AI is asbestos in the walls of our tech society, stuffed there by monopolists run amok. What I do not do is predict the future. No one can predict the future, which is a good thing, since if the future were predictable, that would mean we couldn't change it. Now, not everyone understands the distinction. They think science-fiction writers are oracles. Even some of my colleagues labor under the delusion that we can "see the future". Then there are science-fiction fans who believe that they are the future. A depressing number of those people appear to have become AI bros. These guys can't shut up about the day that their spicy autocomplete machine will wake up and turn us all into paperclips has led many confused journalists and conference organizers to try to get me to comment on the future of AI. That's something I used to strenuously resist doing, because I wasted two years of my life explaining patiently and repeatedly why I thought crypto was stupid, and getting relentlessly bollocked by cryptocurrency cultists who at first insisted that I just didn't understand crypto.

Large Language Models (LLMs),such as ChatGPT, are increasingly used in research, ranging from simple writing assistance to complex data annotation tasks. Recently, some research has suggested that LLMs may even be able to simulate human psychology and can, hence, replace human participants in psychological studies. We caution against this approach. We provide conceptual arguments against the hypothesis that LLMs simulate human psychology. We then present empiric evidence illustrating our arguments by demonstrating that slight changes to wording that correspond to large changes in meaning lead to notable discrepancies between LLMs' and human responses, even for the recent CENTAUR model that was specifically fine-tuned on psychological responses. Additionally, different LLMs show very different responses to novel items, further illustrating their lack of reliability. We conclude that LLMs do not simulate human psychology and recommend that psychological researchers should treat LLMs as useful but fundamentally unreliable tools that need to be validated against human responses for every new application.

Simulators have revolutionized scientific practice across the natural sciences. By generating data that reliably approximate real-world phenomena, they enable scientists to accelerate hypothesis testing and optimize experimental designs [1, 2]. This is perhaps best illustrated by AlphaFold, a Nobel-prize winning simulator in chemistry that predicts protein structures from amino acid sequences, enabling rapid prototyping of molecular interactions, drug targets, and protein functions [1]. In the behavioral sciences, a reliable participant simulator--a system capable of producing human-like behavior across cognitive tasks--would represent a similarly transformative advance [3]. Recently, Binz et al. introduced Centaur, a large language model (LLM) fine-tuned on human data from 160 experiments, proposing its use not only as a model of cognition but also as a participant simulator for "in silico prototyping of experimental studies" [4], e.g., to advance automated cognitive science [3, 5]. Although Centaur demonstrates strong predictive accuracy, its generative behavior-- a critical criterion for a participant simulator--systematically diverges from human data. This suggests that, while Centaur is a significant step toward predicting human behavior, it does not yet meet the standards of a reliable participant simulator or an accurate model of cognition. A core criterion for any behavioral simulator is its ability to generate behavioral patterns observed in experiments.

Compared with conventional psychological models, which use simple math equations, Centaur did a far better job of predicting behavior. Accurate predictions of how humans respond in psychology experiments are valuable in and of themselves: For example, scientists could use Centaur to pilot their experiments on a computer before recruiting, and paying, human participants. In their paper, however, the researchers propose that Centaur could be more than just a prediction machine. By interrogating the mechanisms that allow Centaur to effectively replicate human behavior, they argue, scientists could develop new theories about the inner workings of the mind. But some psychologists doubt whether Centaur can tell us much about the mind at all.

We introduce automated scientific minimization of regret (ASMR) -- a framework for automated computational cognitive science. Building on the principles of scientific regret minimization, ASMR leverages Centaur -- a recently proposed foundation model of human cognition -- to identify gaps in an interpretable cognitive model. These gaps are then addressed through automated revisions generated by a language-based reasoning model. We demonstrate the utility of this approach in a multi-attribute decision-making task, showing that ASMR discovers cognitive models that predict human behavior at noise ceiling while retaining interpretability. Taken together, our results highlight the potential of ASMR to automate core components of the cognitive modeling pipeline.

How can we rely on an end-to-end autonomous vehicle's complex decision-making system during deployment? One common solution is to have a ``fallback layer'' that checks the planned trajectory for rule violations and replaces it with a pre-defined safe action if necessary. Another approach involves adjusting the planner's decisions to minimize a pre-defined ``cost function'' using additional system predictions such as road layouts and detected obstacles. However, these pre-programmed rules or cost functions cannot learn and improve with new training data, often resulting in overly conservative behaviors. In this work, we propose Centaur (Cluster Entropy for Test-time trAining using Uncertainty) which updates a planner's behavior via test-time training, without relying on hand-engineered rules or cost functions. Instead, we measure and minimize the uncertainty in the planner's decisions. For this, we develop a novel uncertainty measure, called Cluster Entropy, which is simple, interpretable, and compatible with state-of-the-art planning algorithms. Using data collected at prior test-time time-steps, we perform an update to the model's parameters using a gradient that minimizes the Cluster Entropy. With only this sole gradient update prior to inference, Centaur exhibits significant improvements, ranking first on the navtest leaderboard with notable gains in safety-critical metrics such as time to collision. To provide detailed insights on a per-scenario basis, we also introduce navsafe, a challenging new benchmark, which highlights previously undiscovered failure modes of driving models.

As pre-trained models, like Transformers, are increasingly deployed on cloud platforms for inference services, the privacy concerns surrounding model parameters and inference data are becoming more acute. Current Privacy-Preserving Transformer Inference (PPTI) frameworks struggle with the "impossible trinity" of privacy, efficiency, and performance. For instance, Secure Multi-Party Computation (SMPC)-based solutions offer strong privacy guarantees but come with significant inference overhead and performance trade-offs. On the other hand, PPTI frameworks that use random permutations achieve inference efficiency close to that of plaintext and maintain accurate results but require exposing some model parameters and intermediate results, thereby risking substantial privacy breaches. Addressing this "impossible trinity" with a single technique proves challenging. To overcome this challenge, we propose Centaur, a novel hybrid PPTI framework. Unlike existing methods, Centaur protects model parameters with random permutations and inference data with SMPC, leveraging the structure of Transformer models. By designing a series of efficient privacy-preserving algorithms, Centaur leverages the strengths of both techniques to achieve a better balance between privacy, efficiency, and performance in PPTI. We comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness of Centaur on various types of Transformer models and datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that the privacy protection capabilities offered by Centaur can withstand various existing model inversion attack methods. In terms of performance and efficiency, Centaur not only maintains the same performance as plaintext inference but also improves inference speed by $5.0-30.4$ times.

Establishing a unified theory of cognition has been a major goal of psychology. While there have been previous attempts to instantiate such theories by building computational models, we currently do not have one model that captures the human mind in its entirety. Here we introduce Centaur, a computational model that can predict and simulate human behavior in any experiment expressible in natural language. We derived Centaur by finetuning a state-of-the-art language model on a novel, large-scale data set called Psych-101. Psych-101 reaches an unprecedented scale, covering trial-by-trial data from over 60,000 participants performing over 10,000,000 choices in 160 experiments. Centaur not only captures the behavior of held-out participants better than existing cognitive models, but also generalizes to new cover stories, structural task modifications, and entirely new domains. Furthermore, we find that the model's internal representations become more aligned with human neural activity after finetuning. Taken together, Centaur is the first real candidate for a unified model of human cognition. We anticipate that it will have a disruptive impact on the cognitive sciences, challenging the existing paradigm for developing computational models.

Advanced analytics science methods have enabled combining the power of artificial and human intelligence, creating \textit{centaurs} that allow superior decision-making. Centaurs are hybrid human-algorithm AI models that combine both formal analytics and human intuition in a symbiotic manner within their learning and reasoning process. We argue that the future of AI development and use in many domains needs to focus on centaurs as opposed to traditional AI approaches. This paradigm shift from traditional AI methods to centaur-based AI methods raises some fundamental questions: How are centaurs different from traditional human-in-the-loop methods? What are the most effective methods for creating centaurs? When should centaurs be used, and when should the lead be given to traditional AI models? Doesn't the incorporation of human intuition -- which at times can be misleading -- in centaurs' decision-making process degrade its performance compared to traditional AI methods? This work aims to address these fundamental questions, focusing on recent advancements in generative AI, and especially in Large Language Models (LLMs), as a main case study to illustrate centaurs' critical essentiality to future AI endeavors.

Repeated parameter sharing in federated learning causes significant information leakage about private data, thus defeating its main purpose: data privacy. Mitigating the risk of this information leakage, using state of the art differentially private algorithms, also does not come for free. Randomized mechanisms can prevent convergence of models on learning even the useful representation functions, especially if there is more disagreement between local models on the classification functions (due to data heterogeneity). In this paper, we consider a representation federated learning objective that encourages various parties to collaboratively refine the consensus part of the model, with differential privacy guarantees, while separately allowing sufficient freedom for local personalization (without releasing it). We prove that in the linear representation setting, while the objective is non-convex, our proposed new algorithm \DPFEDREP\ converges to a ball centered around the \emph{global optimal} solution at a linear rate, and the radius of the ball is proportional to the reciprocal of the privacy budget. With this novel utility analysis, we improve the SOTA utility-privacy trade-off for this problem by a factor of $\sqrt{d}$, where $d$ is the input dimension. We empirically evaluate our method with the image classification task on CIFAR10, CIFAR100, and EMNIST, and observe a significant performance improvement over the prior work under the same small privacy budget. The code can be found in this link: https://github.com/shenzebang/CENTAUR-Privacy-Federated-Representation-Learning.