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Federated Survival Analysis in Healthcare: A Multi-Model Evaluation on Cross-Institutional Heterogeneous Breast Cancer Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Survival analysis is central to clinical decision-making, yet reliable time-to-event models require large, diverse cohorts that are rarely available at a single institution, while privacy regulations restrict the centralization of patient data. Federated learning (FL) offers a privacy-preserving alternative by training shared models without exchanging raw data, but its effectiveness for survival modeling under realistic, heterogeneous conditions remains insufficiently understood. This paper presents a systematic, multi-model evaluation of federated survival analysis on a cross-institutional breast cancer cohort with naturally heterogeneous distributed clients. Three representative survival models, the Cox Proportional Hazards model, DeepSurv, and Random Survival Forest (RSF), are compared across centralized, local, and federated training, and three federated optimization strategies (FedAvg, FedProx, and FedAdam) are assessed for the gradient-based models. Results show that FL consistently outperforms local training and approaches, and occasionally exceeds, centralized performance, while RSF offers the best overall balance of discrimination, calibration, and robustness across heterogeneous clients. We further find that performance depends on the diversity of client distributions, and that FedAvg and FedProx are stronger and more stable than FedAdam. Based on these findings, we derive practical, decision-oriented guidelines mapping data, privacy, interpretability, and resource constraints to recommended model and training-paradigm choices for federated survival modeling in healthcare.


Neural Hamiltonian Diffusions for Modeling Structured Geometric Dynamics Sungwoo Park Department of Computer Science and Engineering Korea University sungwoo_park@korea.ac.kr

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose Neural Hamiltonian Diffusion (NHD), a unified framework for learning stochastic Hamiltonian dynamics on differentiable manifolds. Unlike conventional Hamiltonian Neural Networks (HNNs), which assume noise-free dynamics in flat Euclidean spaces, our approach models stochastic differential equations (SDEs) on curved manifolds endowed with both a Riemannian metric and a Poisson structure. Specifically, we parameterize a neural Hamiltonian and define the dynamics via a Stratonovich SDE whose drift is the Poisson vector field lifted horizontally to the orthonormal frame bundle. This construction ensures coordinate-invariant, gaugeconsistent dynamics across (pseudo-)Riemannian manifolds, enabling physically plausible modeling in systems with geometric constraints, periodicity, or relativistic structure. We establish generalization guarantees under curvature-dependent complexity and demonstrate applications across diverse scientific domains, including toroidal molecular dynamics, quantum spin systems, and relativistic n-body problems in Schwarzschild spacetime.


3b00db522fbd628390f41a010d0eaf1f-Paper-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

Explicit noise-level conditioning is widely regarded as essential for the effective operation of Graph Diffusion Models (GDMs). In this work, we challenge this assumption by investigating whether denoisers can implicitly infer noise levels directly from corrupted graph structures, potentially eliminating the need for explicit noise conditioning. To this end, we develop a theoretical framework centered on Bernoulli edge-flip corruptions and extend it to encompass more complex scenarios involving coupled structure-attribute noise. Extensive empirical evaluations on both synthetic and real-world graph datasets, using models such as GDSS and DiGress, provide strong support for our theoretical findings. Notably, unconditional GDMs achieve performance comparable or superior to their conditioned counterparts, while also offering reductions in parameters (4 6%) and computation time (8 10%). Our results suggest that the high-dimensional nature of graph data itself often encodes sufficient information for the denoising process, opening avenues for simpler, more efficient GDM architectures.


Betting on Moments: Legendre Jumper Martingales for Online Exchangeability Testing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We present a family of conformal test martingales based on shifted Legendre polynomials, which extends the Simple Jumper martingale. The Simple Legendre Jumper substitutes the linear betting function with a polynomial of arbitrary degree, thereby facilitating the detection of variance, skewness, and higher-order deviations from uniformity; the standard Simple Jumper is a specific instance of degree one. The Product Legendre Jumper integrates multiple polynomial degrees into a unified betting function, although its state space expands exponentially--a cost we refer to as the jumping tax. To address this issue, we introduce the Variational Legendre Jumper, which factorises the joint adaptation through a mean-field approximation, thereby reducing exponential scaling to linear time with minimal loss in power. Lastly, the Composite Legendre Jumper incorporates several jumping rates, ensuring a wealth floor under exchangeability and automatic adaptation to the shift's timescale. Empirical results from a real-world classification task demonstrate that the combined methods consistently surpass any single-degree martingale under distributional shift, and the composite variant is recommended as the default when the shift timescale is unknown.


How Different from the Past Temporal Time Series Forecasting with Self Supervised Deviation Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Spatio-temporal forecasting is essential for real-world applications such as traffic management and urban computing. Although recent methods have shown improved accuracy, they often fail to account for dynamic deviations between current inputs and historical patterns. These deviations contain critical signals that can significantly affect model performance. To fill this gap, we propose STSSDL, a Spatio-Temporal time series forecasting framework that incorporates a Self-Supervised Deviation Learning scheme to capture and utilize such deviations. ST-SSDL anchors each input to its historical average and discretizes the latent space using learnable prototypes that represent typical spatio-temporal patterns. Two auxiliary objectives are proposed to refine this structure: a contrastive loss that enhances inter-prototype discriminability and a deviation loss that regularizes the distance consistency between input representations and corresponding prototypes to quantify deviation. Optimized jointly with the forecasting objective, these components guide the model to organize its hidden space and improve generalization across diverse input conditions. Experiments on six benchmark datasets show that ST-SSDL consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple metrics. Visualizations further demonstrate its ability to adaptively respond to varying levels of deviation in complex spatio-temporal scenarios.



Language-Bias-Resilient Visual Question Answering via Adaptive Multi-Margin Collaborative Debiasing

Neural Information Processing Systems

Language bias in Visual Question Answering (VQA) arises when models exploit spurious statistical correlations between question templates and answers, particularly in out-of-distribution scenarios, thereby neglecting essential visual cues and compromising genuine multimodal reasoning. Despite numerous efforts to enhance the robustness of VQA models, a principled understanding of how such bias originates and influences model behavior remains underdeveloped. In this paper, we address this gap through a comprehensive empirical and theoretical analysis, revealing that modality-specific gradient imbalances, which originate from the inherent heterogeneity of multimodal data, lead to skewed feature fusion and biased classifier weights. To alleviate these issues, we propose a novel MultiMargin Collaborative Debiasing (MMCD) framework2, which adaptively integrates frequency-aware, confidence-aware, and difficulty-aware angular margins with a dynamic, difficulty-aware contrastive learning mechanism to reshape decision boundaries under biased training conditions. Extensive experiments across multiple challenging VQA benchmarks confirm the consistent superiority of our proposed MMCD over state-of-the-art baselines in combating language bias.


Hierarchical Implicit Neural Emulators

Neural Information Processing Systems

Neural PDE solvers offer a powerful tool for modeling complex dynamical systems, but often struggle with error accumulation over long time horizons and maintaining stability and physical consistency. We introduce a multiscale implicit neural emulator that enhances long-term prediction accuracy by conditioning on a hierarchy of lower-dimensional future state representations. Inspired by the stability properties of numerical implicit time-stepping methods, we developed an approach that leverages predictions several steps ahead in time at increasing compression rates for next-timestep refinements. By actively adjusting the temporal downsampling ratios, our design enables the model to capture dynamics across multiple granularities and enforce long-range temporal coherence. Experiments on turbulent fluid dynamics show that our method achieves high short-term accuracy and produces long-term stable forecasts, significantly outperforming non-hierarchical autoregressive baselines while adding minimal computational overhead. The codebase is available at this link1.


OriginalImageMaskFold 1Fold 2Fold 3Fold 4Fold 5IdealSplitRandomSplit

Neural Information Processing Systems

Random splitting of datasets in image segmentation often leads to unrepresentative test sets, resulting in biased evaluations and poor model generalization. While stratified sampling has proven effective for addressing label distribution imbalance in classification tasks, extending these ideas to segmentation remains challenging due to the multi-label structure and class imbalance typically present in such data. Building on existing stratification concepts, we introduce Iterative Pixel Stratification (IPS), a straightforward, label-aware sampling method tailored for segmentation tasks. Additionally, we present Wasserstein-Driven Evolutionary Stratification (WDES), a novel genetic algorithm designed to minimize the Wasserstein distance, thereby optimizing the similarity of label distributions across dataset splits. We prove that WDES is globally optimal given enough generations. Using newly proposed statistical heterogeneity metrics, we evaluate both methods against random sampling and find that WDES consistently produces more representative splits. Applying WDES across diverse segmentation tasks, including street scenes, medical imaging, and satellite imagery, leads to lower performance variance and improved model evaluation. Our results also highlight the particular value of WDES in handling small, imbalanced, and low-diversity datasets, where conventional splitting strategies are most prone to bias.


The Complexity of Correlated Equilibria in Generalized Games

Neural Information Processing Systems

Correlated equilibria--and their generalizations known as Φ-equilibria--are a fundamental object of study in game theory, offering a more tractable alternative to Nash equilibria in multi-player settings. While computational aspects of equilibrium computation are well-understood in some settings, fundamental questions are still open in generalized games, that is, games in which the set of strategies allowed to each player depends on the other players' strategies. These classes of games model fundamental settings in economics, and have been a cornerstone of economics research since the seminal paper of Arrow and Debreu [1954]. Recently, there has been growing interest, both in economics and in computer science, in studying correlated equilibria in generalized games. It is known that finding a social welfare maximizing correlated equilibrium in generalized games is NP-hard. However, the existence of efficient algorithms to find any equilibrium remains an important open question.