In modern federated learning, one of the main challenges is to account for inherent heterogeneity and the diverse nature of data distributions for different clients. This problem is often addressed by introducing personalization of the models towards the data distribution of the particular client. However, a personalized model might be unreliable when applied to the data that is not typical for this client. Eventually, it may perform worse for these data than the non-personalized global model trained in a federated way on the data from all the clients. This paper presents a new approach to federated learning that allows selecting a model from global and personalized ones that would perform better for a particular input point. It is achieved through a careful modeling of predictive uncertainties that helps to detect local and global in- and out-of-distribution data and use this information to select the model that is confident in a prediction. The comprehensive experimental evaluation on the popular real-world image datasets shows the superior performance of the model in the presence of out-of-distribution data while performing on par with state-of-the-art personalized federated learning algorithms in the standard scenarios.

The success of Deep Neural Network (DNN) models significantly depends on the quality of provided annotations. In medical image segmentation, for example, having multiple expert annotations for each data point is common to minimize subjective annotation bias. Then, the goal of estimation is to filter out the label noise and recover the ground-truth masks, which are not explicitly given. This paper proposes a probabilistic model for noisy observations that allows us to build a confident classification and segmentation models. To accomplish it, we explicitly model label noise and introduce a new information-based regularization that pushes the network to recover the ground-truth labels. In addition, for segmentation task we adjust the loss function by prioritizing learning in high-confidence regions where all the annotators agree on labeling. We evaluate the proposed method on a series of classification tasks such as noisy versions of MNIST, CIFAR-10, Fashion-MNIST datasets as well as CIFAR-10N, which is real-world dataset with noisy human annotations. Additionally, for segmentation task, we consider several medical imaging datasets, such as, LIDC and RIGA that reflect real-world inter-variability among multiple annotators. Our experiments show that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art solutions for the considered classification and segmentation problems.

Recent advancements in the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have paved the way for a myriad of groundbreaking applications in various fields. However, a significant challenge arises as these models often "hallucinate", i.e., fabricate facts without providing users an apparent means to discern the veracity of their statements. Uncertainty estimation (UE) methods are one path to safer, more responsible, and more effective use of LLMs. However, to date, research on UE methods for LLMs has been focused primarily on theoretical rather than engineering contributions. In this work, we tackle this issue by introducing LM-Polygraph, a framework with implementations of a battery of state-of-the-art UE methods for LLMs in text generation tasks, with unified program interfaces in Python. Additionally, it introduces an extendable benchmark for consistent evaluation of UE techniques by researchers, and a demo web application that enriches the standard chat dialog with confidence scores, empowering end-users to discern unreliable responses. LM-Polygraph is compatible with the most recent LLMs, including BLOOMz, LLaMA-2, ChatGPT, and GPT-4, and is designed to support future releases of similarly-styled LMs.

Federated Learning (FL) is a machine learning framework where many clients collaboratively train models while keeping the training data decentralized. Despite recent advances in FL, the uncertainty quantification topic (UQ) remains partially addressed. Among UQ methods, conformal prediction (CP) approaches provides distribution-free guarantees under minimal assumptions. We develop a new federated conformal prediction method based on quantile regression and take into account privacy constraints. This method takes advantage of importance weighting to effectively address the label shift between agents and provides theoretical guarantees for both valid coverage of the prediction sets and differential privacy. Extensive experimental studies demonstrate that this method outperforms current competitors.

Prediction with the possibility of abstention (or selective prediction) is an important problem for error-critical machine learning applications. While well-studied in the classification setup, selective approaches to regression are much less developed. In this work, we consider the nonparametric heteroskedastic regression problem and develop an abstention procedure via testing the hypothesis on the value of the conditional variance at a given point. Unlike existing methods, the proposed one allows to account not only for the value of the variance itself but also for the uncertainty of the corresponding variance predictor. We prove non-asymptotic bounds on the risk of the resulting estimator and show the existence of several different convergence regimes. Theoretical analysis is illustrated with a series of experiments on simulated and real-world data.

Community detection is one of the most critical problems in modern network science. Its applications can be found in various fields, from protein modeling to social network analysis. Recently, many papers appeared studying the problem of overlapping community detection, where each node of a network may belong to several communities. In this work, we consider Mixed-Membership Stochastic Block Model (MMSB) first proposed by Airoldi et al. (2008). MMSB provides quite a general setting for modeling overlapping community structure in graphs. The central question of this paper is to reconstruct relations between communities given an observed network. We compare different approaches and establish the minimax lower bound on the estimation error. Then, we propose a new estimator that matches this lower bound. Theoretical results are proved under fairly general conditions on the considered model. Finally, we illustrate the theory in a series of experiments.

In deep active learning, it is especially important to choose multiple examples to markup at each step to work efficiently, especially on large datasets. At the same time, existing solutions to this problem in the Bayesian setup, such as BatchBALD, have significant limitations in selecting a large number of examples, associated with the exponential complexity of computing mutual information for joint random variables. We, therefore, present the Large BatchBALD algorithm, which gives a well-grounded approximation to the BatchBALD method that aims to achieve comparable quality while being more computationally efficient. We provide a complexity analysis of the algorithm, showing a reduction in computation time, especially for large batches. Furthermore, we present an extensive set of experimental results on image and text data, both on toy datasets and larger ones such as CIFAR-100.

Construction of human-curated annotated datasets for abstractive text summarization (ATS) is very time-consuming and expensive because creating each instance requires a human annotator to read a long document and compose a shorter summary that would preserve the key information relayed by the original document. Active Learning (AL) is a technique developed to reduce the amount of annotation required to achieve a certain level of machine learning model performance. In information extraction and text classification, AL can reduce the amount of labor up to multiple times. Despite its potential for aiding expensive annotation, as far as we know, there were no effective AL query strategies for ATS. This stems from the fact that many AL strategies rely on uncertainty estimation, while as we show in our work, uncertain instances are usually noisy, and selecting them can degrade the model performance compared to passive annotation. We address this problem by proposing the first effective query strategy for AL in ATS based on diversity principles. We show that given a certain annotation budget, using our strategy in AL annotation helps to improve the model performance in terms of ROUGE and consistency scores. Additionally, we analyze the effect of self-learning and show that it can further increase the performance of the model.

This paper proposes a fast and scalable method for uncertainty quantification of machine learning models' predictions. First, we show the principled way to measure the uncertainty of predictions for a classifier based on Nadaraya-Watson's nonparametric estimate of the conditional label distribution. Importantly, the approach allows to disentangle explicitly aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. The resulting method works directly in the feature space. However, one can apply it to any neural network by considering an embedding of the data induced by the network. We demonstrate the strong performance of the method in uncertainty estimation tasks on a variety of real-world image datasets, such as MNIST, SVHN, CIFAR-100 and several versions of ImageNet.

We develop an Explore-Exploit Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm ($\operatorname{Ex^2MCMC}$) that combines multiple global proposals and local moves. The proposed method is massively parallelizable and extremely computationally efficient. We prove $V$-uniform geometric ergodicity of $\operatorname{Ex^2MCMC}$ under realistic conditions and compute explicit bounds on the mixing rate showing the improvement brought by the multiple global moves. We show that $\operatorname{Ex^2MCMC}$ allows fine-tuning of exploitation (local moves) and exploration (global moves) via a novel approach to proposing dependent global moves. Finally, we develop an adaptive scheme, $\operatorname{FlEx^2MCMC}$, that learns the distribution of global moves using normalizing flows. We illustrate the efficiency of $\operatorname{Ex^2MCMC}$ and its adaptive versions on many classical sampling benchmarks. We also show that these algorithms improve the quality of sampling GANs as energy-based models.