Do you need to worry about Mythos, Anthropic's computer-hacking AI? A powerful AI kept from public access because of its ability to hack computers with impunity is making headlines around the world. But what is Mythos, does it really represent a risk and might it even be used to improve cybersecurity? Anthropic's Project Glasswing aims to improve online security The past few weeks have brought apparently alarming news of Mythos, an AI that can identify cybersecurity flaws in a matter of moments, leaving operating systems and software vulnerable to hackers. The cybersecurity community is now beginning to get a better sense of how Mythos may change the face of cybersecurity - and not necessarily for the worse.

We study the problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional generalized linear models, and propose an approach based on sample-weighted empirical risk minimization. Our method, Weighted ERM, encodes priors on the change points via weights assigned to each sample, to obtain weighted versions of standard estimators such as M-estimators and maximum-likelihood estimators. Under mild assumptions on the data, we obtain a precise asymptotic characterization of the performance of our method for general Gaussian designs, in the high-dimensional limit where the number of samples and covariate dimension grow proportionally. We show how this characterization can be used to efficiently construct a posterior distribution over change points. Numerical experiments on both simulated and real data illustrate the efficacy of Weighted ERM compared to existing approaches, demonstrating that sample weights constructed with weakly informative priors can yield accurate change point estimators. Our method is implemented as an open-source package, weightederm, available in Python and R.

Machine learning has opened new frontiers in purely data-driven algorithms for data assimilation in, and for forecasting of, dynamical systems; the resulting methods are showing some promise. However, in contrast to model-driven algorithms, analysis of these data-driven methods is poorly developed. In this paper we address this issue, developing a theory to underpin data-driven methods to solve smoothing problems arising in data assimilation and forecasting problems. The theoretical framework relies on two key components: (i) establishing the existence of the mapping to be learned; (ii) the properties of the operator learning architecture used to approximate this mapping. By studying these two components in conjunction, we establish novel universal approximation theorems for purely data driven algorithms for both smoothing and forecasting of dynamical systems. We work in the continuous time setting, hence deploying neural operator architectures. The theoretical results are illustrated with experiments studying the Lorenz `63, Lorenz `96 and Kuramoto-Sivashinsky dynamical systems.

Beckmann's problem in optimal transport minimizes the total squared flux in a continuous transport problem from a source to a target distribution. In this article, the regularity theory for solutions to Beckmann's problem in optimal transport is developed utilizing an unconstrained Lagrangian formulation and solving the variational first order optimality conditions. It turns out that the Lagrangian multiplier that enforces Beckmann's divergence constraint fulfills a Poisson equation and the flux vector field is obtained as the potential's gradient. Utilizing Schauder estimates from elliptic regularity theory, the exact Hölder regularity of the potential, the flux and the flow generating is derived on the basis of Hölder regularity of source and target densities on a bounded, regular domain. If the target distribution depends on parameters, as is the case in conditional (``promptable'') generative learning, we provide sufficient conditions for separate and joint Hölder continuity of the resulting vector field in the parameter and the data dimension. Following a recent result by Belomnestny et al., one can thus approximate such vector fields with deep ReQu neural networks in C^(k,alpha)-Hölder norm. We also show that this approach generalizes to other probability paths, like Fisher-Rao gradient flows.

Partial monitoring games are repeated games where the learner receives feedback that might be different from adversary's move or even the reward gained by the learner. Recently, a general model of combinatorial partial monitoring (CPM) games was proposed \cite{lincombinatorial2014}, where the learner's action space can be exponentially large and adversary samples its moves from a bounded, continuous space, according to a fixed distribution. The paper gave a confidence bound based algorithm (GCB) that achieves $O(T^{2/3}\log T)$ distribution independent and $O(\log T)$ distribution dependent regret bounds. The implementation of their algorithm depends on two separate offline oracles and the distribution dependent regret additionally requires existence of a unique optimal action for the learner. Adopting their CPM model, our first contribution is a Phased Exploration with Greedy Exploitation (PEGE) algorithmic framework for the problem.

Policy gradient methods are widely used for control in reinforcement learning, particularly for the continuous action setting. There have been a host of theoretically sound algorithms proposed for the on-policy setting, due to the existence of the policy gradient theorem which provides a simplified form for the gradient. In off-policy learning, however, where the behaviour policy is not necessarily attempting to learn and follow the optimal policy for the given task, the existence of such a theorem has been elusive. In this work, we solve this open problem by providing the first off-policy policy gradient theorem. The key to the derivation is the use of emphatic weightings. We develop a new actor-critic algorithm--called Actor Critic with Emphatic weightings (ACE)--that approximates the simplified gradients provided by the theorem. We demonstrate in a simple counterexample that previous off-policy policy gradient methods--particularly OffPAC and DPG--converge to the wrong solution whereas ACE finds the optimal solution.

In contrast, we design a discrete-time algorithm and derive its convergence rate solely under weakly monotone conditions.

The optimization phase in deep learning consists in minimizing an objective function w.r.t. the set of

However, these results can be too general to be applicable to natural data distributions. Indeed, humans are quite robust for tasks involving vision.