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Department of Physics, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287, USA (Dated: February 26, 2024) Recent research on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) raised concern about its potential collapse through a tipping point due to the climate-change caused increase in the freshwater input into the North Atlantic. The predicted time window of collapse is centered about the middle of the century and the earliest possible start is approximately two years from now. More generally, anticipating a tipping point at which the system transitions from one stable steady state to another is relevant to a broad range of fields. We develop a machine-learning approach to predicting tipping in noisy dynamical systems with a time-varying parameter and test it on a number of systems including the AMOC, ecological networks, an electrical power system, and a climate model. For the AMOC, our prediction based on simulated fingerprint data and real data of the sea surface temperature places the time window of a potential collapse between the years 2040 and 2065.

Machine Learning has become a pervasive tool in climate science applications. However, current models fail to address nonstationarity induced by anthropogenic alterations in greenhouse emissions and do not routinely quantify the uncertainty of proposed projections. In this paper, we model the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which is of major importance to climate in Europe and the US East Coast by transporting warm water to these regions, and has the potential for abrupt collapse. We can generate arbitrarily extreme climate scenarios through arbitrary time scales which we then predict using neural networks. Our analysis shows that the AMOC is predictable using neural networks under a diverse set of climate scenarios. Further experiments reveal that MLPs and Deep Ensembles can learn the physics of the AMOC instead of imitating its progression through autocorrelation. With quantified uncertainty, an intriguing pattern of "spikes" before critical points of collapse in the AMOC casts doubt on previous analyses that predicted an AMOC collapse within this century. Our results show that Bayesian Neural Networks perform poorly compared to more dense architectures and care should be taken when applying neural networks to nonstationary scenarios such as climate projections. Further, our results highlight that big NN models might have difficulty in modeling global Earth System dynamics accurately and be successfully applied in nonstationary climate scenarios due to the physics being challenging for neural networks to capture.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the global climate, known to be a tipping element, as it could collapse under global warming. The main objective of this study is to compute the probability that the AMOC collapses within a specified time window, using a rare-event algorithm called Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS). However, the efficiency and accuracy of TAMS depend on the choice of the score function. Although the definition of the optimal score function, called ``committor function" is known, it is impossible in general to compute it a priori. Here, we combine TAMS with a Next-Generation Reservoir Computing technique that estimates the committor function from the data generated by the rare-event algorithm. We test this technique in a stochastic box model of the AMOC for which two types of transition exist, the so-called F(ast)-transitions and S(low)-transitions. Results for the F-transtions compare favorably with those in the literature where a physically-informed score function was used. We show that coupling a rare-event algorithm with machine learning allows for a correct estimation of transition probabilities, transition times, and even transition paths for a wide range of model parameters. We then extend these results to the more difficult problem of S-transitions in the same model. In both cases of F- and S-transitions, we also show how the Next-Generation Reservoir Computing technique can be interpreted to retrieve an analytical estimate of the committor function.

That may have been science fiction but scientists say the terrifying prophecy could soon become a reality. That's because new research warns that the Atlantic Ocean current which drives the Gulf Stream could collapse at'any time' from 2025 thanks to climate change. Known formally as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the current is the driving force which brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico up to the UK and is responsible for mild winters in Western Europe. If it collapsed, however, the impact would be devastating. Europe would be plunged into a deep freeze, while most of Africa, the Caribbean, and South American countries such as Colombia, Peru and Bolivia would experience rocketing temperatures.

In recent years, there has been an increase in using deep learning for climate and weather modeling. Though results have been impressive, explainability and interpretability of deep learning models are still a challenge. A third wave of Artificial Intelligence (AI), which includes logic and reasoning, has been described as a way to address these issues. Neuro-symbolic AI is a key component of this integration of logic and reasoning with deep learning. In this work we propose a neuro-symbolic approach called Neuro-Symbolic Question-Answer Program Translator, or NS-QAPT, to address explainability and interpretability for deep learning climate simulation, applied to climate tipping point discovery. The NS-QAPT method includes a bidirectional encoder-decoder architecture that translates between domain-specific questions and executable programs used to direct the climate simulation, acting as a bridge between climate scientists and deep learning models. We show early compelling results of this translation method and introduce a domain-specific language and associated executable programs for a commonly known tipping point, the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

In this paper, we propose a novel language model guided captioning approach, LAMOC, for knowledge-based visual question answering (VQA). Our approach employs the generated captions by a captioning model as the context of an answer prediction model, which is a Pre-trained Language model (PLM). As the major contribution, we leverage the guidance and feedback of the prediction model to improve the capability of the captioning model. In this way, the captioning model can become aware of the task goal and information need from the PLM. To develop our approach, we design two specific training stages, where the first stage adapts the captioning model to the prediction model (selecting more suitable caption propositions for training) and the second stage tunes the captioning model according to the task goal (learning from feedback of the PLM). Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on the knowledge-based VQA task. Specifically, on the challenging A-OKVQA dataset, LAMOC outperforms several competitive zero-shot methods and even achieves comparable results to a fine-tuned VLP model. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/RUCAIBox/LAMOC.

We propose a new Tipping Point Generative Adversarial Network (TIP-GAN) for better characterizing potential climate tipping points in Earth system models. We describe an adversarial game to explore the parameter space of these models, detect upcoming tipping points, and discover the drivers of tipping points. In this setup, a set of generators learn to construct model configurations that will invoke a climate tipping point. The discriminator learns to identify which generators are generating each model configuration and whether a given configuration will lead to a tipping point. The discriminator is trained using an oracle (a surrogate climate model) to test if a generated model configuration leads to a tipping point or not. We demonstrate the application of this GAN to invoke the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We share experimental results of modifying the loss functions and the number of generators to exploit the area of uncertainty in model state space near a climate tipping point. In addition, we show that our trained discriminator can predict AMOC collapse with a high degree of accuracy without the use of the oracle. This approach could generalize to other tipping points, and could augment climate modeling research by directing users interested in studying tipping points to parameter sets likely to induce said tipping points in their computationally intensive climate models.

We propose a hybrid Artificial Intelligence (AI) climate modeling approach that enables climate modelers in scientific discovery using a climate-targeted simulation methodology based on a novel combination of deep neural networks and mathematical methods for modeling dynamical systems. The simulations are grounded by a neuro-symbolic language that both enables question answering of what is learned by the AI methods and provides a means of explainability. We describe how this methodology can be applied to the discovery of climate tipping points and, in particular, the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). We show how this methodology is able to predict AMOC collapse with a high degree of accuracy using a surrogate climate model for ocean interaction. We also show preliminary results of neuro-symbolic method performance when translating between natural language questions and symbolically learned representations. Our AI methodology shows promising early results, potentially enabling faster climate tipping point related research that would otherwise be computationally infeasible.

Recent improvements in the predictive quality of natural language processing systems are often dependent on a substantial increase in the number of model parameters. This has led to various attempts of compressing such models, but existing methods have not considered the differences in the predictive power of various model components or in the generalizability of the compressed models. To understand the connection between model compression and out-of-distribution generalization, we define the task of compressing language representation models such that they perform best in a domain adaptation setting. We choose to address this problem from a causal perspective, attempting to estimate the \textit{average treatment effect} (ATE) of a model component, such as a single layer, on the model's predictions. Our proposed ATE-guided Model Compression scheme (AMoC), generates many model candidates, differing by the model components that were removed. Then, we select the best candidate through a stepwise regression model that utilizes the ATE to predict the expected performance on the target domain. AMoC outperforms strong baselines on 46 of 60 domain pairs across two text classification tasks, with an average improvement of more than 3\% in F1 above the strongest baseline.