Parsons, Simon
A model to support collective reasoning: Formalization, analysis and computational assessment
Ganzer, Jordi, Criado, Natalia, Lopez-Sanchez, Maite, Parsons, Simon, Rodriguez-Aguilar, Juan A.
Inspired by e-participation systems, in this paper we propose a new model to represent human debates and methods to obtain collective conclusions from them. This model overcomes drawbacks of existing approaches by allowing users to introduce new pieces of information into the discussion, to relate them to existing pieces, and also to express their opinion on the pieces proposed by other users. In addition, our model does not assume that users' opinions are rational in order to extract information from it, an assumption that significantly limits current approaches. Instead, we define a weaker notion of rationality that characterises coherent opinions, and we consider different scenarios based on the coherence of individual opinions and the level of consensus that users have on the debate structure. Considering these two factors, we analyse the outcomes of different opinion aggregation functions that compute a collective decision based on the individual opinions and the debate structure. In particular, we demonstrate that aggregated opinions can be coherent even if there is a lack of consensus and individual opinions are not coherent. We conclude our analysis with a computational evaluation demonstrating that collective opinions can be computed efficiently for real-sized debates.
Argument Schemes for Explainable Planning
Mahesar, Quratul-ain, Parsons, Simon
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being increasingly used to develop systems that produce intelligent solutions. However, there is a major concern that whether the systems built will be trusted by humans. In order to establish trust in AI systems, there is a need for the user to understand the reasoning behind their solutions and therefore, the system should be able to explain and justify its output. In this paper, we use argumentation to provide explanations in the domain of AI planning. We present argument schemes to create arguments that explain a plan and its components; and a set of critical questions that allow interaction between the arguments and enable the user to obtain further information regarding the key elements of the plan. Finally, we present some properties of the plan arguments.
Towards an Argumentation System for Supporting Patients in Self-Managing Their Chronic Conditions
Kokciyan, Nadin (King's College London) | Sassoon, Isabel (King's College London) | Young, Anthony P. (King's College London) | Chapman, Martin (King's College London) | Porat, Talya (King's College London) | Ashworth, Mark (King's College London) | Curcin, Vasa (King's College London) | Modgil, Sanjay (King's College London) | Parsons, Simon (King's College London) | Sklar, Elizabeth (King's College London)
CONSULT is a decision-support framework designed to help patients self-manage chronic conditions and adhere to agreed-upon treatment plans, in collaboration with healthcare professionals. The approach taken employs computational argumentation, a logic-based methodology that provides a formal means for reasoning with evidence by substantiating claims for and against particular conclusions. This paper outlines the architecture of CONSULT, illustrating how facts are gathered about the patient and various preferences of the patient and the clinician(s) involved. A logic-based representation of official treatment guidelines by various public health agencies is presented. Logical arguments are constructed from these facts and guidelines; these arguments are analysed to resolve inconsistencies concerning various treatment options and patient/clinician preferences. The claims of the justified arguments are the decisions recommended by CONSULT. A clinical example is presented which illustrates the use of CONSULT within the context of blood pressure management for secondary stroke prevention.
An Argumentation-Based Framework to Address the Attribution Problem in Cyber-Warfare
Shakarian, Paulo, Simari, Gerardo I., Moores, Geoffrey, Parsons, Simon, Falappa, Marcelo A.
Attributing a cyber-operation through the use of multiple pieces of technical evidence (i.e., malware reverse-engineering and source tracking) and conventional intelligence sources (i.e., human or signals intelligence) is a difficult problem not only due to the effort required to obtain evidence, but the ease with which an adversary can plant false evidence. In this paper, we introduce a formal reasoning system called the InCA (Intelligent Cyber Attribution) framework that is designed to aid an analyst in the attribution of a cyber-operation even when the available information is conflicting and/or uncertain. Our approach combines argumentation-based reasoning, logic programming, and probabilistic models to not only attribute an operation but also explain to the analyst why the system reaches its conclusions.
An Argumentation-Based Approach to Handling Trust in Distributed Decision Making
Parsons, Simon (CUNY Brooklyn College) | Sklar, Elizabeth (CUNY Brooklyn College) | Singh, Munindar (North Carolina State University) | Levitt, Karl (University of California, Davis) | Rowe, Jeff (University of California, Davis)
Our work aims to support decision making in situations where the source of the information on which decisions are based is of varying trustworthiness. Our approach uses formal argumentation to capture the relationships between such information sources and conclusions drawn from them. This allows the decision maker to explore how information from particular sources impacts the decisions they have to make. We describe the formal system that underlies our work, and a prototype implementation of that system, applied to a problem from military decision making.
Unsupervised Modeling of Patient-Level Disease Dynamics
Tamang, Suzanne (City University of New York, The Graduate Center) | Parsons, Simon (City University of New York, Brooklyn College and The Graduate Center )
To provide insight into patient-level disease dynamics from data collected at irregular time intervals, this work extends applications of semi-parametric clustering for temporal mining. In the semi-parametric clustering framework, Markovian models provide useful parametric assumptions for modeling temporal dynamics, and a non-parametric method isused to cluster the temporal abstractions instead operating on the original data. Our contribution extends abstraction to continuous-time Markov models and the clustering componentto the non-parametric Bayesian setting, which does not require the number of clusters to be indicated a priori.
On reasoning in networks with qualitative uncertainty
Parsons, Simon, Mamdani, E. H.
In this paper some initial work towards a new approach to qualitative reasoning under uncertainty is presented. This method is not only applicable to qualitative probabilistic reasoning, as is the case with other methods, but also allows the qualitative propagation within networks of values based upon possibility theory and Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The method is applied to two simple networks from which a large class of directed graphs may be constructed. The results of this analysis are used to compare the qualitative behaviour of the three major quantitative uncertainty handling formalisms, and to demonstrate that the qualitative integration of the formalisms is possible under certain assumptions.
Formalizing Scenario Analysis
McBurney, Peter, Parsons, Simon
We propose a formal treatment of scenarios in the context of a dialectical argumentation formalism for qualitative reasoning about uncertain propositions. Our formalism extends prior work in which arguments for and against uncertain propositions were presented and compared in interaction spaces called Agoras. We now define the notion of a scenario in this framework and use it to define a set of qualitative uncertainty labels for propositions across a collection of scenarios. This work is intended to lead to a formal theory of scenarios and scenario analysis.
Learning to Avoid Collisions
Sklar, Elizabeth (Brooklyn College, City University of New York) | Parsons, Simon (Brooklyn College, City University of New York) | Epstein, Susan L. (Hunter College, City University of New York) | Ozgelen, Arif Tuna (The Graduate Center, City University of New York) | Munoz, Juan Pablo (The Graduate Center, City University of New York) | Abbasi, Farah (College of Staten Island, City University of New York) | Schneider, Eric (Hunter College, City University of New York) | Costantino, Michael (College of Staten Island, City University of New York)
Members of a multi-robot team, operating within close quarters, need to avoid crashing into each other. Simple collision avoidance methods can be used to prevent such collisions, typically by computing the distance to other robots and stopping, perhaps moving away, when this distance falls below a certain threshold. While this approach may avoid disaster, it may also reduce the team's efficiency if robots halt for a long time to let others pass by or if they travel further to move around one another. This paper reports on experiments where a human operator, through a graphical user interface, watches robots perform an exploration task. The operator can manually suspend robots' movements before they crash into each other, and then resume their movements when their paths are clear. Experiment logs record the robots' states when they are paused and resumed. A behavior pattern for collision avoidance is learned, by classifying the states of the robots' environment when the human operator issues "wait" and "resume" commands. Preliminary results indicate that it is possible to learn a classifier which models these behavior patterns, and that different human operators consider different factors when making decisions about stopping and starting robots.
Approaches to Multi-Robot Exploration and Localization
Ozgelen, Arif T. (The Graduate Center, City University of New York) | Costantino, Michael (College of Staten Island, City University of New York) | Ishak, Adiba (Brooklyn College, City University of New York) | Kingston, Moses (Brooklyn College, City University of New York) | Moore, Diquan (Lehman College, City University of New York) | Sanchez, Samuel (Queens College, City University of New York) | Munoz, J. Pablo (Brooklyn College, City University of New York) | Parsons, Simon (Brooklyn College, City University of New York) | Sklar, Elizabeth (Brooklyn College, City University of New York)