Causal Structure Learning for Famine Prediction

Food shortages are increasing in many areas of the world. In this paper, we consider the problem of understanding the causal relationships between socioeconomic factors in a developing-world household and their risk of experiencing famine. We analyse the extent to which it is possible to predict famine in a household based on these factors, looking at a data collected from 5404 households in Uganda. To do this we use a set of causal structure learning algorithms, employed as a committee that votes on the causal relationships between the variables. We contrast prediction accuracy of famine based on feature sets suggested by our prior knowledge and by the models we learn.