In this paper, we explore the nature of sudden breakthroughs in language model performance at scale, which stands in contrast to smooth improvements governed by scaling laws. While advocates of "emergence" view abrupt performance gains as capabilities unlocking at specific scales, others have suggested that they are produced by thresholding effects and alleviated by continuous metrics. We propose that breakthroughs are instead driven by continuous changes in the probability distribution of training outcomes, particularly when performance is bimodally distributed across random seeds. In synthetic length generalization tasks, we show that different random seeds can produce either highly linear or emergent scaling trends. We reveal that sharp breakthroughs in metrics are produced by underlying continuous changes in their distribution across seeds. Furthermore, we provide a case study of inverse scaling and show that even as the probability of a successful run declines, the average performance of a successful run continues to increase monotonically. We validate our distributional scaling framework on realistic settings by measuring MMLU performance in LLM populations. These insights emphasize the role of random variation in the effect of scale on LLM capabilities.

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) present significant risks and opportunities, requiring improved governance to mitigate societal harms and promote equitable benefits. Current incentive structures and regulatory delays may hinder responsible AI development and deployment, particularly in light of the transformative potential of large language models (LLMs). To address these challenges, we propose developing the following three contributions: (1) a large multimodal text and economic-timeseries foundation model that integrates economic and natural language policy data for enhanced forecasting and decision-making, (2) algorithmic mechanisms for eliciting diverse and representative perspectives, enabling the creation of data-driven public policy recommendations, and (3) an AI-driven web platform for supporting transparent, inclusive, and data-driven policymaking.

Training language models becomes increasingly expensive with scale, prompting numerous attempts to improve optimization efficiency. Despite these efforts, the Adam optimizer remains the most widely used, due to a prevailing view that it is the most effective approach. We aim to compare several optimization algorithms, including SGD, Adafactor, Adam, and Lion, in the context of autoregressive language modeling across a range of model sizes, hyperparameters, and architecture variants. Our findings indicate that, except for SGD, these algorithms all perform comparably both in their optimal performance and also in terms of how they fare across a wide range of hyperparameter choices. Our results suggest to practitioners that the choice of optimizer can be guided by practical considerations like memory constraints and ease of implementation, as no single algorithm emerged as a clear winner in terms of performance or stability to hyperparameter misspecification. Given our findings, we further dissect these approaches, examining two simplified versions of Adam: a) signed momentum (Signum) which we see recovers both the performance and hyperparameter stability of Adam and b) Adalayer, a layerwise variant of Adam which we introduce to study Adam's preconditioning. Examining Adalayer leads us to the conclusion that the largest impact of Adam's preconditioning is restricted to the last layer and LayerNorm parameters, and, perhaps surprisingly, the remaining layers can be trained with SGD.

Understanding the internal representations learned by neural networks is a cornerstone challenge in the science of machine learning. While there have been significant recent strides in some cases towards understanding how neural networks implement specific target functions, this paper explores a complementary question -- why do networks arrive at particular computational strategies? Our inquiry focuses on the algebraic learning tasks of modular addition, sparse parities, and finite group operations. Our primary theoretical findings analytically characterize the features learned by stylized neural networks for these algebraic tasks. Notably, our main technique demonstrates how the principle of margin maximization alone can be used to fully specify the features learned by the network. Specifically, we prove that the trained networks utilize Fourier features to perform modular addition and employ features corresponding to irreducible group-theoretic representations to perform compositions in general groups, aligning closely with the empirical observations of Nanda et al. and Chughtai et al. More generally, we hope our techniques can help to foster a deeper understanding of why neural networks adopt specific computational strategies.

The success of SGD in deep learning has been ascribed by prior works to the implicit bias induced by high learning rate or small batch size ("SGD noise"). While prior works that focused on offline learning (i.e., multiple-epoch training), we study the impact of SGD noise on online (i.e., single epoch) learning. Through an extensive empirical analysis of image and language data, we demonstrate that large learning rate and small batch size do not confer any implicit bias advantages in online learning. In contrast to offline learning, the benefits of SGD noise in online learning are strictly computational, facilitating larger or more cost-effective gradient steps. Our work suggests that SGD in the online regime can be construed as taking noisy steps along the "golden path" of the noiseless gradient flow algorithm. We provide evidence to support this hypothesis by conducting experiments that reduce SGD noise during training and by measuring the pointwise functional distance between models trained with varying SGD noise levels, but at equivalent loss values. Our findings challenge the prevailing understanding of SGD and offer novel insights into its role in online learning.

Reinforcement learning on high-dimensional and complex problems relies on abstraction for improved efficiency and generalization. In this paper, we study abstraction in the continuous-control setting, and extend the definition of MDP homomorphisms to the setting of continuous state and action spaces. We derive a policy gradient theorem on the abstract MDP for both stochastic and deterministic policies. Our policy gradient results allow for leveraging approximate symmetries of the environment for policy optimization. Based on these theorems, we propose a family of actor-critic algorithms that are able to learn the policy and the MDP homomorphism map simultaneously, using the lax bisimulation metric. Finally, we introduce a series of environments with continuous symmetries to further demonstrate the ability of our algorithm for action abstraction in the presence of such symmetries. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on our environments, as well as on challenging visual control tasks from the DeepMind Control Suite. Our method's ability to utilize MDP homomorphisms for representation learning leads to improved performance, and the visualizations of the latent space clearly demonstrate the structure of the learned abstraction.

The ability to learn continually is essential in a complex and changing world. In this paper, we characterize the behavior of canonical value-based deep reinforcement learning (RL) approaches under varying degrees of non-stationarity. In particular, we demonstrate that deep RL agents lose their ability to learn good policies when they cycle through a sequence of Atari 2600 games. This phenomenon is alluded to in prior work under various guises -- e.g., loss of plasticity, implicit under-parameterization, primacy bias, and capacity loss. We investigate this phenomenon closely at scale and analyze how the weights, gradients, and activations change over time in several experiments with varying dimensions (e.g., similarity between games, number of games, number of frames per game), with some experiments spanning 50 days and 2 billion environment interactions. Our analysis shows that the activation footprint of the network becomes sparser, contributing to the diminishing gradients. We investigate a remarkably simple mitigation strategy -- Concatenated ReLUs (CReLUs) activation function -- and demonstrate its effectiveness in facilitating continual learning in a changing environment.

Abstraction has been widely studied as a way to improve the efficiency and generalization of reinforcement learning algorithms. In this paper, we study abstraction in the continuous-control setting. We extend the definition of MDP homomorphisms to encompass continuous actions in continuous state spaces. We derive a policy gradient theorem on the abstract MDP, which allows us to leverage approximate symmetries of the environment for policy optimization. Based on this theorem, we propose an actor-critic algorithm that is able to learn the policy and the MDP homomorphism map simultaneously, using the lax bisimulation metric. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on benchmark tasks in the DeepMind Control Suite. Our method's ability to utilize MDP homomorphisms for representation learning leads to improved performance when learning from pixel observations.