Learning with little mixing

We study square loss in a realizable time-series framework with martingale difference noise. Our main result is a fast rate excess risk bound which shows that whenever a trajectory hypercontractivity condition holds, the risk of the leastsquares estimator on dependent data matches the iid rate order-wise after a burn-in time. In comparison, many existing results in learning from dependent data have rates where the effective sample size is deflated by a factor of the mixing-time of the underlying process, even after the burn-in time. Furthermore, our results allow the covariate process to exhibit long range correlations which are substantially weaker than geometric ergodicity.