We consider a teacher-student model of supervised learning with a fully-trained 2-layer neural network whose width $k$ and input dimension $d$ are large and proportional. We compute the Bayes-optimal generalisation error of the network for any activation function in the regime where the number of training data $n$ scales quadratically with the input dimension, i.e., around the interpolation threshold where the number of trainable parameters $kd+k$ and of data points $n$ are comparable. Our analysis tackles generic weight distributions. Focusing on binary weights, we uncover a discontinuous phase transition separating a "universal" phase from a "specialisation" phase. In the first, the generalisation error is independent of the weight distribution and decays slowly with the sampling rate $n/d^2$, with the student learning only some non-linear combinations of the teacher weights. In the latter, the error is weight distribution-dependent and decays faster due to the alignment of the student towards the teacher network. We thus unveil the existence of a highly predictive solution near interpolation, which is however potentially hard to find.

Cerebral aneurysms and arteriovenous malformations are life-threatening hemodynamic pathologies of the brain. While surgical intervention is often essential to prevent fatal outcomes, it carries significant risks both during the procedure and in the postoperative period, making the management of these conditions highly challenging. Parameters of cerebral blood flow, routinely monitored during medical interventions, could potentially be utilized in machine learning-assisted protocols for risk assessment and therapeutic prognosis. To this end, we developed a linear oscillatory model of blood velocity and pressure for clinical data acquired from neurosurgical operations. Using the method of Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy), the parameters of our model can be reconstructed online within milliseconds from a short time series of the hemodynamic variables. The identified parameter values enable automated classification of the blood-flow pathologies by means of logistic regression, achieving an accuracy of 73 %. Our results demonstrate the potential of this model for both diagnostic and prognostic applications, providing a robust and interpretable framework for assessing cerebral blood vessel conditions.

Matrix denoising is central to signal processing and machine learning. Its analysis when the matrix to infer has a factorised structure with a rank growing proportionally to its dimension remains a challenge, except when it is rotationally invariant. In this case the information theoretic limits and a Bayes-optimal denoising algorithm, called rotational invariant estimator [1,2], are known. Beyond this setting few results can be found. The reason is that the model is not a usual spin system because of the growing rank dimension, nor a matrix model due to the lack of rotation symmetry, but rather a hybrid between the two. In this paper we make progress towards the understanding of Bayesian matrix denoising when the hidden signal is a factored matrix $XX^\intercal$ that is not rotationally invariant. Monte Carlo simulations suggest the existence of a denoising-factorisation transition separating a phase where denoising using the rotational invariant estimator remains Bayes-optimal due to universality properties of the same nature as in random matrix theory, from one where universality breaks down and better denoising is possible by exploiting the signal's prior and factorised structure, though algorithmically hard. We also argue that it is only beyond the transition that factorisation, i.e., estimating $X$ itself, becomes possible up to sign and permutation ambiguities. On the theoretical side, we combine mean-field techniques in an interpretable multiscale fashion in order to access the minimum mean-square error and mutual information. Interestingly, our alternative method yields equations which can be reproduced using the replica approach of [3]. Using numerical insights, we then delimit the portion of the phase diagram where this mean-field theory is reliable, and correct it using universality when it is not. Our ansatz matches well the numerics when accounting for finite size effects.

We carry out an information-theoretical analysis of a two-layer neural network trained from input-output pairs generated by a teacher network with matching architecture, in overparametrized regimes. Our results come in the form of bounds relating i) the mutual information between training data and network weights, or ii) the Bayes-optimal generalization error, to the same quantities but for a simpler (generalized) linear model for which explicit expressions are rigorously known. Our bounds, which are expressed in terms of the number of training samples, input dimension and number of hidden units, thus yield fundamental performance limits for any neural network (and actually any learning procedure) trained from limited data generated according to our two-layer teacher neural network model. The proof relies on rigorous tools from spin glasses and is guided by ``Gaussian equivalence principles'' lying at the core of numerous recent analyses of neural networks. With respect to the existing literature, which is either non-rigorous or restricted to the case of the learning of the readout weights only, our results are information-theoretic (i.e. are not specific to any learning algorithm) and, importantly, cover a setting where all the network parameters are trained.

How do statistical dependencies in measurement noise influence high-dimensional inference? To answer this, we study the paradigmatic spiked matrix model of principal components analysis (PCA), where a rank-one matrix is corrupted by additive noise. We go beyond the usual independence assumption on the noise entries, by drawing the noise from a low-order polynomial orthogonal matrix ensemble. The resulting noise correlations make the setting relevant for applications but analytically challenging. We provide the first characterization of the Bayes-optimal limits of inference in this model. If the spike is rotation-invariant, we show that standard spectral PCA is optimal. However, for more general priors, both PCA and the existing approximate message passing algorithm (AMP) fall short of achieving the information-theoretic limits, which we compute using the replica method from statistical mechanics. We thus propose a novel AMP, inspired by the theory of Adaptive Thouless-Anderson-Palmer equations, which saturates the theoretical limit. This AMP comes with a rigorous state evolution analysis tracking its performance. Although we focus on specific noise distributions, our methodology can be generalized to a wide class of trace matrix ensembles at the cost of more involved expressions. Finally, despite the seemingly strong assumption of rotation-invariant noise, our theory empirically predicts algorithmic performance on real data, pointing at remarkable universality properties.

We study the performance of a Bayesian statistician who estimates a rank-one signal corrupted by non-symmetric rotationally invariant noise with a generic distribution of singular values. As the signal-to-noise ratio and the noise structure are unknown, a Gaussian setup is incorrectly assumed. We derive the exact analytic expression for the error of the mismatched Bayes estimator and also provide the analysis of an approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm. The first result exploits the asymptotic behavior of spherical integrals for rectangular matrices and of low-rank matrix perturbations; the second one relies on the design and analysis of an auxiliary AMP. The numerical experiments show that there is a performance gap between the AMP and Bayes estimators, which is due to the incorrect estimation of the signal norm.

We consider a generic class of log-concave, possibly random, (Gibbs) measures. We prove the concentration of an infinite family of order parameters called multioverlaps. Because they completely parametrise the quenched Gibbs measure of the system, this implies a simple representation of the asymptotic Gibbs measures, as well as the decoupling of the variables in a strong sense. These results may prove themselves useful in several contexts. In particular in machine learning and high-dimensional inference, log-concave measures appear in convex empirical risk minimisation, maximum a-posteriori inference or M-estimation. We believe that they may be applicable in establishing some type of "replica symmetric formulas" for the free energy, inference or generalisation error in such settings.

We consider generalized linear models in regimes where the number of nonzero components of the signal and accessible data points are sublinear with respect to the size of the signal. We prove a variational formula for the asymptotic mutual information per sample when the system size grows to infinity. This result allows us to derive an expression for the minimum mean-square error (MMSE) of the Bayesian estimator when the signal entries have a discrete distribution with finite support. We find that, for such signals and suitable vanishing scalings of the sparsity and sampling rate, the MMSE is nonincreasing piecewise constant. In specific instances the MMSE even displays an all-or-nothing phase transition, that is, the MMSE sharply jumps from its maximum value to zero at a critical sampling rate. The all-or-nothing phenomenon has previously been shown to occur in high-dimensional linear regression. Our analysis goes beyond the linear case and applies to learning the weights of a perceptron with general activation function in a teacher-student scenario. In particular, we discuss an all-or-nothing phenomenon for the generalization error with a sublinear set of training examples.

Generalized linear models (GLMs) arise in high-dimensional machine learning, statistics, communications and signal processing. In this paper we analyze GLMs when the data matrix is random, as relevant in problems such as compressed sensing, error-correcting codes or benchmark models in neural networks. We evaluate the mutual information (or "free entropy") from which we deduce the Bayes-optimal estimation and generalization errors. Our analysis applies to the high-dimensional limit where both the number of samples and the dimension are large and their ratio is fixed. Non-rigorous predictions for the optimal errors existed for special cases of GLMs, e.g. for the perceptron, in the field of statistical physics based on the so-called replica method. Our present paper rigorously establishes those decades old conjectures and brings forward their algorithmic interpretation in terms of performance of the generalized approximate message-passing algorithm. Furthermore, we tightly characterize, for many learning problems, regions of parameters for which this algorithm achieves the optimal performance, and locate the associated sharp phase transitions separating learnable and non-learnable regions. We believe that this random version of GLMs can serve as a challenging benchmark for multi-purpose algorithms. This paper is divided in two parts that can be read independently: The first part (main part) presents the model and main results, discusses some applications and sketches the main ideas of the proof. The second part (supplementary informations) is much more detailed and provides more examples as well as all the proofs.

Heuristic tools from statistical physics have been used in the past to locate the phase transitions and compute the optimal learning and generalization errors in the teacher-student scenario in multi-layer neural networks. In this contribution, we provide a rigorous justification of these approaches for a two-layers neural network model called the committee machine. We also introduce a version of the approximate message passing (AMP) algorithm for the committee machine that allows to perform optimal learning in polynomial time for a large set of parameters. We find that there are regimes in which a low generalization error is information-theoretically achievable while the AMP algorithm fails to deliver it, strongly suggesting that no efficient algorithm exists for those cases, and unveiling a large computational gap.