Graph-Smoothed Bayesian Black-Box Shift Estimator and Its Information Geometry

Label shift adaptation aims to recover target class priors when the labelled source distribution P and the unlabelled target distribution Qshare P(X | Y) = Q(X | Y) but P(Y) = Q(Y). Classical black-box shift estimators invert an empirical confusion matrix of a frozen classifier, producing a brittle point estimate that ignores sampling noise and similarity among classes.