In single-cell perturbation prediction, a central task is to forecast the effects of perturbing a gene unseen in the training data. The efficacy of such predictions depends on two factors: (1) the similarity of the target gene to those covered in the training data, which informs model (epistemic) uncertainty, and (2) the quality of the corresponding training data, which reflects data (aleatoric) uncertainty. Both factors are critical for determining the reliability of a prediction, particularly as gene perturbation is an inherently stochastic biochemical process. In this paper, we propose PRESCRIBE (PREdicting Single-Cell Response wIth Bayesian Estimation), a multivariate deep evidential regression framework designed to measure both sources of uncertainty jointly. Our analysis demonstrates that PRESCRIBE effectively estimates a confidence score for each prediction, which strongly correlates with its empirical accuracy. This capability enables the filtering of untrustworthy results, and in our experiments, it achieves steady accuracy improvements of over 3% compared to comparable baselines.

We consider the problem of estimating a causal effect in a multi-domain setting. The causal effect of interest is confounded by an unobserved confounder and can change between the different domains. We assume that we have access to a proxy of the hidden confounder and that all variables are discrete or categorical. We propose methodology to estimate the causal effect in the target domain, where we assume to observe only the proxy variable. Under these conditions, we prove identifiability (even when treatment and response variables are continuous). We introduce two estimation techniques, prove consistency, and derive confidence intervals. The theoretical results are supported by simulation studies and a real-world example studying the causal effect of website rankings on consumer choices.

Stochastic gradient optimization is the dominant learning paradigm for a variety of scenarios, from classical supervised learning to modern self-supervised learning. We consider stochastic gradient algorithms for learning problems whose objectives rely on unknown nuisance parameters, and establish non-asymptotic convergence guarantees. Our results show that, while the presence of a nuisance can alter the optimum and upset the optimization trajectory, the classical stochastic gradient algorithm may still converge under appropriate conditions, such as Neyman orthogonality. Moreover, even when Neyman orthogonality is not satisfied, we show that an algorithm variant with approximately orthogonalized updates (with an approximately orthogonalized gradient oracle) may achieve similar convergence rates. Examples from orthogonal statistical learning/double machine learning and causal inference are discussed.

Diffusion-based generative models have reformed generative AI, and have enabled new capabilities in the science domain, for example, generating 3D structures of molecules. Due to the intrinsic problem structure of certain tasks, there is often a symmetry in the system, which identifies objects that can be converted by a group action as equivalent, hence the target distribution is essentially defined on the quotient space with respect to the group. In this work, we establish a formal framework for diffusion modeling on a general quotient space, and apply it to molecular structure generation which follows the special Euclidean group $\text{SE}(3)$ symmetry. The framework reduces the necessity of learning the component corresponding to the group action, hence simplifies learning difficulty over conventional group-equivariant diffusion models, and the sampler guarantees recovering the target distribution, while heuristic alignment strategies lack proper samplers. The arguments are empirically validated on structure generation for small molecules and proteins, indicating that the principled quotient-space diffusion model provides a new framework that outperforms previous symmetry treatments.

We also study the more general case of an additional entropy regularizer.

We consider the penalized distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problem with a closed, convex uncertainty set, a setting that encompasses learning using f -DRO and spectral/ L-risk minimization.

We identify a natural and necessary condition called the "Optimal