Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Whenever a binary classifier is used to provide decision support, it typically provides both a label prediction and a confidence value. Then, the decision maker is supposed to use the confidence value to calibrate how much to trust the prediction. In this context, it has been often argued that the confidence value should correspond to a well calibrated estimate of the probability that the predicted label matches the ground truth label. However, multiple lines of empirical evidence suggest that decision makers have difficulties at developing a good sense on when to trust a prediction using these confidence values. In this paper, our goal is first to understand why and then investigate how to construct more useful confidence values. We first argue that, for a broad class of utility functions, there exists data distributions for which a rational decision maker is, in general, unlikely to discover the optimal decision policy using the above confidence values--an optimal decision maker would need to sometimes place more (less) trust on predictions with lower (higher) confidence values. However, we then show that, if the confidence values satisfy a natural alignment property with respect to the decision maker's confidence on her own predictions, there always exists an optimal decision policy under which the level of trust the decision maker would need to place on predictions is monotone on the confidence values, facilitating its discoverability. Further, we show that multicalibration with respect to the decision maker's confidence on her own prediction is a sufficient condition for alignment. Experiments on a real AI-assisted decision making scenario where a classifier provides decision support to human decision makers validate our theoretical results and suggest that alignment may lead to better decisions.

We propose DRUM, a scalable and differentiable approach for mining first-order logical rules from knowledge graphs which resolves these problems.

We address the task of temporal knowledge graph (TKG) forecasting by introducing a fully explainable method based on temporal rules. Motivated by recent work proposing a strong baseline using recurrent facts, our approach learns four simple types of rules with a confidence function that considers both recency and frequency. Evaluated on nine datasets, our method matches or surpasses the performance of eight state-of-the-art models and two baselines, while providing fully interpretable predictions.

As drone use has become more widespread, there is a critical need to ensure safety and security. A key element of this is robust and accurate drone detection and localization. While cameras and other optical sensors like LiDAR are commonly used for object detection, their performance degrades under adverse lighting and environmental conditions. Therefore, this has generated interest in finding more reliable alternatives, such as millimeter-wave (mmWave) radar. Recent research on mmWave radar object detection has predominantly focused on 2D detection of road users. Although these systems demonstrate excellent performance for 2D problems, they lack the sensing capability to measure elevation, which is essential for 3D drone detection. To address this gap, we propose CubeDN, a single-stage end-to-end radar object detection network specifically designed for flying drones. CubeDN overcomes challenges such as poor elevation resolution by utilizing a dual radar configuration and a novel deep learning pipeline. It simultaneously detects, localizes, and classifies drones of two sizes, achieving decimeter-level tracking accuracy at closer ranges with overall $95\%$ average precision (AP) and $85\%$ average recall (AR). Furthermore, CubeDN completes data processing and inference at 10Hz, making it highly suitable for practical applications.

In medical imaging, inter-observer variability among radiologists often introduces label uncertainty, particularly in modalities where visual interpretation is subjective. Lung ultrasound (LUS) is a prime example-it frequently presents a mixture of highly ambiguous regions and clearly discernible structures, making consistent annotation challenging even for experienced clinicians. In this work, we introduce a novel approach to both labeling and training AI models using expert-supplied, per-pixel confidence values. Rather than treating annotations as absolute ground truth, we design a data annotation protocol that captures the confidence that radiologists have in each labeled region, modeling the inherent aleatoric uncertainty present in real-world clinical data. We demonstrate that incorporating these confidence values during training leads to improved segmentation performance. More importantly, we show that this enhanced segmentation quality translates into better performance on downstream clinically-critical tasks-specifically, estimating S/F oxygenation ratio values, classifying S/F ratio change, and predicting 30-day patient readmission. While we empirically evaluate many methods for exposing the uncertainty to the learning model, we find that a simple approach that trains a model on binarized labels obtained with a (60%) confidence threshold works well. Importantly, high thresholds work far better than a naive approach of a 50% threshold, indicating that training on very confident pixels is far more effective. Our study systematically investigates the impact of training with varying confidence thresholds, comparing not only segmentation metrics but also downstream clinical outcomes. These results suggest that label confidence is a valuable signal that, when properly leveraged, can significantly enhance the reliability and clinical utility of AI in medical imaging.

LLMs have been shown to be useful for a variety of language tasks, without requiring task-specific fine-tuning. However, these models often struggle with hallucinations and complex reasoning problems due to their autoregressive nature. We propose to address some of these issues, specifically in the area of structured prediction, by combining LLMs with combinatorial inference in an attempt to marry the predictive power of LLMs with the structural consistency provided by inference methods. We perform exhaustive experiments in an effort to understand which prompting strategies can effectively estimate LLM confidence values for use with symbolic inference, and show that, regardless of the prompting strategy, the addition of symbolic inference on top of prompting alone leads to more consistent and accurate predictions. Additionally, we show that calibration and fine-tuning using structured prediction objectives leads to increased performance for challenging tasks, showing that structured learning is still valuable in the era of LLMs.

Datasets pertaining to autonomous vehicles (AVs) hold significant promise for a range of research fields, including artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous driving, and transportation engineering. Nonetheless, these datasets often encounter challenges related to the states of traffic signals, such as missing or inaccurate data. Such issues can compromise the reliability of the datasets and adversely affect the performance of models developed using them. This research introduces a fully automated approach designed to tackle these issues by utilizing available vehicle trajectory data alongside knowledge from the transportation domain to effectively impute and rectify traffic signal information within the Waymo Open Motion Dataset (WOMD). The proposed method is robust and flexible, capable of handling diverse intersection geometries and traffic signal configurations in real-world scenarios. Comprehensive validations have been conducted on the entire WOMD, focusing on over 360,000 relevant scenarios involving traffic signals, out of a total of 530,000 real-world driving scenarios. In the original dataset, 71.7% of traffic signal states are either missing or unknown, all of which were successfully imputed by our proposed method. Furthermore, in the absence of ground-truth signal states, the accuracy of our approach is evaluated based on the rate of red-light violations among vehicle trajectories. Results show that our method reduces the estimated red-light running rate from 15.7% in the original data to 2.9%, thereby demonstrating its efficacy in rectifying data inaccuracies. This paper significantly enhances the quality of AV datasets, contributing to the wider AI and AV research communities and benefiting various downstream applications. The code and improved traffic signal data are open-sourced at https://github.com/michigan-traffic-lab/WOMD-Traffic-Signal-Data-Improvement