Distilling importance sampling

Prangle, Dennis

arXiv.org Machine Learning 

The two main approaches to Bayesian inference are sampling and optimisation methods. However many complicated posteriors are difficult to approximate by either. Therefore we propose a novel approach combining features of both. We use a flexible parameterised family of densities, such as a normalising flow. Given a density from this family approximating the posterior we use importance sampling to produce a weighted sample from a more accurate posterior approximation. This sample is then used in optimisation to update the parameters of the approximate density, a process we refer to as "distilling" the importance sampling results. We illustrate our method in a queueing model example.

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