Solving Empirical Bayes via Transformers

This work applies modern AI tools (transformers) to solving one of the oldest statistical problems: Poisson means under empirical Bayes (Poisson-EB) setting. In Poisson-EB a high-dimensional mean vector $\theta$ (with iid coordinates sampled from an unknown prior $\pi$) is estimated on the basis of $X=\mathrm{Poisson}(\theta)$. A transformer model is pre-trained on a set of synthetically generated pairs $(X,\theta)$ and learns to do in-context learning (ICL) by adapting to unknown $\pi$. Theoretically, we show that a sufficiently wide transformer can achieve vanishing regret with respect to an oracle estimator who knows $\pi$ as dimension grows to infinity. Practically, we discover that already very small models (100k parameters) are able to outperform the best classical algorithm (non-parametric maximum likelihood, or NPMLE) both in runtime and validation loss, which we compute on out-of-distribution synthetic data as well as real-world datasets (NHL hockey, MLB baseball, BookCorpusOpen). Finally, by using linear probes, we confirm that the transformer's EB estimator appears to internally work differently from either NPMLE or Robbins' estimators.