We focus on the problem of uncertainty informed allocation of medical resources (vaccines) to heterogeneous populations for managing epidemic spread. We tackle two related questions: (1) For a compartmental ordinary differential equation (ODE) model of epidemic spread, how can we estimate and integrate parameter uncertainty into resource allocation decisions? (2) How can we computationally handle both nonlinear ODE constraints and parameter uncertainties for a generic stochastic optimization problem for resource allocation? To the best of our knowledge current literature does not fully resolve these questions. Here, we develop a data-driven approach to represent parameter uncertainty accurately and tractably in a novel stochastic optimization problem formulation. We first generate a tractable scenario set by estimating the distribution on ODE model parameters using Bayesian inference with Gaussian processes. Next, we develop a parallelized solution algorithm that accounts for scenario-dependent nonlinear ODE constraints. Our scenario-set generation procedure and solution approach are flexible in that they can handle any compartmental epidemiological ODE model. Our computational experiments on two different non-linear ODE models (SEIR and SEPIHR) indicate that accounting for uncertainty in key epidemiological parameters can improve the efficacy of time-critical allocation decisions by 4-8%. This improvement can be attributed to data-driven and optimal (strategic) nature of vaccine allocations, especially in the early stages of the epidemic when the allocation strategy can crucially impact the long-term trajectory of the disease.

Policy gradient algorithms have been widely applied to Markov decision processes and reinforcement learning problems in recent years. Regularization with various entropy functions is often used to encourage exploration and improve stability. This paper proposes an approximate Newton method for the policy gradient algorithm with entropy regularization. In the case of Shannon entropy, the resulting algorithm reproduces the natural policy gradient algorithm. For other entropy functions, this method results in brand-new policy gradient algorithms. We prove that all these algorithms enjoy Newton-type quadratic convergence and that the corresponding gradient flow converges globally to the optimal solution. We use synthetic and industrial-scale examples to demonstrate that the proposed approximate Newton method typically converges in single-digit iterations, often orders of magnitude faster than other state-of-the-art algorithms.

In this paper we consider the problem of best-arm identification in multi-armed bandits in the fixed confidence setting, where the goal is to identify, with probability $1-\delta$ for some $\delta>0$, the arm with the highest mean reward in minimum possible samples from the set of arms $\mathcal{K}$. Most existing best-arm identification algorithms and analyses operate under the assumption that the rewards corresponding to different arms are independent of each other. We propose a novel correlated bandit framework that captures domain knowledge about correlation between arms in the form of upper bounds on expected conditional reward of an arm, given a reward realization from another arm. Our proposed algorithm C-LUCB, which generalizes the LUCB algorithm utilizes this partial knowledge of correlations to sharply reduce the sample complexity of best-arm identification. More interestingly, we show that the total samples obtained by C-LUCB are of the form $\mathcal{O}\left(\sum_{k \in \mathcal{C}} \log\left(\frac{1}{\delta}\right)\right)$ as opposed to the typical $\mathcal{O}\left(\sum_{k \in \mathcal{K}} \log\left(\frac{1}{\delta}\right)\right)$ samples required in the independent reward setting. The improvement comes, as the $\mathcal{O}(\log(1/\delta))$ term is summed only for the set of competitive arms $\mathcal{C}$, which is a subset of the original set of arms $\mathcal{K}$. The size of the set $\mathcal{C}$, depending on the problem setting, can be as small as $2$, and hence using C-LUCB in the correlated bandits setting can lead to significant performance improvements. Our theoretical findings are supported by experiments on the Movielens and Goodreads recommendation datasets.

Due to communication constraints and intermittent client availability in federated learning, only a subset of clients can participate in each training round. While most prior works assume uniform and unbiased client selection, recent work on biased client selection has shown that selecting clients with higher local losses can improve error convergence speed. However, previously proposed biased selection strategies either require additional communication cost for evaluating the exact local loss or utilize stale local loss, which can even make the model diverge. In this paper, we present a bandit-based communication-efficient client selection strategy UCB-CS that achieves faster convergence with lower communication overhead. We also demonstrate how client selection can be used to improve fairness.

Error-Correcting Output Codes (ECOCs) offer a principled approach for combining simple binary classifiers into multiclass classifiers. In this paper, we investigate the problem of designing optimal ECOCs to achieve both nominal and adversarial accuracy using Support Vector Machines (SVMs) and binary deep learning models. In contrast to previous literature, we present an Integer Programming (IP) formulation to design minimal codebooks with desirable error correcting properties. Our work leverages the advances in IP solvers to generate codebooks with optimality guarantees. To achieve tractability, we exploit the underlying graph-theoretic structure of the constraint set in our IP formulation. This enables us to use edge clique covers to substantially reduce the constraint set. Our codebooks achieve a high nominal accuracy relative to standard codebooks (e.g., one-vs-all, one-vs-one, and dense/sparse codes). We also estimate the adversarial accuracy of our ECOC-based classifiers in a white-box setting. Our IP-generated codebooks provide non-trivial robustness to adversarial perturbations even without any adversarial training.

We consider a correlated multi-armed bandit problem in which rewards of arms are correlated through a hidden parameter. Our approach exploits the correlation among arms to identify some arms as sub-optimal and pulls them only $\mathcal{O}(1)$ times. This results in significant reduction in cumulative regret, and in fact our algorithm achieves bounded (i.e., $\mathcal{O}(1)$) regret whenever possible; explicit conditions needed for bounded regret to be possible are also provided by analyzing regret lower bounds. We propose several variants of our approach that generalize classical bandit algorithms such as UCB, Thompson sampling, KL-UCB to the structured bandit setting, and empirically demonstrate their superiority via simulations.

This paper studies the problem of {\em learning} the probability distribution $P_X$ of a discrete random variable $X$ using indirect and sequential samples. At each time step, we choose one of the possible $K$ functions, $g_1, \ldots, g_K$ and observe the corresponding sample $g_i(X)$. The goal is to estimate the probability distribution of $X$ by using a minimum number of such sequential samples. This problem has several real-world applications including inference under non-precise information and privacy-preserving statistical estimation. We establish necessary and sufficient conditions on the functions $g_1, \ldots, g_K$ under which asymptotically consistent estimation is possible. We also derive lower bounds on the estimation error as a function of total samples and show that it is order-wise achievable. Leveraging these results, we propose an iterative algorithm that i) chooses the function to observe at each step based on past observations; and ii) combines the obtained samples to estimate $p_X$. The performance of this algorithm is investigated numerically under various scenarios, and shown to outperform baseline approaches.