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Modeling Spatio-temporal Extremes via Conditional Variational Autoencoders

Ma, Xiaoyu, Zhang, Likun, Wikle, Christopher K.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Extreme weather events are widely studied in fields such as agriculture, ecology, and meteorology. The spatio-temporal co-occurrence of extreme events can strengthen or weaken under changing climate conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to model spatio-temporal extremes by integrating climate indices via a conditional variational autoencoder (cXVAE). A convolutional neural network (CNN) is embedded in the decoder to convolve climatological indices with the spatial dependence within the latent space, thereby allowing the decoder to be dependent on the climate variables. There are three main contributions here. First, we demonstrate through extensive simulations that the proposed conditional XVAE accurately emulates spatial fields and recovers spatially and temporally varying extremal dependence with very low computational cost post training. Second, we provide a simple, scalable approach to detecting condition-driven shifts and whether the dependence structure is invariant to the conditioning variable. Third, when dependence is found to be condition-sensitive, the conditional XVAE supports counterfactual experiments allowing intervention on the climate covariate and propagating the associated change through the learned decoder to quantify differences in joint tail risk, co-occurrence ranges, and return metrics. To demonstrate the practical utility and performance of the model in real-world scenarios, we apply our method to analyze the monthly maximum Fire Weather Index (FWI) over eastern Australia from 2014 to 2024 conditioned on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index.




Readers Prefer Outputs of AI Trained on Copyrighted Books over Expert Human Writers

Chakrabarty, Tuhin, Ginsburg, Jane C., Dhillon, Paramveer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The use of copyrighted books for training AI models has led to numerous lawsuits from authors concerned about AI's ability to generate derivative content. Yet it's unclear if these models can generate high quality literary text while emulating authors' styles. To answer this we conducted a preregistered study comparing MFA-trained expert writers with three frontier AI models: ChatGPT, Claude & Gemini in writing up to 450 word excerpts emulating 50 award-winning authors' diverse styles. In blind pairwise evaluations by 159 representative expert & lay readers, AI-generated text from in-context prompting was strongly disfavored by experts for both stylistic fidelity (OR=0.16, p<10^-8) & writing quality (OR=0.13, p<10^-7) but showed mixed results with lay readers. However, fine-tuning ChatGPT on individual authors' complete works completely reversed these findings: experts now favored AI-generated text for stylistic fidelity (OR=8.16, p<10^-13) & writing quality (OR=1.87, p=0.010), with lay readers showing similar shifts. These effects generalize across authors & styles. The fine-tuned outputs were rarely flagged as AI-generated (3% rate v. 97% for in-context prompting) by best AI detectors. Mediation analysis shows this reversal occurs because fine-tuning eliminates detectable AI stylistic quirks (e.g., cliche density) that penalize in-context outputs. While we do not account for additional costs of human effort required to transform raw AI output into cohesive, publishable prose, the median fine-tuning & inference cost of $81 per author represents a dramatic 99.7% reduction compared to typical professional writer compensation. Author-specific fine-tuning thus enables non-verbatim AI writing that readers prefer to expert human writing, providing empirical evidence directly relevant to copyright's fourth fair-use factor, the "effect upon the potential market or value" of the source works.


Causal Climate Emulation with Bayesian Filtering

Hickman, Sebastian, Trajkovic, Ilija, Kaltenborn, Julia, Pelletier, Francis, Archibald, Alex, Gurwicz, Yaniv, Nowack, Peer, Rolnick, David, Boussard, Julien

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traditional models of climate change use complex systems of coupled equations to simulate physical processes across the Earth system. These simulations are highly computationally expensive, limiting our predictions of climate change and analyses of its causes and effects. Machine learning has the potential to quickly emulate data from climate models, but current approaches are not able to incorporate physically-based causal relationships. Here, we develop an interpretable climate model emulator based on causal representation learning. We derive a novel approach including a Bayesian filter for stable long-term autoregressive emulation. We demonstrate that our emulator learns accurate climate dynamics, and we show the importance of each one of its components on a realistic synthetic dataset and data from two widely deployed climate models.


Score-based generative emulation of impact-relevant Earth system model outputs

Bouabid, Shahine, Souza, Andre Nogueira, Ferrari, Raffaele

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Policy targets evolve faster than the Couple Model Intercomparison Project cycles, complicating adaptation and mitigation planning that must often contend with outdated projections. Climate model output emulators address this gap by offering inexpensive surrogates that can rapidly explore alternative futures while staying close to Earth System Model (ESM) behavior. We focus on emulators designed to provide inputs to impact models. Using monthly ESM fields of near-surface temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed, we show that deep generative models have the potential to model jointly the distribution of variables relevant for impacts. The specific model we propose uses score-based diffusion on a spherical mesh and runs on a single mid-range graphical processing unit. We introduce a thorough suite of diagnostics to compare emulator outputs with their parent ESMs, including their probability densities, cross-variable correlations, time of emergence, or tail behavior. We evaluate performance across three distinct ESMs in both pre-industrial and forced regimes. The results show that the emulator produces distributions that closely match the ESM outputs and captures key forced responses. They also reveal important failure cases, notably for variables with a strong regime shift in the seasonal cycle. Although not a perfect match to the ESM, the inaccuracies of the emulator are small relative to the scale of internal variability in ESM projections. We therefore argue that it shows potential to be useful in supporting impact assessment. We discuss priorities for future development toward daily resolution, finer spatial scales, and bias-aware training. Code is made available at https://github.com/shahineb/climemu.


PUL-Inter-slice Defender: An Anomaly Detection Solution for Distributed Slice Mobility Attacks

Molina, Ricardo Misael Ayala, Alameddine, Hyame Assem, Pourzandi, Makan, Assi, Chadi

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Network Slices (NSs) are virtual networks operating over a shared physical infrastructure, each designed to meet specific application requirements while maintaining consistent Quality of Service (QoS). In Fifth Generation (5G) networks, User Equipment (UE) can connect to and seamlessly switch between multiple NSs to access diverse services. However, this flexibility, known as Inter-Slice Switching (ISS), introduces a potential vulnerability that can be exploited to launch Distributed Slice Mobility (DSM) attacks, a form of Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) attack. To secure 5G networks and their NSs against DSM attacks, we present in this work, PUL-Inter-Slice Defender; an anomaly detection solution that leverages Positive Unlabeled Learning (PUL) and incorporates a combination of Long Short-Term Memory Autoencoders and K-Means clustering. PUL-Inter-Slice Defender leverages the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) key performance indicators and performance measurement counters as features for its machine learning models to detect DSM attack variants while maintaining robustness in the presence of contaminated training data. When evaluated on data collected from our 5G testbed based on the open-source free5GC and UERANSIM, a UE/ Radio Access Network (RAN) simulator; PUL-Inter-Slice Defender achieved F1-scores exceeding 98.50% on training datasets with 10% to 40% attack contamination, consistently outperforming its counterpart Inter-Slice Defender and other PUL based solutions combining One-Class Support Vector Machine (OCSVM) with Random Forest and XGBoost.


The NordDRG AI Benchmark for Large Language Models

Pitkäranta, Tapio

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) are being piloted for clinical coding and decision support, yet no open benchmark targets the hospital-funding layer where Diagnosis-Related Groups (DRGs) determine reimbursement. In most OECD systems, DRGs route a substantial share of multi-trillion-dollar health spending through governed grouper software, making transparency and auditability first-order concerns. We release NordDRG-AI-Benchmark, the first public, rule-complete test bed for DRG reasoning. The package includes (i) machine-readable approximately 20-sheet NordDRG definition tables and (ii) expert manuals and change-log templates that capture governance workflows. It exposes two suites: a 13-task Logic benchmark (code lookup, cross-table inference, grouping features, multilingual terminology, and CC/MCC validity checks) and a 13-task Grouper benchmark that requires full DRG grouper emulation with strict exact-match scoring on both the DRG and the triggering drg_logic.id. Lightweight reference agents (LogicAgent, GrouperAgent) enable artefact-only evaluation. Under an artefact-only (no web) setting, on the 13 Logic tasks GPT-5 Thinking and Opus 4.1 score 13/13, o3 scores 12/13; mid-tier models (GPT-5 Thinking Mini, o4-mini, GPT-5 Fast) achieve 6-8/13, and remaining models score 5/13 or below. On full grouper emulation across 13 tasks, GPT-5 Thinking solves 7/13, o3 6/13, o4-mini 3/13; GPT-5 Thinking Mini solves 1/13, and all other tested endpoints score 0/13. To our knowledge, this is the first public report of an LLM partially emulating the complete NordDRG grouper logic with governance-grade traceability. Coupling a rule-complete release with exact-match tasks and open scoring provides a reproducible yardstick for head-to-head and longitudinal evaluation in hospital funding. Benchmark materials available in Github.