Credible forecasting and representation learning of dynamical systems are of ever-increasing importance for reliable decision-making. To that end, we propose a family of Gaussian processes (GP) for dynamical systems with linear time-invariant responses, which are nonlinear only in initial conditions. This linearity allows us to tractably quantify forecasting and representational uncertainty, simultaneously alleviating the challenge of computing the distribution of trajectories from a GP-based dynamical system and enabling a new probabilistic treatment of learning Koopman operator representations. Using a trajectory-based equivariance -- which we refer to as \textit{Koopman equivariance} -- we obtain a GP model with enhanced generalization capabilities. To allow for large-scale regression, we equip our framework with variational inference based on suitable inducing points. Experiments demonstrate on-par and often better forecasting performance compared to kernel-based methods for learning dynamical systems.

While Gaussian processes are a mainstay for various engineering and scientific applications, the uncertainty estimates don't satisfy frequentist guarantees and can be miscalibrated in practice. State-of-the-art approaches for designing calibrated models rely on inflating the Gaussian process posterior variance, which yields confidence intervals that are potentially too coarse. To remedy this, we present a calibration approach that generates predictive quantiles using a computation inspired by the vanilla Gaussian process posterior variance but using a different set of hyperparameters chosen to satisfy an empirical calibration constraint. This results in a calibration approach that is considerably more flexible than existing approaches, which we optimize to yield tight predictive quantiles. Our approach is shown to yield a calibrated model under reasonable assumptions. Furthermore, it outperforms existing approaches in sharpness when employed for calibrated regression.

Safety-critical control tasks with high levels of uncertainty are becoming increasingly common. Typically, techniques that guarantee safety during learning and control utilize constraint-based safety certificates, which can be leveraged to compute safe control inputs. However, excessive model uncertainty can render robust safety certification methods or infeasible, meaning no control input satisfies the constraints imposed by the safety certificate. This paper considers a learning-based setting with a robust safety certificate based on a control barrier function (CBF) second-order cone program. If the control barrier function certificate is feasible, our approach leverages it to guarantee safety. Otherwise, our method explores the system dynamics to collect data and recover the feasibility of the control barrier function constraint. To this end, we employ a method inspired by well-established tools from Bayesian optimization. We show that if the sampling frequency is high enough, we recover the feasibility of the robust CBF certificate, guaranteeing safety. Our approach requires no prior model and corresponds, to the best of our knowledge, to the first algorithm that guarantees safety in settings with occasionally infeasible safety certificates without requiring a backup non-learning-based controller.

Solving chance-constrained stochastic optimal control problems is a significant challenge in control. This is because no analytical solutions exist for up to a handful of special cases. A common and computationally efficient approach for tackling chance-constrained stochastic optimal control problems consists of reformulating the chance constraints as hard constraints with a constraint-tightening parameter. However, in such approaches, the choice of constraint-tightening parameter remains challenging, and guarantees can mostly be obtained assuming that the process noise distribution is known a priori. Moreover, the chance constraints are often not tightly satisfied, leading to unnecessarily high costs. This work proposes a data-driven approach for learning the constraint-tightening parameters online during control. To this end, we reformulate the choice of constraint-tightening parameter for the closed-loop as a binary regression problem. We then leverage a highly expressive \gls{gp} model for binary regression to approximate the smallest constraint-tightening parameters that satisfy the chance constraints. By tuning the algorithm parameters appropriately, we show that the resulting constraint-tightening parameters satisfy the chance constraints up to an arbitrarily small margin with high probability. Our approach yields constraint-tightening parameters that tightly satisfy the chance constraints in numerical experiments, resulting in a lower average cost than three other state-of-the-art approaches.

Control schemes that learn using measurement data collected online are increasingly promising for the control of complex and uncertain systems. However, in most approaches of this kind, learning is viewed as a side effect that passively improves control performance, e.g., by updating a model of the system dynamics. Determining how improvements in control performance due to learning can be actively exploited in the control synthesis is still an open research question. In this paper, we present AntLer, a design algorithm for learning-based control laws that anticipates learning, i.e., that takes the impact of future learning in uncertain dynamic settings explicitly into account. AntLer expresses system uncertainty using a non-parametric probabilistic model. Given a cost function that measures control performance, AntLer chooses the control parameters such that the expected cost of the closed-loop system is minimized approximately. We show that AntLer approximates an optimal solution arbitrarily accurately with probability one. Furthermore, we apply AntLer to a nonlinear system, which yields better results compared to the case where learning is not anticipated.

The performance of learning-based control techniques crucially depends on how effectively the system is explored. While most exploration techniques aim to achieve a globally accurate model, such approaches are generally unsuited for systems with unbounded state spaces. Furthermore, a globally accurate model is not required to achieve good performance in many common control applications, e.g., local stabilization tasks. In this paper, we propose an active learning strategy for Gaussian process state space models that aims to obtain an accurate model on a bounded subset of the state-action space. Our approach aims to maximize the mutual information of the exploration trajectories with respect to a discretization of the region of interest. By employing model predictive control, the proposed technique integrates information collected during exploration and adaptively improves its exploration strategy. To enable computational tractability, we decouple the choice of most informative data points from the model predictive control optimization step. This yields two optimization problems that can be solved in parallel. We apply the proposed method to explore the state space of various dynamical systems and compare our approach to a commonly used entropy-based exploration strategy. In all experiments, our method yields a better model within the region of interest than the entropy-based method.