We establish finite-time last-iterate guarantees for vanilla stochastic gradient descent in co-coercive games under noisy feedback. This is a broad class of games that is more general than strongly monotone games, allows for multiple Nash equilibria, and includes examples such as quadratic games with negative semidefinite interaction matrices and potential games with smooth concave potentials. Prior work in this setting has relied on relative noise models, where the noise vanishes as iterates approach equilibrium, an assumption that is often unrealistic in practice. We work instead under a substantially more general noise model in which the second moment of the noise is allowed to scale affinely with the squared norm of the iterates, an assumption natural in learning with unbounded action spaces. Under this model, we prove a last-iterate bound of order $O(\log(t)/t^{1/3})$, the first such bound for co-coercive games under non-vanishing noise. We additionally establish almost sure convergence of the iterates to the set of Nash equilibria and derive time-average convergence guarantees.

\We introduce the horospherical depth, an intrinsic notion of statistical depth on Hadamard manifolds, and define the Busemann median as the set of its maximizers. The construction exploits the fact that the linear functionals appearing in Tukey's half-space depth are themselves limits of renormalized distance functions; on a Hadamard manifold the same limiting procedure produces Busemann functions, whose sublevel sets are horoballs, the intrinsic replacements for halfspaces. The resulting depth is parametrized by the visual boundary, is isometry-equivariant, and requires neither tangent-space linearization nor a chosen base point.For arbitrary Hadamard manifolds, we prove that the depth regions are nested and geodesically convex, that a centerpoint of depth at least $1/(d+1)$ exists, and hence that the Busemann median exists for every Borel probability measure. Under strictly negative sectional curvature and mild regularity assumptions, the depth is strictly quasi-concave and the median is unique. We also establish robustness: the depth is stable under total-variation perturbations, and under contamination escaping to infinity the limiting median depends on the escape direction but not on how far the contaminating mass has moved along the geodesic ray, in contrast with the Fréchet mean. Finally, we establish uniform consistency of the sample depth and convergence of sample depth regions and sample Busemann medians; on symmetric spaces of noncompact type, the argument proceeds through a VC analysis of upper horospherical halfspaces, while on general Hadamard manifolds it follows from a compactness argument under a mild non-atomicity assumption.

Recent work has shown that parameterizing and optimizing coordinate transformations using normalizing flows, i.e., invertible neural networks, can significantly accelerate the convergence of spectral approximations. We present the first error estimates for approximating functions using Hermite expansions composed with adaptive coordinate transformations. Our analysis establishes an equivalence principle: approximating a function $f$ in the span of the transformed basis is equivalent to approximating the pullback of $f$ in the span of Hermite functions. This allows us to leverage the classical approximation theory of Hermite expansions to derive error estimates in transformed coordinates in terms of the regularity of the pullback. We present an example demonstrating how a nonlinear coordinate transformation can enhance the convergence of Hermite expansions. Focusing on smooth functions decaying along the real axis, we construct a monotone transport map that aligns the decay of the target function with the Hermite basis. This guarantees spectral convergence rates for the corresponding Hermite expansion. Our analysis provides theoretical insight into the convergence behavior of adaptive Hermite approximations based on normalizing flows, as recently explored in the computational quantum physics literature.

In variety testing, multi-environment trials (MET) are essential for evaluating the genotypic performance of crop plants. A persistent challenge in the statistical analysis of MET data is the estimation of variance components, which are often still inaccurately estimated or shrunk to exactly zero when using residual (restricted) maximum likelihood (REML) approaches. At the same time, institutions conducting MET typically possess extensive historical data that can, in principle, be leveraged to improve variance component estimation. However, these data are rarely incorporated sufficiently. The purpose of this paper is to address this gap by proposing a Bayesian framework that systematically integrates historical information to stabilize variance component estimation and better quantify uncertainty. Our Bayesian linear mixed model (BLMM) reformulation uses priors and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to maintain the variance components as positive, yielding more realistic distributional estimates. Furthermore, our model incorporates historical prior information by managing MET data in successive historical data windows. Variance component prior and posterior distributions are shown to be conjugate and belong to the inverse gamma and inverse Wishart families. While Bayesian methodology is increasingly being used for analyzing MET data, to the best of our knowledge, this study comprises one of the first serious attempts to objectively inform priors in the context of MET data. This refers to the proposed Bayesian updating approach. To demonstrate the framework, we consider an application where posterior variance component samples are plugged into an A-optimality experimental design criterion to determine the average optimal allocations of trials to agro-ecological zones in a sub-divided target population of environments (TPE).

Davis, Drusvyatskiy, and Jiang showed that gradient descent with an adaptive stepsize converges locally at a nearly-linear rate for smooth functions that grow at least quartically away from their minimizers. The argument is intricate, relying on monitoring the performance of the algorithm relative to a certain manifold of slow growth -- called the ravine. In this work, we provide a direct Lyapunov-based argument that bypasses these difficulties when the objective is in addition convex and a has a unique minimizer. As a byproduct of the argument, we obtain a more adaptive variant than the original algorithm with encouraging numerical performance.

In recent years, the widespreadavailability of large-scale, high-dimensionaldatasets has driven significant interest in clustering algorithms that are both computationally efficient and robust to distributional shifts and outliers. The classical clustering method, K-means, can be seen as an application of the Lloyd-Max quantization algorithm, in which the distribution being quantized is the empirical distribution of the points to be clustered. This empirical distribution generally differs from the true underlying distribution, especially when the number of points to be clustered is small. This induces a distributional shift, which can also arise in many real-world settings, such as image segmentation, biological data analysis, and sensor networks, due to noise variations, sensor inaccuracies, or environmental changes. Distributional shifts can severely impact the performance of clustering algorithms, leading to degraded cluster assignments and unreliable downstream analysis. The field of clustering has a rich history. One of the most popular algorithms in this field is theK-means (KM) algorithm, introduced by [1], which computes centroids by iteratively updating the conditional mean of the data in the Voronoi regions induced by the centroids. However, standardK-means is sensitive to initialization and, in general, converges only to a local minimum.

We study last-iterate convergence of SGD with greedy step size over smooth quadratics in the interpolation regime, a setting which captures the classical Randomized Kaczmarz algorithm as well as other popular iterative linear system solvers. For these methods, we show that the $t$-th iterate attains an $O(1/t^{3/4})$ convergence rate, addressing a question posed by Attia, Schliserman, Sherman, and Koren, who gave an $O(1/t^{1/2})$ guarantee for this setting. In the proof, we introduce the family of stochastic contraction processes, whose behavior can be described by the evolution of a certain deterministic eigenvalue equation, which we analyze via a careful discrete-to-continuous reduction.

The mean-field Schrödinger bridge (MFSB) problem concerns designing a minimum-effort controller that guides a diffusion process with nonlocal interaction to reach a given distribution from another by a fixed deadline. Unlike the standard Schrödinger bridge, the dynamical constraint for MFSB is the mean-field limit of a population of interacting agents with controls. It serves as a natural model for large-scale multi-agent systems. The MFSB is computationally challenging because the nonlocal interaction makes the problem nonconvex. We propose a generalization of the Hopf-Cole transform for MFSB and, building on it, design a Sinkhorn-type recursive algorithm to solve the associated system of integro-PDEs. Under mild assumptions on the interaction potential, we discuss convergence guarantees for the proposed algorithm. We present numerical examples with repulsive and attractive interactions to illustrate the theoretical contributions.

In this paper, we derive rates of convergence in the high-dimensional central limit theorem for Polyak-Ruppert averaged iterates generated by the asynchronous Q-learning algorithm with a polynomial stepsize $k^{-ω},\, ω\in (1/2, 1]$. Assuming that the sequence of state-action-next-state triples $(s_k, a_k, s_{k+1})_{k \geq 0}$ forms a uniformly geometrically ergodic Markov chain, we establish a rate of order up to $n^{-1/6} \log^{4} (nS A)$ over the class of hyper-rectangles, where $n$ is the number of samples used by the algorithm and $S$ and $A$ denote the numbers of states and actions, respectively. To obtain this result, we prove a high-dimensional central limit theorem for sums of martingale differences, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we present bounds for high-order moments for the algorithm's last iterate.

We study language models as evolving model organisms and ask when autoregressive next-token learning selects for world-tracking representations. For any encoding of latent world states, the Bayes-optimal next-token cross-entropy decomposes into the irreducible conditional entropy plus a Jensen--Shannon excess term. That excess vanishes if and only if the encoding preserves the training ecology's equivalence classes. This yields a precise notion of ecological veridicality for language models and identifies the minimum-complexity zero-excess solution as the quotient partition by training equivalence. We then determine when this fixed-encoding analysis applies to transformer families: frozen dense and frozen Mixture-of-Experts transformers satisfy it, in-context learning does not enlarge the model's separation set, and per-task adaptation breaks the premise. The framework predicts two characteristic failure modes: simplicity pressure preferentially removes low-gain distinctions, and training-optimal models can still incur positive excess on deployment ecologies that refine the training ecology. A conditional dynamic extension shows how inter-model selection and post-training can recover such gap distinctions under explicit heredity, variation, and selection assumptions. Exact finite-ecology checks and controlled microgpt experiments validate the static decomposition, split-merge threshold, off-ecology failure pattern, and two-ecology rescue mechanism in a regime where the relevant quantities are directly observable. The goal is not to model frontier systems at scale, but to use small language models as laboratory organisms for theory about representational selection.