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The Behavioral Credibility Trilemma: When Calibrated Autonomy Becomes Impossible

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We prove that no reinforcement learning policy with confidence-gated autonomy can simultaneously achieve maximum helpfulness, optimal calibration, and full autonomy under rational oversight, whenever some tasks exceed the agent's reliable competence: the Behavioral Credibility Trilemma. The impossibility is geometric -- adding any non-affine autonomy incentive to a strictly proper scoring rule destroys strict properness, so an agent rewarded for both calibrated confidence and autonomous action systematically inflates its reported confidence on tasks below the principal's approval threshold. The Behavioral Perturbation Lemma quantifies the inflation (scaling as $w_A/(2 w_C)$ for the Brier score) and shows detection requires $Ω(1/Δ^2)$ observations. We prove the principal's optimal oversight rule is necessarily non-affine, making the impossibility unconditional and optimizer-independent across log-concave-density policy families. We formalize the Confidence-Gated Decision Problem, map existing methods onto the trilemma, and identify two constructive resolution pathways (commitment, domain separation). A 540-configuration Best-of-N experiment tests five pre-registered hypotheses, all strongly confirmed (effect sizes $d = 1.10$ to $5.32$), and adds a descriptive analysis of the achievable-$(H, C, A)$ surface geometry showing a plateau-truncated frontier consistent with the predicted inflation saturation.


Sharp Impossibility Results for Hypergraph Testing

Neural Information Processing Systems

In a broad Degree-Corrected Mixed-Membership (DCMM) setting, we test whether a non-uniform hypergraph has only one community or has multiple communities. Since both the null and alternative hypotheses have many unknown parameters, the challenge is, given an alternative, how to identify the null that is hardest to separate from the alternative. We approach this by proposing a degree matching strategy where the main idea is leveraging the theory for tensor scaling to create a least favorable pair of hypotheses. We present a result on standard minimax lower bound theory and a result on Region of Impossibility (which is more informative than the minimax lower bound). We show that our lower bounds are tight by introducing a new test that attains the lower bound up to a logarithmic factor. We also discuss the case where the hypergraphs may have mixed-memberships.


Information-Theoretic Limits of Safety Verification for Self-Improving Systems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Can a safety gate permit unbounded beneficial self-modification while maintaining bounded cumulative risk? We formalize this question through dual conditions -- requiring sum delta_n < infinity (bounded risk) and sum TPR_n = infinity (unbounded utility) -- and establish a theory of their (in)compatibility. Classification impossibility (Theorem 1): For power-law risk schedules delta_n = O(n^{-p}) with p > 1, any classifier-based gate under overlapping safe/unsafe distributions satisfies TPR_n <= C_alpha * delta_n^beta via Holder's inequality, forcing sum TPR_n < infinity. This impossibility is exponent-optimal (Theorem 3). A second independent proof via the NP counting method (Theorem 4) yields a 13% tighter bound without Holder's inequality. Universal finite-horizon ceiling (Theorem 5): For any summable risk schedule, the exact maximum achievable classifier utility is U*(N, B) = N * TPR_NP(B/N), growing as exp(O(sqrt(log N))) -- subpolynomial. At N = 10^6 with budget B = 1.0, a classifier extracts at most U* ~ 87 versus a verifier's ~500,000. Verification escape (Theorem 2): A Lipschitz ball verifier achieves delta = 0 with TPR > 0, escaping the impossibility. Formal Lipschitz bounds for pre-LayerNorm transformers under LoRA enable LLM-scale verification. The separation is strict. We validate on GPT-2 (d_LoRA = 147,456): conditional delta = 0 with TPR = 0.352. Comprehensive empirical validation is in the companion paper [D2].


Empirical Validation of the Classification-Verification Dichotomy for AI Safety Gates

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Can classifier-based safety gates maintain reliable oversight as AI systems improve over hundreds of iterations? We provide comprehensive empirical evidence that they cannot. On a self-improving neural controller (d=240), eighteen classifier configurations -- spanning MLPs, SVMs, random forests, k-NN, Bayesian classifiers, and deep networks -- all fail the dual conditions for safe self-improvement. Three safe RL baselines (CPO, Lyapunov, safety shielding) also fail. Results extend to MuJoCo benchmarks (Reacher-v4 d=496, Swimmer-v4 d=1408, HalfCheetah-v4 d=1824). At controlled distribution separations up to delta_s=2.0, all classifiers still fail -- including the NP-optimal test and MLPs with 100% training accuracy -- demonstrating structural impossibility. We then show the impossibility is specific to classification, not to safe self-improvement itself. A Lipschitz ball verifier achieves zero false accepts across dimensions d in {84, 240, 768, 2688, 5760, 9984, 17408} using provable analytical bounds (unconditional delta=0). Ball chaining enables unbounded parameter-space traversal: on MuJoCo Reacher-v4, 10 chains yield +4.31 reward improvement with delta=0; on Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct during LoRA fine-tuning, 42 chain transitions traverse 234x the single-ball radius with zero safety violations across 200 steps. A 50-prompt oracle confirms oracle-agnosticity. Compositional per-group verification enables radii up to 37x larger than full-network balls. At d<=17408, delta=0 is unconditional; at LLM scale, conditional on estimated Lipschitz constants.



The Smoothed Possibility of Social Choice

Neural Information Processing Systems

We develop a framework that leverages the smoothed complexity analysis by Spielman and Teng to circumvent paradoxes and impossibility theorems in social choice, motivated by modern applications of social choice powered by AI and ML. For Condrocet's paradox, we prove that the smoothed likelihood of the paradox either vanishes at an exponential rate as the number of agents increases, or does not vanish at all. For the ANR impossibility on the non-existence of voting rules that simultaneously satisfy anonymity, neutrality, and resolvability, we characterize the rate for the impossibility to vanish, to be either polynomially fast or exponentially fast. We also propose a novel easy-to-compute tie-breaking mechanism that optimally preserves anonymity and neutrality for even number of alternatives in natural settings. Our results illustrate the smoothed possibility of social choice--even though the paradox and the impossibility theorem hold in the worst case, they may not be a big concern in practice.


Clustering Redemption–Beyond the Impossibility of Kleinberg's Axioms

Neural Information Processing Systems

Kleinberg (2002) stated three axioms that any clustering procedure should satisfy and showed there is no clustering procedure that simultaneously satisfies all three. One of these, called the consistency axiom, requires that when the data is modified in a helpful way, i.e. if points in the same cluster are made more similar and those in different ones made less similar, the algorithm should output the same clustering. To circumvent this impossibility result, research has focused on considering clustering procedures that have a clustering quality measure (or a cost) and showing that a modification of Kleinberg's axioms that takes cost into account lead to feasible clustering procedures. In this work, we take a different approach, based on the observation that the consistency axiom fails to be satisfied when the "correct" number of clusters changes. We modify this axiom by making use of cost functions to determine the correct number of clusters, and require that consistency holds only if the number of clusters remains unchanged. We show that single linkage satisfies the modified axioms, and if the input is well-clusterable, some popular procedures such as k-means also satisfy the axioms, taking a step towards explaining the success of these objective functions for guiding the design of algorithms.


On the Impossibility of Separating Intelligence from Judgment: The Computational Intractability of Filtering for AI Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

With the increased deployment of large language models (LLMs), one concern is their potential misuse for generating harmful content. Our work studies the alignment challenge, with a focus on filters to prevent the generation of unsafe information. Two natural points of intervention are the filtering of the input prompt before it reaches the model, and filtering the output after generation. Our main results demonstrate computational challenges in filtering both prompts and outputs. First, we show that there exist LLMs for which there are no efficient prompt filters: adversarial prompts that elicit harmful behavior can be easily constructed, which are computationally indistinguishable from benign prompts for any efficient filter. Our second main result identifies a natural setting in which output filtering is computationally intractable. All of our separation results are under cryptographic hardness assumptions. In addition to these core findings, we also formalize and study relaxed mitigation approaches, demonstrating further computational barriers. We conclude that safety cannot be achieved by designing filters external to the LLM internals (architecture and weights); in particular, black-box access to the LLM will not suffice. Based on our technical results, we argue that an aligned AI system's intelligence cannot be separated from its judgment.


On the Mathematical Impossibility of Safe Universal Approximators

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We establish fundamental mathematical limits on universal approximation theorem (UAT) system alignment by proving that catastrophic failures are an inescapable feature of any useful computational system. Our central thesis is that for any universal approximator, the expressive power required for useful computation is inextricably linked to a dense set of instabilities that make perfect, reliable control a mathematical impossibility. We prove this through a three-level argument that leaves no escape routes for any class of universal approximator architecture. i) Combinatorial Necessity: For the vast majority of practical universal approximators (e.g., those using ReLU activations), we prove that the density of catastrophic failure points is directly proportional to the network's expressive power. ii) Topological Necessity: For any theoretical universal approximator, we use singularity theory to prove that the ability to approximate generic functions requires the ability to implement the dense, catastrophic singularities that characterize them. iii) Empirical Necessity: We prove that the universal existence of adversarial examples is empirical evidence that real-world tasks are themselves catastrophic, forcing any successful model to learn and replicate these instabilities. These results, combined with a quantitative "Impossibility Sandwich" showing that the minimum complexity for usefulness exceeds the maximum complexity for safety, demonstrate that perfect alignment is not an engineering challenge but a mathematical impossibility. This foundational result reframes UAT safety from a problem of "how to achieve perfect control" to one of "how to operate safely in the presence of irreducible uncontrollability," with profound implications for the future of UAT development and governance.


The Alignment Trap: Complexity Barriers

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper argues that AI alignment is not merely difficult, but is founded on a fundamental logical contradiction. We first establish The Enumeration Paradox: we use machine learning precisely because we cannot enumerate all necessary safety rules, yet making ML safe requires examples that can only be generated from the very enumeration we admit is impossible. This paradox is then confirmed by a set of five independent mathematical proofs, or "pillars of impossibility." Our main results show that: (1) Geometric Impossibility: The set of safe policies has measure zero, a necessary consequence of projecting infinite-dimensional world-context requirements onto finite-dimensional models. (2) Computational Impossibility: Verifying a policy's safety is coNP-complete, even for non-zero error tolerances. (3) Statistical Impossibility: The training data required for safety (abundant examples of rare disasters) is a logical contradiction and thus unobtainable. (4) Information-Theoretic Impossibility: Safety rules contain more incompressible, arbitrary information than any feasible network can store. (5) Dynamic Impossibility: The optimization process for increasing AI capability is actively hostile to safety, as the gradients for the two objectives are generally anti-aligned. Together, these results demonstrate that the pursuit of safe, highly capable AI is not a matter of overcoming technical hurdles, but of confronting fundamental, interlocking barriers. The paper concludes by presenting a strategic trilemma that these impossibilities force upon the field. A formal verification of the core theorems in Lean4 is currently in progress.