Identification of nonlinear dynamical systems is crucial across various fields, facilitating tasks such as control, prediction, optimization, and fault detection. Many applications require methods capable of handling complex systems while providing strong learning guarantees for safe and reliable performance. However, existing approaches often focus on simplified scenarios, such as deterministic models, known diffusion, discrete systems, one-dimensional dynamics, or systems constrained by strong structural assumptions such as linearity. This work proposes a novel method for estimating both drift and diffusion coefficients of continuous, multidimensional, nonlinear controlled stochastic differential equations with non-uniform diffusion. We assume regularity of the coefficients within a Sobolev space, allowing for broad applicability to various dynamical systems in robotics, finance, climate modeling, and biology. Leveraging the Fokker-Planck equation, we split the estimation into two tasks: (a) estimating system dynamics for a finite set of controls, and (b) estimating coefficients that govern those dynamics. We provide strong theoretical guarantees, including finite-sample bounds for \(L^2\), \(L^\infty\), and risk metrics, with learning rates adaptive to coefficients' regularity, similar to those in nonparametric least-squares regression literature. The practical effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated through extensive numerical experiments. Our method is available as an open-source Python library.

We study a theoretical and algorithmic framework for structured prediction in the online learning setting. The problem of structured prediction, i.e. estimating function where the output space lacks a vectorial structure, is well studied in the literature of supervised statistical learning. We show that our algorithm is a generalisation of optimal algorithms from the supervised learning setting, and achieves the same excess risk upper bound also when data are not i.i.d. Moreover, we consider a second algorithm designed especially for non-stationary data distributions, including adversarial data. We bound its stochastic regret in function of the variation of the data distributions.

Sequential Bayesian Filtering aims to estimate the current state distribution of a Hidden Markov Model, given the past observations. The problem is well-known to be intractable for most application domains, except in notable cases such as the tabular setting or for linear dynamical systems with gaussian noise. In this work, we propose a new class of filters based on Gaussian PSD Models, which offer several advantages in terms of density approximation and computational efficiency. We show that filtering can be efficiently performed in closed form when transitions and observations are Gaussian PSD Models. When the transition and observations are approximated by Gaussian PSD Models, we show that our proposed estimator enjoys strong theoretical guarantees, with estimation error that depends on the quality of the approximation and is adaptive to the regularity of the transition probabilities. In particular, we identify regimes in which our proposed filter attains a TV $\epsilon$-error with memory and computational complexity of $O(\epsilon^{-1})$ and $O(\epsilon^{-3/2})$ respectively, including the offline learning step, in contrast to the $O(\epsilon^{-2})$ complexity of sampling methods such as particle filtering.

We present a novel approach to non-convex optimization with certificates, which handles smooth functions on the hypercube or on the torus. Unlike traditional methods that rely on algebraic properties, our algorithm exploits the regularity of the target function intrinsic in the decay of its Fourier spectrum. By defining a tractable family of models, we allow at the same time to obtain precise certificates and to leverage the advanced and powerful computational techniques developed to optimize neural networks. In this way the scalability of our approach is naturally enhanced by parallel computing with GPUs. Our approach, when applied to the case of polynomials of moderate dimensions but with thousands of coefficients, outperforms the state-of-the-art optimization methods with certificates, as the ones based on Lasserre's hierarchy, addressing problems intractable for the competitors.

We propose a novel non-parametric learning paradigm for the identification of drift and diffusion coefficients of non-linear stochastic differential equations, which relies upon discrete-time observations of the state. The key idea essentially consists of fitting a RKHS-based approximation of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation to such observations, yielding theoretical estimates of learning rates which, unlike previous works, become increasingly tighter when the regularity of the unknown drift and diffusion coefficients becomes higher. Our method being kernel-based, offline pre-processing may in principle be profitably leveraged to enable efficient numerical implementation.

This paper deals with the problem of efficient sampling from a stochastic differential equation, given the drift function and the diffusion matrix. The proposed approach leverages a recent model for probabilities \cite{rudi2021psd} (the positive semi-definite -- PSD model) from which it is possible to obtain independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) samples at precision $\varepsilon$ with a cost that is $m^2 d \log(1/\varepsilon)$ where $m$ is the dimension of the model, $d$ the dimension of the space. The proposed approach consists in: first, computing the PSD model that satisfies the Fokker-Planck equation (or its fractional variant) associated with the SDE, up to error $\varepsilon$, and then sampling from the resulting PSD model. Assuming some regularity of the Fokker-Planck solution (i.e. $\beta$-times differentiability plus some geometric condition on its zeros) We obtain an algorithm that: (a) in the preparatory phase obtains a PSD model with L2 distance $\varepsilon$ from the solution of the equation, with a model of dimension $m = \varepsilon^{-(d+1)/(\beta-2s)} (\log(1/\varepsilon))^{d+1}$ where $1/2\leq s\leq1$ is the fractional power to the Laplacian, and total computational complexity of $O(m^{3.5} \log(1/\varepsilon))$ and then (b) for Fokker-Planck equation, it is able to produce i.i.d.\ samples with error $\varepsilon$ in Wasserstein-1 distance, with a cost that is $O(d \varepsilon^{-2(d+1)/\beta-2} \log(1/\varepsilon)^{2d+3})$ per sample. This means that, if the probability associated with the SDE is somewhat regular, i.e. $\beta \geq 4d+2$, then the algorithm requires $O(\varepsilon^{-0.88} \log(1/\varepsilon)^{4.5d})$ in the preparatory phase, and $O(\varepsilon^{-1/2}\log(1/\varepsilon)^{2d+2})$ for each sample. Our results suggest that as the true solution gets smoother, we can circumvent the curse of dimensionality without requiring any sort of convexity.

Handling an infinite number of inequality constraints in infinite-dimensional spaces occurs in many fields, from global optimization to optimal transport. These problems have been tackled individually in several previous articles through kernel Sum-Of-Squares (kSoS) approximations. We propose here a unified theorem to prove convergence guarantees for these schemes. Inequalities are turned into equalities to a class of nonnegative kSoS functions. This enables the use of scattering inequalities to mitigate the curse of dimensionality in sampling the constraints, leveraging the assumed smoothness of the functions appearing in the problem. This approach is illustrated in learning vector fields with side information, here the invariance of a set.

The workhorse of machine learning is stochastic gradient descent. To access stochastic gradients, it is common to consider iteratively input/output pairs of a training dataset. Interestingly, it appears that one does not need full supervision to access stochastic gradients, which is the main motivation of this paper. After formalizing the "active labeling" problem, which focuses on active learning with partial supervision, we provide a streaming technique that provably minimizes the ratio of generalization error over the number of samples. We illustrate our technique in depth for robust regression.

We propose and analyse a reduced-rank method for solving least-squares regression problems with infinite dimensional output. We derive learning bounds for our method, and study under which setting statistical performance is improved in comparison to full-rank method. Our analysis extends the interest of reduced-rank regression beyond the standard low-rank setting to more general output regularity assumptions. We illustrate our theoretical insights on synthetic least-squares problems. Then, we propose a surrogate structured prediction method derived from this reduced-rank method. We assess its benefits on three different problems: image reconstruction, multi-label classification, and metabolite identification.

This paper studies an intriguing phenomenon related to the good generalization performance of estimators obtained by using large learning rates within gradient descent algorithms. First observed in the deep learning literature, we show that a phenomenon can be precisely characterized in the context of kernel methods, even though the resulting optimization problem is convex. Specifically, we consider the minimization of a quadratic objective in a separable Hilbert space, and show that with early stopping, the choice of learning rate influences the spectral decomposition of the obtained solution on the Hessian's eigenvectors. This extends an intuition described by Nakkiran (2020) on a two-dimensional toy problem to realistic learning scenarios such as kernel ridge regression. While large learning rates may be proven beneficial as soon as there is a mismatch between the train and test objectives, we further explain why it already occurs in classification tasks without assuming any particular mismatch between train and test data distributions.