Allen School News » Seeing the forest for the trees: UW team advances explainable AI for popular machine learning models used to predict human disease and mortality risks

Tree-based machine learning models are among the most popular non-linear predictive learning models in use today, with applications in a variety of domains such as medicine, finance, advertising, supply chain management, and more. These models are often described as a "black box" -- while their predictions are based on user inputs, how the models arrived at their predictions using those inputs is shrouded in mystery. This is problematic for some use cases, such as medicine, where the patterns and individual variability a model might uncover among various factors can be as important as the prediction itself. Now, thanks to researchers in the Allen School's Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence for Medicine and Science (AIMS Lab) and UW Medicine, the path from inputs to predicted outcome has become a lot less dense. In a paper published today in the journal Nature Machine Intelligence, the team presents TreeExplainer, a novel set of tools rooted in game theory that enables exact computation of optimal local explanations for tree-based models.