This work is a commentary of the article \href{https://doi.org/10.18716/ojs/phai/2025.2801}{AI Survival Stories: a Taxonomic Analysis of AI Existential Risk} by Cappelen, Goldstein, and Hawthorne. It is not just a commentary though, but a useful reminder of the philosophical limitations of \say{linear} models of risk. The article will focus on the model employed by the authors: first, I discuss some differences between standard Swiss Cheese models and this one. I then argue that in a situation of epistemic indifference the probability of P(D) is higher than what one might first suggest, given the structural relationships between layers. I then distinguish between risk and uncertainty, and argue that any estimation of P(D) is structurally affected by two kinds of uncertainty: option uncertainty and state-space uncertainty. Incorporating these dimensions of uncertainty into our qualitative discussion on AI existential risk can provide a better understanding of the likeliness of P(D).

Tech billionaires seem to be doom prepping. Should we all be worried? Mark Zuckerberg is said to have started work on Koolau Ranch, his sprawling 1,400-acre compound on the Hawaiian island of Kauai, as far back as 2014. It is set to include a shelter, complete with its own energy and food supplies, though the carpenters and electricians working on the site were banned from talking about it by non-disclosure agreements, according to a report by Wired magazine. A six-foot wall blocked the project from view of a nearby road.

On a little known YouTube channel, a breezy, British narrator is explaining the ins and outs of Doom: The Dark Ages' story. Though not named, his voice may be familiar to video game fans as that of Mark Brown. The trouble is, Brown had nothing to do with the video. Brown, who goes by Game Maker's Toolkit, is a content creator and developer who's covered video game design for over a decade. His channel has 220 videos, broadcast to over 1.65 million subscribers, where he gives in-depth explanations on things like puzzle mechanics in Blue Prince or addresses UI problems in The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom.

Much has been made of the fact that the year's most recent breakout hit, an idiosyncratic role-playing game called Clair Obscur: Expedition 33, was made by a small team. It's a tempting narrative in this age of blockbuster mega-flops, live-service games and eye-watering budgets: scrappy team makes a lengthy, unusual and beautiful thing, sells it for 40, and everybody wins. The Guardian's journalism is independent. We will earn a commission if you buy something through an affiliate link. Sandfall Interactive, the game's French developer, comprises around 30 people, but as Rock Paper Shotgun points out, there are many more listed in the game's credits – from a Korean animation team to the outsourced quality assurance testers, and the localisation and performance staff who give the game and its story heft and emotional believability.

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have led to a diverse set of predictions about its long-term impact on humanity. A central focus is the potential emergence of transformative AI (TAI), eventually capable of outperforming humans in all economically valuable tasks and fully automating labor. Discussed scenarios range from human extinction after a misaligned TAI takes over ("AI doom") to unprecedented economic growth and abundance ("post-scarcity"). However, the probabilities and implications of these scenarios remain highly uncertain. Here, we organize the various scenarios and evaluate their associated existential risks and economic outcomes in terms of aggregate welfare. Our analysis shows that even low-probability catastrophic outcomes justify large investments in AI safety and alignment research. We find that the optimizing representative individual would rationally allocate substantial resources to mitigate extinction risk; in some cases, she would prefer not to develop TAI at all. This result highlights that current global efforts in AI safety and alignment research are vastly insufficient relative to the scale and urgency of existential risks posed by TAI. Our findings therefore underscore the need for stronger safeguards to balance the potential economic benefits of TAI with the prevention of irreversible harm. Addressing these risks is crucial for steering technological progress toward sustainable human prosperity.

Ahead of the 21st Bafta games awards this April, the institution is running a public survey asking people to nominate the most influential video game of all time. As the survey points out, this is an open-ended question: early, groundbreaking titles such as Space Invaders and Pong regularly crop up as answers because they helped write the rules of the form, but on a personal level, the right game at the right time can be exceptionally influential, too. For players, it's often the games that made us feel differently about what games could do that feel the most influential. For a game designer, a film director, a writer or a musician, one particular game might inspire a whole creative era. Inspired by Bafta's survey, we asked people from across games and culture for their most influential game – and not one name cropped up twice.

An artificial intelligence model from Microsoft can recreate realistic video game footage that the company says could help designers make games, but experts are unconvinced that the tool will be useful for most game developers. Neural networks that can produce coherent and accurate footage from video games are not new. A recent Google-created AI generated a fully playable version of the classic computer game Doom without access to the underlying game engine. The original Doom, however, was released in 1993; more modern games are far more complex, with sophisticated physics and computationally intensive graphics, which have proved trickier for AIs to faithfully recreate. Google creates self-replicating life from digital'primordial soup' Now, Katja Hofmann at Microsoft Research and her colleagues have developed an AI model called Muse, which can recreate full sequences of the multiplayer online battle game Bleeding Edge. These sequences appear to obey the game's underlying physics and keep players and in-game objects consistent over time, which implies that the model has grasped a deep understanding of the game, says Hofmann.

Thanks to some distinctly Scottish weather over the holidays, my family and I ended up celebrating Hogmanay at home rather than at the party we'd planned to attend. My smallest son's wee pal and his parents came over for dinner, and when the smaller members of our group started to spiral out of control around 9pm, we threw them a little midnight countdown party in Animal Crossing. The last time I played Animal Crossing was in the depths of lockdown. Tending my island paradise helped me cope while largely imprisoned in a 2.5 bedroom basement flat with a baby, a toddler and a teenager. Our guests had brought their family Switch, and we set up the kids with their little avatars so they could join the animals' New Year party. They spent about 10 minutes gleefully whacking each other with bug nets before gathering with the other inhabitants in the square with a giant countdown clock in the background, the island's racoon magnate Tom Nook offering party poppers and shiny top-hats.

As investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and lately for a Trump Presidency, has been driving the stock market to record highs this year, Jeremy Grantham has been having flashbacks. At the end of the nineteen-nineties, the veteran value investor--one that looks for undervalued stocks--shied away from soaring Internet and technology stocks, believing that their prices had departed from financial reality, and that the market was heading for a crash. Far from thanking him for sounding the alarm, many clients of G.M.O., a Boston-based investment-management firm that Grantham had co-founded, held it responsible for making them miss out on a vertiginous rise in the Nasdaq, which went up by about a hundred and sixty per cent between 1998 and 1999. Some withdrew their money from the company. "We started off in a good position, and in two years we lost almost half of our business," Grantham recalled.

We present GameNGen, the first game engine powered entirely by a neural model that enables real-time interaction with a complex environment over long trajectories at high quality. GameNGen can interactively simulate the classic game DOOM at over 20 frames per second on a single TPU. Next frame prediction achieves a PSNR of 29.4, comparable to lossy JPEG compression. Human raters are only slightly better than random chance at distinguishing short clips of the game from clips of the simulation. GameNGen is trained in two phases: (1) an RL-agent learns to play the game and the training sessions are recorded, and (2) a diffusion model is trained to produce the next frame, conditioned on the sequence of past frames and actions. Conditioning augmentations enable stable auto-regressive generation over long trajectories.