Transformer-based and CNN-based methods demonstrate strong performance in long-term time series forecasting. However, their high computational and storage requirements can hinder large-scale deployment. To address this limitation, we propose integrating lightweight MLP with advanced architectures using knowledge distillation (KD). Our preliminary study reveals different models can capture complementary patterns, particularly multi-scale and multi-period patterns in the temporal and frequency domains. Based on this observation, we introduce TimeDistill, a cross-architecture KD framework that transfers these patterns from teacher models (e.g., Transformers, CNNs) to MLP. Additionally, we provide a theoretical analysis, demonstrating that our KD approach can be interpreted as a specialized form of mixup data augmentation. TimeDistill improves MLP performance by up to 18.6%, surpassing teacher models on eight datasets. It also achieves up to 7X faster inference and requires 130X fewer parameters. Furthermore, we conduct extensive evaluations to highlight the versatility and effectiveness of TimeDistill.

Accurate forecasting of epidemic infection trajectories is crucial for safeguarding public health. However, limited data availability during emerging outbreaks and the complex interaction between environmental factors and disease dynamics present significant challenges for effective forecasting. In response, we introduce CAPE, a novel epidemic pre-training framework designed to harness extensive disease datasets from diverse regions and integrate environmental factors directly into the modeling process for more informed decision-making on downstream diseases. Based on a covariate adjustment framework, CAPE utilizes pre-training combined with hierarchical environment contrasting to identify universal patterns across diseases while estimating latent environmental influences. We have compiled a diverse collection of epidemic time series datasets and validated the effectiveness of CAPE under various evaluation scenarios, including full-shot, few-shot, zero-shot, cross-location, and cross-disease settings, where it outperforms the leading baseline by an average of 9.9% in full-shot and 14.3% in zero-shot settings. The code will be released upon acceptance.

Effective epidemic forecasting is critical for public health strategies and efficient medical resource allocation, especially in the face of rapidly spreading infectious diseases. However, existing deep-learning methods often overlook the dynamic nature of epidemics and fail to account for the specific mechanisms of disease transmission. In response to these challenges, we introduce an innovative end-to-end framework called Epidemiology-Aware Neural ODE with Continuous Disease Transmission Graph (EARTH) in this paper. To learn continuous and regional disease transmission patterns, we first propose EANO, which seamlessly integrates the neural ODE approach with the epidemic mechanism, considering the complex spatial spread process during epidemic evolution. Additionally, we introduce GLTG to model global infection trends and leverage these signals to guide local transmission dynamically. To accommodate both the global coherence of epidemic trends and the local nuances of epidemic transmission patterns, we build a cross-attention approach to fuse the most meaningful information for forecasting. Through the smooth synergy of both components, EARTH offers a more robust and flexible approach to understanding and predicting the spread of infectious diseases. Extensive experiments show EARTH superior performance in forecasting real-world epidemics compared to state-of-the-art methods. The code will be available at https://github.com/Emory-Melody/EpiLearn.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across various natural language processing tasks. Recently, several LLMs-based pipelines have been developed to enhance learning on graphs with text attributes, showcasing promising performance. However, graphs are well-known to be susceptible to adversarial attacks and it remains unclear whether LLMs exhibit robustness in learning on graphs. To address this gap, our work aims to explore the potential of LLMs in the context of adversarial attacks on graphs. Specifically, we investigate the robustness against graph structural and textual perturbations in terms of two dimensions: LLMs-as-Enhancers and LLMs-as-Predictors. Through extensive experiments, we find that, compared to shallow models, both LLMs-as-Enhancers and LLMs-as-Predictors offer superior robustness against structural and textual attacks. Based on these findings, we carried out additional analyses to investigate the underlying causes. Furthermore, we have made our benchmark library openly available to facilitate quick and fair evaluations, and to encourage ongoing innovative research in this field.

EpiLearn is a Python toolkit developed for modeling, simulating, Data mining in epidemiology is a crucial subject in the healthcare and analyzing epidemic data. Although there exist several packages domain, garnering increasing attention in recent years due to the that also deal with epidemic modeling, they are often restricted COVID-19 outbreak [1, 2]. A key focus is the development of computational to mechanistic models or traditional statistical tools. As machine methods in epidemic modeling, which incorporate disease learning continues to shape the world, the gap between these packages transmission mechanisms to provide insights into changing demographic and the latest models has become larger. To bridge the gap health states. The diversity of data involved in epidemic and inspire innovative research in epidemic modeling, EpiLearn modeling necessitates a broad range of tasks, including epidemic not only provides support for evaluating epidemic models based on forecasting [3], simulation [4], source detection [5], intervention machine learning, but also incorporates comprehensive tools for strategies [6], and vaccination [7].

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a growing interest in studying epidemiological models. Traditional mechanistic models mathematically describe the transmission mechanisms of infectious diseases. However, they often suffer from limitations of oversimplified or fixed assumptions, which could cause sub-optimal predictive power and inefficiency in capturing complex relation information. Consequently, Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a progressively popular tool in epidemic research. In this paper, we endeavor to furnish a comprehensive review of GNNs in epidemic tasks and highlight potential future directions. To accomplish this objective, we introduce hierarchical taxonomies for both epidemic tasks and methodologies, offering a trajectory of development within this domain. For epidemic tasks, we establish a taxonomy akin to those typically employed within the epidemic domain. For methodology, we categorize existing work into Neural Models and Hybrid Models. Following this, we perform an exhaustive and systematic examination of the methodologies, encompassing both the tasks and their technical details. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of existing methods from diverse perspectives and systematically propose future research directions. This survey aims to bridge literature gaps and promote the progression of this promising field, with a list of relevant papers at https://github.com/Emory-Melody/awesome-epidemic-modelingpapers. We hope that it will facilitate synergies between the communities of GNNs and epidemiology, and contribute to their collective progress.