Sequentially Fitting ``Inclusive'' Trees for Inference in Noisy-OR Networks

Forexample, in medical diagnosis, the presence of a symptom can be expressed as a noisy-OR of the diseases that may cause the symptom - on some occasions, a disease may fail to activate the symptom. Inference in richly-connected noisy-OR networks is intractable, butapproximate methods (e .g., variational techniques) are showing increasing promise as practical solutions. One problem withmost approximations is that they tend to concentrate on a relatively small number of modes in the true posterior, ignoring otherplausible configurations of the hidden variables. We introduce a new sequential variational method for bipartite noisy OR networks, that favors including all modes of the true posterior and models the posterior distribution as a tree. We compare this method with other approximations using an ensemble of networks with network statistics that are comparable to the QMR-DT medical diagnosticnetwork. 1 Inclusive variational approximations Approximate algorithms for probabilistic inference are gaining in popularity and are now even being incorporated into VLSI hardware (T.