We introduce squared families, which are families of probability densities obtained by squaring a linear transformation of a statistic. Squared families are singular, however their singularity can easily be handled so that they form regular models. After handling the singularity, squared families possess many convenient properties. Their Fisher information is a conformal transformation of the Hessian metric induced from a Bregman generator. The Bregman generator is the normalising constant, and yields a statistical divergence on the family. The normalising constant admits a helpful parameter-integral factorisation, meaning that only one parameter-independent integral needs to be computed for all normalising constants in the family, unlike in exponential families. Finally, the squared family kernel is the only integral that needs to be computed for the Fisher information, statistical divergence and normalising constant. We then describe how squared families are special in the broader class of $g$-families, which are obtained by applying a sufficiently regular function $g$ to a linear transformation of a statistic. After removing special singularities, positively homogeneous families and exponential families are the only $g$-families for which the Fisher information is a conformal transformation of the Hessian metric, where the generator depends on the parameter only through the normalising constant. Even-order monomial families also admit parameter-integral factorisations, unlike exponential families. We study parameter estimation and density estimation in squared families, in the well-specified and misspecified settings. We use a universal approximation property to show that squared families can learn sufficiently well-behaved target densities at a rate of $\mathcal{O}(N^{-1/2})+C n^{-1/4}$, where $N$ is the number of datapoints, $n$ is the number of parameters, and $C$ is some constant.

Adversarial robustness of machine learning models is critical to ensuring reliable performance under data perturbations. Recent progress has been on point estimators, and this paper considers distributional predictors. First, using the link between exponential families and Bregman divergences, we formulate an adversarial Bregman divergence loss as an adversarial negative log-likelihood. Using the geometric properties of Bregman divergences, we compute the adversarial perturbation for such models in closed-form. Second, under such losses, we introduce \emph{adversarially robust posteriors}, by exploiting the optimization-centric view of generalized Bayesian inference. Third, we derive the \emph{first} rigorous generalization certificates in the context of an adversarial extension of Bayesian linear regression by leveraging the PAC-Bayesian framework. Finally, experiments on real and synthetic datasets demonstrate the superior robustness of the derived adversarially robust posterior over Bayes posterior, and also validate our theoretical guarantees.

Label distribution learning (LDL) provides a framework wherein a distribution over categories rather than a single category is predicted, with the aim of addressing ambiguity in labeled data. Existing research on LDL mainly focuses on the task of point estimation, i.e., pinpointing an optimal distribution in the probability simplex conditioned on the input sample. In this paper, we estimate a probability distribution of all possible label distributions over the simplex, by unleashing the expressive power of the recently introduced Squared Neural Family (SNEFY). With the modeled distribution, label distribution prediction can be achieved by performing the expectation operation to estimate the mean of the distribution of label distributions. Moreover, more information about the label distribution can be inferred, such as the prediction reliability and uncertainties. We conduct extensive experiments on the label distribution prediction task, showing that our distribution modeling based method can achieve very competitive label distribution prediction performance compared with the state-of-the-art baselines. Additional experiments on active learning and ensemble learning demonstrate that our probabilistic approach can effectively boost the performance in these settings, by accurately estimating the prediction reliability and uncertainties.

We introduce squared neural Poisson point processes (SNEPPPs) by parameterising the intensity function by the squared norm of a two layer neural network. When the hidden layer is fixed and the second layer has a single neuron, our approach resembles previous uses of squared Gaussian process or kernel methods, but allowing the hidden layer to be learnt allows for additional flexibility. In many cases of interest, the integrated intensity function admits a closed form and can be computed in quadratic time in the number of hidden neurons. We enumerate a far more extensive number of such cases than has previously been discussed. Our approach is more memory and time efficient than naive implementations of squared or exponentiated kernel methods or Gaussian processes. Maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimates in a reparameterisation of the final layer of the intensity function can be obtained by solving a (strongly) convex optimisation problem using projected gradient descent. We demonstrate SNEPPPs on real, and synthetic benchmarks, and provide a software implementation. https://github.com/RussellTsuchida/snefy

Efficient inference in high-dimensional models remains a central challenge in machine learning. This paper introduces the Gaussian Ensemble Belief Propagation (GEnBP) algorithm, a fusion of the Ensemble Kalman filter and Gaussian belief propagation (GaBP) methods. GEnBP updates ensembles by passing low-rank local messages in a graphical model structure. This combination inherits favourable qualities from each method. Ensemble techniques allow GEnBP to handle high-dimensional states, parameters and intricate, noisy, black-box generation processes. The use of local messages in a graphical model structure ensures that the approach is suited to distributed computing and can efficiently handle complex dependence structures. GEnBP is particularly advantageous when the ensemble size is considerably smaller than the inference dimension. This scenario often arises in fields such as spatiotemporal modelling, image processing and physical model inversion. GEnBP can be applied to general problem structures, including jointly learning system parameters, observation parameters, and latent state variables.

Flexible models for probability distributions are an essential ingredient in many machine learning tasks. We develop and investigate a new class of probability distributions, which we call a Squared Neural Family (SNEFY), formed by squaring the 2-norm of a neural network and normalising it with respect to a base measure. Following the reasoning similar to the well established connections between infinitely wide neural networks and Gaussian processes, we show that SNEFYs admit closed form normalising constants in many cases of interest, thereby resulting in flexible yet fully tractable density models. SNEFYs strictly generalise classical exponential families, are closed under conditioning, and have tractable marginal distributions. Their utility is illustrated on a variety of density estimation, conditional density estimation, and density estimation with missing data tasks.

Optimal Transport (OT) is a mathematical framework that first emerged in the eighteenth century and has led to a plethora of methods for answering many theoretical and applied questions. The last decade is a witness of the remarkable contributions of this classical optimization problem to machine learning. This paper is about where and how optimal transport is used in machine learning with a focus on the question of salable optimal transport. We provide a comprehensive survey of optimal transport while ensuring an accessible presentation as permitted by the nature of the topic and the context. First, we explain optimal transport background and introduce different flavors (i.e. mathematical formulations), properties, and notable applications. We then address the fundamental question of how to scale optimal transport to cope with the current demands of big and high dimensional data. We conduct a systematic analysis of the methods used in the literature for scaling OT and present the findings in a unified taxonomy. We conclude with presenting some open challenges and discussing potential future research directions. A live repository of related OT research papers is maintained in https://github.com/abdelwahed/OT_for_big_data.git.

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and its exponential family extensions have three components: observations, latents and parameters of a linear transformation. We consider a generalised setting where the canonical parameters of the exponential family are a nonlinear transformation of the latents. We show explicit relationships between particular neural network architectures and the corresponding statistical models. We find that deep equilibrium models -- a recently introduced class of implicit neural networks -- solve maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimates for the latents and parameters of the transformation. Our analysis provides a systematic way to relate activation functions, dropout, and layer structure, to statistical assumptions about the observations, thus providing foundational principles for unsupervised DEQs. For hierarchical latents, individual neurons can be interpreted as nodes in a deep graphical model. Our DEQ feature maps are end-to-end differentiable, enabling fine-tuning for downstream tasks.

We consider the continuum-armed bandits problem, under a novel setting of recommending the best arms within a fixed budget under aggregated feedback. This is motivated by applications where the precise rewards are impossible or expensive to obtain, while an aggregated reward or feedback, such as the average over a subset, is available. We constrain the set of reward functions by assuming that they are from a Gaussian Process and propose the Gaussian Process Optimistic Optimisation (GPOO) algorithm. We adaptively construct a tree with nodes as subsets of the arm space, where the feedback is the aggregated reward of representatives of a node. We propose a new simple regret notion with respect to aggregated feedback on the recommended arms. We provide theoretical analysis for the proposed algorithm, and recover single point feedback as a special case. We illustrate GPOO and compare it with related algorithms on simulated data.

Despite the widespread usage of deep learning in applications (Mnih et al., 2015; Kalchbrenner et al., 2017; Silver et al., 2017; van den Oord et al., 2018), current theoretical understanding of deep networks continues to lag behind the pursued engineering outcomes. Recent theoretical contributions have considered networks in their randomized initial state, or made strong assumptions about the parameters or data during training. For example, Cho & Saul (2009); Daniely et al. (2016); Bach (2017); Tsuchida et al. (2018) analyze the kernels of neural networks with random IID distributions. Insightful analysis connecting signal propagation in deep networks to chaos have made similar assumptions (Poole et al., 2016; Raghu et al., 2017). Clearly the assumption of random IID weights is only valid when the network is in its random initial state.