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Collaborating Authors

 Zhou, Zhengyuan


Joint Value Estimation and Bidding in Repeated First-Price Auctions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study regret minimization in repeated first-price auctions (FPAs), where a bidder observes only the realized outcome after each auction -- win or loss. This setup reflects practical scenarios in online display advertising where the actual value of an impression depends on the difference between two potential outcomes, such as clicks or conversion rates, when the auction is won versus lost. We analyze three outcome models: (1) adversarial outcomes without features, (2) linear potential outcomes with features, and (3) linear treatment effects in features. For each setting, we propose algorithms that jointly estimate private values and optimize bidding strategies, achieving near-optimal regret bounds. Notably, our framework enjoys a unique feature that the treatments are also actively chosen, and hence eliminates the need for the overlap condition commonly required in causal inference.


Learning an Optimal Assortment Policy under Observational Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the fundamental problem of offline assortment optimization under the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, where sellers must determine the optimal subset of the products to offer based solely on historical customer choice data. While most existing approaches to learning-based assortment optimization focus on the online learning of the optimal assortment through repeated interactions with customers, such exploration can be costly or even impractical in many real-world settings. In this paper, we consider the offline learning paradigm and investigate the minimal data requirements for efficient offline assortment optimization. To this end, we introduce Pessimistic Rank-Breaking (PRB), an algorithm that combines rank-breaking with pessimistic estimation. We prove that PRB is nearly minimax optimal by establishing the tight suboptimality upper bound and a nearly matching lower bound. This further shows that "optimal item coverage" - where each item in the optimal assortment appears sufficiently often in the historical data - is both sufficient and necessary for efficient offline learning. This significantly relaxes the previous requirement of observing the complete optimal assortment in the data. Our results provide fundamental insights into the data requirements for offline assortment optimization under the MNL model.


Concurrent Learning with Aggregated States via Randomized Least Squares Value Iteration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Designing learning agents that explore efficiently in a complex environment has been widely recognized as a fundamental challenge in reinforcement learning. While a number of works have demonstrated the effectiveness of techniques based on randomized value functions on a single agent, it remains unclear, from a theoretical point of view, whether injecting randomization can help a society of agents {\it concurently} explore an environment. The theoretical results %that we established in this work tender an affirmative answer to this question. We adapt the concurrent learning framework to \textit{randomized least-squares value iteration} (RLSVI) with \textit{aggregated state representation}. We demonstrate polynomial worst-case regret bounds in both finite- and infinite-horizon environments. In both setups the per-agent regret decreases at an optimal rate of $\Theta\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt{N}}\right)$, highlighting the advantage of concurent learning. Our algorithm exhibits significantly lower space complexity compared to \cite{russo2019worst} and \cite{agrawal2021improved}. We reduce the space complexity by a factor of $K$ while incurring only a $\sqrt{K}$ increase in the worst-case regret bound, compared to \citep{agrawal2021improved,russo2019worst}. Additionally, we conduct numerical experiments to demonstrate our theoretical findings.


Learning to Bid in Non-Stationary Repeated First-Price Auctions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

First-price auctions have recently gained significant traction in digital advertising markets, exemplified by Google's transition from second-price to first-price auctions. Unlike in second-price auctions, where bidding one's private valuation is a dominant strategy, determining an optimal bidding strategy in first-price auctions is more complex. From a learning perspective, the learner (a specific bidder) can interact with the environment (other bidders) sequentially to infer their behaviors. Existing research often assumes specific environmental conditions and benchmarks performance against the best fixed policy (static benchmark). While this approach ensures strong learning guarantees, the static benchmark can deviate significantly from the optimal strategy in environments with even mild non-stationarity. To address such scenarios, a dynamic benchmark, which represents the sum of the best possible rewards at each time step, offers a more suitable objective. However, achieving no-regret learning with respect to the dynamic benchmark requires additional constraints. By inspecting reward functions in online first-price auctions, we introduce two metrics to quantify the regularity of the bidding sequence, which serve as measures of non-stationarity. We provide a minimax-optimal characterization of the dynamic regret when either of these metrics is sub-linear in the time horizon.


Nonconvex Stochastic Optimization under Heavy-Tailed Noises: Optimal Convergence without Gradient Clipping

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recently, the study of heavy-tailed noises in first-order nonconvex stochastic optimization has gotten a lot of attention since it was recognized as a more realistic condition as suggested by many empirical observations. Specifically, the stochastic noise (the difference between the stochastic and true gradient) is considered only to have a finite $\mathfrak{p}$-th moment where $\mathfrak{p}\in\left(1,2\right]$ instead of assuming it always satisfies the classical finite variance assumption. To deal with this more challenging setting, people have proposed different algorithms and proved them to converge at an optimal $\mathcal{O}(T^{\frac{1-\mathfrak{p}}{3\mathfrak{p}-2}})$ rate for smooth objectives after $T$ iterations. Notably, all these new-designed algorithms are based on the same technique - gradient clipping. Naturally, one may want to know whether the clipping method is a necessary ingredient and the only way to guarantee convergence under heavy-tailed noises. In this work, by revisiting the existing Batched Normalized Stochastic Gradient Descent with Momentum (Batched NSGDM) algorithm, we provide the first convergence result under heavy-tailed noises but without gradient clipping. Concretely, we prove that Batched NSGDM can achieve the optimal $\mathcal{O}(T^{\frac{1-\mathfrak{p}}{3\mathfrak{p}-2}})$ rate even under the relaxed smooth condition. More interestingly, we also establish the first $\mathcal{O}(T^{\frac{1-\mathfrak{p}}{2\mathfrak{p}}})$ convergence rate in the case where the tail index $\mathfrak{p}$ is unknown in advance, which is arguably the common scenario in practice.


Distributionally Robust Policy Learning under Concept Drifts

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Distributionally robust policy learning aims to find a policy that performs well under the worst-case distributional shift, and yet most existing methods for robust policy learning consider the worst-case joint distribution of the covariate and the outcome. The joint-modeling strategy can be unnecessarily conservative when we have more information on the source of distributional shifts. This paper studiesa more nuanced problem -- robust policy learning under the concept drift, when only the conditional relationship between the outcome and the covariate changes. To this end, we first provide a doubly-robust estimator for evaluating the worst-case average reward of a given policy under a set of perturbed conditional distributions. We show that the policy value estimator enjoys asymptotic normality even if the nuisance parameters are estimated with a slower-than-root-$n$ rate. We then propose a learning algorithm that outputs the policy maximizing the estimated policy value within a given policy class $\Pi$, and show that the sub-optimality gap of the proposed algorithm is of the order $\kappa(\Pi)n^{-1/2}$, with $\kappa(\Pi)$ is the entropy integral of $\Pi$ under the Hamming distance and $n$ is the sample size. A matching lower bound is provided to show the optimality of the rate. The proposed methods are implemented and evaluated in numerical studies, demonstrating substantial improvement compared with existing benchmarks.


Statistical Learning of Distributionally Robust Stochastic Control in Continuous State Spaces

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We explore the control of stochastic systems with potentially continuous state and action spaces, characterized by the state dynamics $X_{t+1} = f(X_t, A_t, W_t)$. Here, $X$, $A$, and $W$ represent the state, action, and exogenous random noise processes, respectively, with $f$ denoting a known function that describes state transitions. Traditionally, the noise process $\{W_t, t \geq 0\}$ is assumed to be independent and identically distributed, with a distribution that is either fully known or can be consistently estimated. However, the occurrence of distributional shifts, typical in engineering settings, necessitates the consideration of the robustness of the policy. This paper introduces a distributionally robust stochastic control paradigm that accommodates possibly adaptive adversarial perturbation to the noise distribution within a prescribed ambiguity set. We examine two adversary models: current-action-aware and current-action-unaware, leading to different dynamic programming equations. Furthermore, we characterize the optimal finite sample minimax rates for achieving uniform learning of the robust value function across continuum states under both adversary types, considering ambiguity sets defined by $f_k$-divergence and Wasserstein distance. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our framework across various real-world settings.


Adaptively Learning to Select-Rank in Online Platforms

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Ranking algorithms are fundamental to various online platforms across e-commerce sites to content streaming services. Our research addresses the challenge of adaptively ranking items from a candidate pool for heterogeneous users, a key component in personalizing user experience. We develop a user response model that considers diverse user preferences and the varying effects of item positions, aiming to optimize overall user satisfaction with the ranked list. We frame this problem within a contextual bandits framework, with each ranked list as an action. Our approach incorporates an upper confidence bound to adjust predicted user satisfaction scores and selects the ranking action that maximizes these adjusted scores, efficiently solved via maximum weight imperfect matching. We demonstrate that our algorithm achieves a cumulative regret bound of $O(d\sqrt{NKT})$ for ranking $K$ out of $N$ items in a $d$-dimensional context space over $T$ rounds, under the assumption that user responses follow a generalized linear model. This regret alleviates dependence on the ambient action space, whose cardinality grows exponentially with $N$ and $K$ (thus rendering direct application of existing adaptive learning algorithms -- such as UCB or Thompson sampling -- infeasible). Experiments conducted on both simulated and real-world datasets demonstrate our algorithm outperforms the baseline.


Simulation-Based Benchmarking of Reinforcement Learning Agents for Personalized Retail Promotions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The development of open benchmarking platforms could greatly accelerate the adoption of AI agents in retail. This paper presents comprehensive simulations of customer shopping behaviors for the purpose of benchmarking reinforcement learning (RL) agents that optimize coupon targeting. The difficulty of this learning problem is largely driven by the sparsity of customer purchase events. We trained agents using offline batch data comprising summarized customer purchase histories to help mitigate this effect. Our experiments revealed that contextual bandit and deep RL methods that are less prone to over-fitting the sparse reward distributions significantly outperform static policies. This study offers a practical framework for simulating AI agents that optimize the entire retail customer journey. It aims to inspire the further development of simulation tools for retail AI systems.


Doubly Optimal No-Regret Online Learning in Strongly Monotone Games with Bandit Feedback

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider online no-regret learning in unknown games with bandit feedback, where each player can only observe its reward at each time -- determined by all players' current joint action -- rather than its gradient. We focus on the class of \textit{smooth and strongly monotone} games and study optimal no-regret learning therein. Leveraging self-concordant barrier functions, we first construct a new bandit learning algorithm and show that it achieves the single-agent optimal regret of $\tilde{\Theta}(n\sqrt{T})$ under smooth and strongly concave reward functions ($n \geq 1$ is the problem dimension). We then show that if each player applies this no-regret learning algorithm in strongly monotone games, the joint action converges in the \textit{last iterate} to the unique Nash equilibrium at a rate of $\tilde{\Theta}(nT^{-1/2})$. Prior to our work, the best-known convergence rate in the same class of games is $\tilde{O}(n^{2/3}T^{-1/3})$ (achieved by a different algorithm), thus leaving open the problem of optimal no-regret learning algorithms (since the known lower bound is $\Omega(nT^{-1/2})$). Our results thus settle this open problem and contribute to the broad landscape of bandit game-theoretical learning by identifying the first doubly optimal bandit learning algorithm, in that it achieves (up to log factors) both optimal regret in the single-agent learning and optimal last-iterate convergence rate in the multi-agent learning. We also present preliminary numerical results on several application problems to demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithm in terms of iteration count.