-oriented, expert-driven, and multi-validation," the benchmark establishes an evaluation framework covering 5 core dimensions, 54 sub-indicators, and 14,430 high-quality questions, encompassing insurance theoretical knowledge, industry understanding, safety and compliance, intelligent agent application, and logical rigor. Based on this benchmark, a comprehensive evaluation was conducted on 11 mainstream large language models. The evaluation results reveal that general-purpose models suffer from common bottlenecks such as weak actuarial capabilities and inadequate compliance adaptation. High-quality domain-specific training demonstrates significant advantages in insurance vertical scenarios but exhibits shortcomings in business adaptation and compliance. The evaluation also accurately identifies the common bottlenecks of current large models in professional scenarios such as insurance actuarial, underwriting and claim settlement reasoning, and compliant marketing copywriting. The establishment of CUFEInse not only fills the gap in professional evaluation benchmarks for the insurance field, providing academia and industry with a professional, systematic, and authoritative evaluation tool, but also its construction concept and methodology offer important references for the evaluation paradigm of large models in vertical fields, serving as an authoritative reference for academic model optimization and industrial model selection. Finally, the paper looks forward to the future iteration direction of the evaluation benchmark and the core development direction of "domain adaptation + reasoning enhancement" for insurance large models.