METR's time horizon metric has grown exponentially since 2019, along with compute. However, it is unclear whether compute scaling will persist at current rates through 2030, raising the question of how possible compute slowdowns might impact AI agent capability forecasts. Given a model of time horizon as a function of training compute and algorithms, along with a model of how compute investment spills into algorithmic progress (which, notably, precludes the possibility of a software-only singularity), and the empirical fact that both time horizon and compute have grown at constant rates over 2019--2025, we derive that time horizon growth must be proportional to compute growth. We provide additional, albeit limited, experimental evidence consistent with this theory. We use our model to project time horizon growth under OpenAI's compute projection, finding substantial projected delays in some cases. For example, 1-month time horizons at $80\%$ reliability occur $7$ years later than simple trend extrapolation suggests.

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We also describe how to use predictors (i.e., the

We show that if the predictor is accurate, we can efficiently bypass these impossibility results and achieve a constant-factor approximation to the optimal solution, i.e., consistency.

We first examine how H -consistency bounds vary across surrogates based on the number of classes.

Learning the underlying dynamics of single cells from snapshot data has gained increasing attention in scientific and machine learning research. The destructive measurement technique and cell proliferation/death result in unpaired and unbalanced data between snapshots, making the learning of the underlying dynamics challenging. In this paper, we propose joint Velocity-Growth Flow Matching (VGFM), a novel paradigm that jointly learns state transition and mass growth of single-cell populations via flow matching. VGFM builds an ideal single-cell dynamics containing velocity of state and growth of mass, driven by a presented two-period dynamic understanding of the static semi-relaxed optimal transport, a mathematical tool that seeks the coupling between unpaired and unbalanced data. To enable practical usage, we approximate the ideal dynamics using neural networks, forming our joint velocity and growth matching framework. A distribution fitting loss is also employed in VGFM to further improve the fitting performance for snapshot data. Extensive experimental results on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that VGFM can capture the underlying biological dynamics accounting for mass and state variations over time, outperforming existing approaches for single-cell dynamics modeling.

Responding to disease outbreaks requires close surveillance of their trajectories, but outbreak detection is hindered by the high noise in epidemic time series. Aggregating information across data sources has shown great denoising ability in other fields, but remains underexplored in epidemiology. Here, we present LRTrend, an interpretable machine learning framework to identify outbreaks in real time. LRTrend effectively aggregates diverse health and behavioral data streams within one region and learns disease-specific epidemic networks to aggregate information across regions. We reveal diverse epidemic clusters and connections across the United States that are not well explained by commonly used human mobility networks and may be informative for future public health coordination. We apply LRTrend to 2 years of COVID-19 data in 305 hospital referral regions and frequently detect regional Delta and Omicron waves within 2 weeks of the outbreak's start, when case counts are a small fraction of the wave's resulting peak.

Preprint repositories become central infrastructures for scholarly communication. Their expansion transforms how research is circulated and evaluated before journal publication. Generative large language models (LLMs) introduce a further potential disruption by altering how manuscripts are written. While speculation abounds, systematic evidence of whether and how LLMs reshape scientific publishing remains limited. This paper addresses the gap through a large-scale analysis of more than 2.1 million preprints spanning 2016--2025 (115 months) across four major repositories (i.e., arXiv, bioRxiv, medRxiv, SocArXiv). We introduce a multi-level analytical framework that integrates interrupted time-series models, collaboration and productivity metrics, linguistic profiling, and topic modeling to assess changes in volume, authorship, style, and disciplinary orientation. Our findings reveal that LLMs have accelerated submission and revision cycles, modestly increased linguistic complexity, and disproportionately expanded AI-related topics, while computationally intensive fields benefit more than others. These results show that LLMs act less as universal disruptors than as selective catalysts, amplifying existing strengths and widening disciplinary divides. By documenting these dynamics, the paper provides the first empirical foundation for evaluating the influence of generative AI on academic publishing and highlights the need for governance frameworks that preserve trust, fairness, and accountability in an AI-enabled research ecosystem.

MODELING AI-DRIVEN PRODUCTION AND COMPETITIVENESS: A MUL TI-AGENT ECONOMIC SIMULA TION OF CHINA AND THE UNITED ST A TES Y uxinyue Qian, Jun Liu Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications liujun@bupt.edu.cn ABSTRACT With the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, socio-economic systems are entering a new stage of "human-AI co-creation." Building upon a previously established multi-level intelligent agent economic model, this paper conducts simulation-based comparisons of macroeconomic output evolution in China and the United States under different mechanisms--AI collaboration, network effects, and AI autonomous production. The results show that: (1) when AI functions as an independent productive entity, the overall growth rate of social output far exceeds that of traditional human-labor-based models; (2) China demonstrates clear potential for acceleration in both the expansion of intelligent agent populations and the pace of technological catch-up, offering the possibility of achieving technological convergence or even partial surpassing. This study provides a systematic, model-based analytical framework for understanding AI-driven production system transformation and shifts in international competitiveness, as well as quantitative insights for relevant policy formulation. Comparison 1. INTRODUCTION Since the beginning of the 21st century, the rapid evolution of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous intelligent agents (AI agents) has profoundly reshaped the operating mechanisms of socioeconomic systems. Overall, the United States maintains a significant lead in core model development and capital investment.