This paper presents a PAC-Bayes framework for learning controllers for unknown stochastic linear discrete-time systems, where the system parameters are drawn from a fixed but unknown distribution. We derive a data-dependent high probability bound on the performance of any learned (stochastic) controller, and propose novel efficient learning algorithms with theoretical guarantees, which can be implemented for both finite and infinite controller spaces. Compared to prior work, our bound holds for unbounded quadratic cost. In the special case where LQG is optimal, our numerical results suggest that the learned controllers achieve comparable performance to LQG.

A natural assumption is that if each model is individually calibrated, the aggregate prediction will also be well calibrated. We show that this assumption fails in multi-agent settings: individually calibrated predictors can become collectively miscalibrated when their predictions interact strategically--where "strategically" refers to the game-theoretic sense of Brier-optimal local response, not deliberate gaming or collusion, and arises naturally whenever agents are independently trained on overlapping data. This phenomenon affects multiple independent agents in federated healthcare, multi-vendor intrusion detection, and crowdsourced forecasting, where agents optimize their own objectives. Specifically, we prove that under Brier-score-based aggregation with positively correlated beliefs each agent's individually optimal report systematically underestimates the positive-class probability, yielding a Price of Anarchy strictly greater than one whenever Cov(bi,bj) > 0. At our canonical setting (n=5 agents, pairwise correlation ρ=0.5, base rate µ=0.3, threshold τ=0.3) the empirically measured PoA in false-negative rate is 7.25 (mean aggregate bias 0.375). In contrast, VCG-based aggregation, which rewards each agent's marginal contribution to aggregate accuracy, achieves dominant-strategy incentive compatibility and the lowest empirical PoA among all mechanisms studied (PoA 1.0). On three real-world datasets (NSL-KDD, UNSW-NB15, Credit Card Fraud) with featurepartitioned agents, VCG provides the strongest robustness guarantees among the aggregation methods we evaluate, while maintaining comparable accuracy. In data-sparse regimes (n 500), VCG consistently outperforms stacking and majority voting; under adversarial agents, VCG maintains substantially lower false-negative rates than robust aggregation baselines. Adaptive weight updates further reduce false negatives by 20-22% under distribution shift, with O( T) online regret guarantees. These results establish that how probabilistic predictions are aggregated matters as much as how well individual models are calibrated.

We present a machine learning framework for testing general relativity (GR) with gravitational wave signals from binary black hole mergers. Using the source parameters of 173 BBH events from the GWTC catalog as a realistic astrophysical population, we generate simulated GR waveforms and construct beyond GR (BGR) waveforms by applying controlled phase deformations. We introduce a response function formalism that provides a systematic framework for quantifying how any observable responds to modifications of GR. We train convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on two input representations: whitened waveforms and a response function type observable derived from the waveform mismatch, which isolates the effect of phase deviations from the bulk signal. Using response functions as the CNN input improves the classification sensitivity by a factor of approximately 33 compared to whitened waveforms, demonstrating that the choice of observable representation is as important as the classifier architecture. We study the fundamental limits of this classification through Bayes optimal error analysis, averaging methods that reveal coherent patterns hidden in noise, and a comparison between CNN accuracy and a single feature classifier as a proxy for human performance. At all deformation scales, the CNN outperforms the best single feature approach. We extend the framework to physically motivated theories using the parameterized post Einsteinian (ppE) formalism and apply it to massive gravity, where the classifier detects deviations for graviton masses of order $m_g \sim 10^{-23}\;\mathrm{eV}/c^2$ with aLIGO design sensitivity.

Advanced manufacturing technologies allow for the production of intricate parts featuring high shape complexity and spatially-varying material composition. Data fusion of point clouds with chromatic attributes provides 4D point clouds, a compact and informative representation that encodes both shape and material information. In this paper, we present a registration-free framework for Simultaneous Monitoring of shApe and Color (SMAC) via 4D point clouds. The proposed framework leverages Laplace-Beltrami operator spectral properties to capture and monitor geometric features and the relationship between shape and surface color. A combined monitoring scheme is proposed to effectively detect shape deformations and color anomalies, along with a spatially-aware post-signal diagnostic procedure to determine the source of change and localize color anomalies. Importantly, neither component relies on registration or mesh reconstruction, eliminating error-prone and computationally expensive preprocessing steps. A Monte Carlo simulation study and a case study on functionally graded materials demonstrate that SMAC achieves effective detection performance, particularly for subtle defects, while providing diagnostic capabilities to identify the source and location of anomalies.

In this paper, we examine the long-run behavior of regularized, no-regret learning in1 finite games. A well-known result in the field states that the empirical frequencies2 of no-regret play converge to the game's set of coarse correlated equilibria; however,3 our understanding of how the players' actual strategies evolve over time is much4 more limited - and, in many cases, non-existent. This issue is exacerbated by5 a series of recent results showing that only strict Nash equilibria are stable and6 attracting under regularized learning, thus making the relation between learning7 and pointwise solution concepts particularly elusive. In lieu of this, we take a more8 general approach and instead seek to characterize the setwise rationality properties9 of the players' day-to-day play. To that end, we focus on one of the most stringent10 criteria of setwise strategic stability, namely that any unilateral deviation from the11 set in question incurs a cost to the deviator - a property known as closedness under12 better replies (club).

The SC stands for the spectral complexity defined in [4]. We use the empirical estimation of k-variance and Lipschitz constant defined in section 5 to calculate kV-Margin and kV-GN-Margin. B.2 Variance of Empirical Estimation In Table 1, we show the average scores over 4 random sampled subsets. We now show the standard deviation in Table 4. Overall, the standard deviation of the estimation is fairly small, consistent to the observation in Theorem 7.

Although application examples of multilevel optimization have already been discussed since the 1990s, the development of solution methods was almost limited to bilevel cases due to the difficulty of the problem. In recent years, in machine learning, Franceschi et al. have proposed a method for solving bilevel optimization problems by replacing their lower-level problems with the T steepest descent update equations with some prechosen iteration number T. In this paper, we have developed a gradient-based algorithm for multilevel optimization with n levels based on their idea and proved that our reformulation asymptotically converges to the original multilevel problem. As far as we know, this is one of the first algorithms with some theoretical guarantee for multilevel optimization. Numerical experiments show that a trilevel hyperparameter learning model considering data poisoning produces more stable prediction results than an existing bilevel hyperparameter learning model in noisy data settings.

Recent works show that adversarial examples exist for random neural networks [Daniely and Shacham, 2020] and that these examples can be found using a single step of gradient ascent [Bubeck et al., 2021]. In this work, we extend this line of work to "lazy training" of neural networks - a dominant model in deep learning theory in which neural networks are provably efficiently learnable. We show that over-parametrized neural networks that are guaranteed to generalize well and enjoy strong computational guarantees remain vulnerable to attacks generated using a single step of gradient ascent.