This paper presents an advanced Federated Learning (FL) framework for forecasting complex spatiotemporal data, improving upon recent state-of-the-art models. In the proposed approach, the original Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) module within previous Dynamic Spatial--Temporal Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (DSTGCRN) modeling is first replaced with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, enabling the resulting model to more effectively capture long-term dependencies inherent to time series data. The resulting architecture significantly improves the model's capacity to handle complex temporal patterns in diverse forecasting applications. Furthermore, the proposed FL framework integrates a novel Client-Side Validation (CSV) mechanism, introducing a critical validation step at the client level before incorporating aggregated parameters from the central server into local models. This ensures that only the most effective updates are adopted, improving both the robustness and accuracy of the forecasting model across clients. The efficiency of our approach is demonstrated through extensive experiments on real-world applications, including public datasets for multimodal transport demand forecasting and private datasets for Origin-Destination (OD) matrix forecasting in urban areas. The results demonstrate substantial improvements over conventional methods, highlighting the framework's ability to capture complex spatiotemporal dependencies while preserving data privacy. This work not only provides a scalable and privacy-preserving solution for real-time, region-specific forecasting and management but also underscores the potential of leveraging distributed data sources in a FL context. We provide our algorithms as open-source on GitHub.

In modern machine learning problems one has to deal with datasets that are not centralized. This may be related to the application context in which the data can be by nature available at different locations and not accessible in a centralized mode, or distributed for computational issues in case of a large amount of data. Indeed, even if the dataset is fully available in a centralized mode, implementing reasonable learning algorithms may be computationally demanding in case of a large number of examples. The construction of distributed techniques in a Federated Learning setting Yang et al. (2019) in which the model is trained collaboratively under the orchestration of a central server, while keeping the data decentralized, is an increasing area of research. The most attractive strategy is to perform standard inference on local machines to obtain local estimators, then transmits them to a central machine where they are aggregated to produce an overall estimator, while attempting to satisfy some statistical guarantees criteria. There are many successful attempts in this direction of parallelizing the existing learning algorithms and statistical methods. Those that may be mentioned here include, among others, parallelizing stochastic gradient descent (Zinkevich et al., 2010), multiple linear regression (Mingxian et al., 1991), parallel K-means in clustering based on MapReduce (Zhao et al., 2009), distributed learning for heterogeneous data via model integration (Merugu and Ghosh, 2005), split-and-conquer approach for penalized regressions (Chen and ge Xie, 2014), for logistic regression (Shofiyah and Sofro, 2018), for k-clustering with heavy noise Li and Guo (2018). It is only very recently that a distributed learning approach has been proposed for mixture distributions, specifically for finite Gaussian mixtures (Zhang and Chen, 2022a). In this paper we focus on mixtures of experts (MoE) models (Jacobs et al., 1991; Jordan and Xu, 1995) which extend the standard unconditional mixture distributions that are typically used for clustering purposes, to model complex non-linear relationships of a response Y conditionally on some predictors X, for prediction purposes, while enjoying denseness results, e.g.

An important mathematical tool in the analysis of dynamical systems is the approximation of the reach set, i.e., the set of states reachable after a given time from a given initial state. This set is difficult to compute for complex systems even if the system dynamics are known and given by a system of ordinary differential equations with known coefficients. In practice, parameters are often unknown and mathematical models difficult to obtain. Data-based approaches are promised to avoid these difficulties by estimating the reach set based on a sample of states. If a model is available, this training set can be obtained through numerical simulation. In the absence of a model, real-life observations can be used instead. A recently proposed approach for data-based reach set approximation uses Christoffel functions to approximate the reach set. Under certain assumptions, the approximation is guaranteed to converge to the true solution. In this paper, we improve upon these results by notably improving the sample efficiency and relaxing some of the assumptions by exploiting statistical guarantees from conformal prediction with training and calibration sets. In addition, we exploit an incremental way to compute the Christoffel function to avoid the calibration set while maintaining the statistical convergence guarantees. Furthermore, our approach is robust to outliers in the training and calibration set.

We consider the statistical analysis of heterogeneous data for clustering and prediction purposes, in situations where the observations include functions, typically time series. We extend the modeling with Mixtures-of-Experts (ME), as a framework of choice in modeling heterogeneity in data for prediction and clustering with vectorial observations, to this functional data analysis context. We first present a new family of functional ME (FME) models, in which the predictors are potentially noisy observations, from entire functions, and the data generating process of the pair predictor and the real response, is governed by a hidden discrete variable representing an unknown partition, leading to complex situations to which the standard ME framework is not adapted. Second, we provide sparse and interpretable functional representations of the FME models, thanks to Lasso-like regularizations, notably on the derivatives of the underlying functional parameters of the model, projected onto a set of continuous basis functions. We develop dedicated expectation--maximization algorithms for Lasso-like regularized maximum-likelihood parameter estimation strategies, to encourage sparse and interpretable solutions. The proposed FME models and the developed EM-Lasso algorithms are studied in simulated scenarios and in applications to two real data sets, and the obtained results demonstrate their performance in accurately capturing complex nonlinear relationships between the response and the functional predictor, and in clustering.