Global Dynamics of Online Group Conversations

Public online groups allow individuals to carry out conver- sations of common interests. Study of such group conversa- tions provides a unique opportunity to study patterns of hu- man conversations without violating individual privacy. The observational studies conducted in this paper are an attempt to identify the main correlates of continued growth of con- versations, thereby clearing the path to developing predictive models user participation. We study temporal evolution of online group discussions. Surprisingly, we find that individual discussion groups dis- play distinctively q-exponential shaped inter-message times to reply distributions, unlike the power law distributions seen in email conversations. We show, using simulations, that the heavy-tailed distribution of time to reply, which we also ob- serve when all data is combined, originate from mixtures of q-exponentials. We also find that popular threads come to be so from the very beginning as opposed to evolving to be more popular as they grow. This raises new possibilities for devel- oping generative models of thread growth.