Counterfactual inference aims to estimate the counterfactual outcome at the individual level given knowledge of an observed treatment and the factual outcome, with broad applications in fields such as epidemiology, econometrics, and management science. Previous methods rely on a known structural causal model (SCM) or assume the homogeneity of the exogenous variable and strict monotonicity between the outcome and exogenous variable. In this paper, we propose a principled approach for identifying and estimating the counterfactual outcome. We first introduce a simple and intuitive rank preservation assumption to identify the counterfactual outcome without relying on a known structural causal model. Building on this, we propose a novel ideal loss for theoretically unbiased learning of the counterfactual outcome and further develop a kernel-based estimator for its empirical estimation. Our theoretical analysis shows that the rank preservation assumption is not stronger than the homogeneity and strict monotonicity assumptions, and shows that the proposed ideal loss is convex, and the proposed estimator is unbiased. Extensive semi-synthetic and real-world experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Large Language Models (LLMs) enable a new form of digital experimentation where treatments combine human and model-generated content in increasingly sophisticated ways. The main methodological challenge in this setting is representing these high-dimensional treatments without losing their semantic meaning or rendering analysis intractable. Here we address this problem by focusing on learning low-dimensional representations that capture the underlying structure of such treatments. These representations enable downstream applications such as guiding generative models to produce meaningful treatment variants and facilitating adaptive assignment in online experiments. We propose double kernel representation learning, which models the causal effect through the inner product of kernel-based representations of treatments and user covariates. We develop an alternating-minimization algorithm that learns these representations efficiently from data and provide convergence guarantees under a low-rank factor model. As an application of this framework, we introduce an adaptive design strategy for online experimentation and demonstrate the method's effectiveness through numerical experiments.

We investigate the robustness of Large Language Models (LLMs) to structural interventions by deleting and swapping adjacent layers during inference. Surprisingly, models retain 72-95% of their original top-1 prediction accuracy without any fine-tuning. We find that performance degradation is not uniform across layers: interventions to the early and final layers cause the most degradation, while the model is remarkably robust to dropping middle layers. This pattern of localized sensitivity motivates our hypothesis of four stages of inference, observed across diverse model families and sizes: (1) detokenization, where local context is integrated to lift raw token embeddings into higher-level representations; (2) feature engineering, where task-and entity-specific features are iteratively refined; (3) prediction ensembling, where hidden states are aggregated into plausible next-token predictions; and (4) residual calibration, where irrelevant features are suppressed to finalize the top-1 output distribution. Synthesizing behavioral and mechanistic evidence, we provide a hypothesis for interpreting depth-dependent computations in LLMs.

We propose Shallow Flow Matching (SFM), a novel mechanism that enhances flow matching (FM)-based text-to-speech (TTS) models within a coarse-to-fine generation paradigm. Unlike conventional FM modules, which use the coarse representations from the weak generator as conditions, SFM constructs intermediate states along the FM paths from these representations. During training, we introduce an orthogonal projection method to adaptively determine the temporal position of these states, and apply a principled construction strategy based on a singlesegment piecewise flow. The SFM inference starts from the intermediate state rather than pure noise, thereby focusing computation on the latter stages of the FM paths. We integrate SFM into multiple TTS models with a lightweight SFM head. Experiments demonstrate that SFM yields consistent gains in speech naturalness across both objective and subjective evaluations, and significantly accelerates inference when using adaptive-step ODE solvers. Demo and codes are available at https://ydqmkkx.github.io/SFMDemo/.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in scientific machine learning is increasingly critical as neural networks are widely adopted to tackle complex problems across diverse scientific disciplines. For physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), a prominent model in scientific machine learning, uncertainty is typically quantified using Bayesian or dropout methods. However, both approaches suffer from a fundamental limitation: the prior distribution or dropout rate required to construct honest confidence sets cannot be determined without additional information. In this paper, we propose a novel method within the framework of extended fiducial inference (EFI) to provide rigorous uncertainty quantification for PINNs. The proposed method leverages a narrow-neck hyper-network to learn the parameters of the PINN and quantify their uncertainty based on imputed random errors in the observations. This approach overcomes the limitations of Bayesian and dropout methods, enabling the construction of honest confidence sets based solely on observed data. This advancement represents a significant breakthrough for PINNs, greatly enhancing their reliability, interpretability, and applicability to real-world scientific and engineering challenges. Moreover, it establishes a new theoretical framework for EFI, extending its application to large-scale models, eliminating the need for sparse hyper-networks, and significantly improving the automaticity and robustness of statistical inference.

Realignment becomes necessary when a language model (LM) fails to meet expected performance. We propose a flexible realignment framework that supports quantitative control of alignment degree during training and inference. This framework incorporates Training-time Realignment (TrRa), which efficiently realigns the reference model by leveraging the controllable fusion of logits from both the reference and already aligned models. For example, TrRa reduces token usage by 54.63% on DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B without any performance degradation, outperforming DeepScaleR-1.5B's

Large-language-model inference with long contexts often produces key-value (KV) caches whose footprint exceeds the capacity of high-bandwidth memory on a GPU. Prior LLM inference frameworks such as vLLM mitigate this pressure by swapping KV cache pages to host DRAM. However, the high cost of large DRAM pools makes this solution economically unattractive. Although offloading to SSDs can be a cost-effective way to expand memory capacity relative to DRAM, conventional frameworks such as FlexGen experience a substantial throughput drop since the data path that routes SSD traffic through CPU to GPU is severely bandwidth-constrained. To overcome these limitations, we introduce HiFC, a novel DRAM-free swapping scheme that enables direct access to SSD-resident memory with low latency and high effective bandwidth. HiFC stores KV pages in pseudoSLC (pSLC) regions of commodity NVMe SSDs, sustaining high throughput under sequential I/O and improving write endurance by up to 8 . Leveraging GPU Direct Storage, HiFC enables direct transfers between SSD and GPU, bypassing host DRAM and alleviating PCIe bottlenecks. HiFC employs fine-grained block mapping to confine writes to high-performance pSLC zones, stabilizing latency and throughput under load. HiFC achieves inference throughput comparable to DRAMbased swapping under diverse long-context workloads, such as NarrativeQA, while significantly lowering the memory expansion cost of a GPU server system by 4.5 over three years.

Causal effect estimation is critical to a range of scientific disciplines. Existing methods for this task either require interventional data, knowledge about the ground-truth causal graph, or rely on assumptions such as unconfoundedness, restricting their applicability in real-world settings. In the domain of tabular machine learning, Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved state-of-theart predictive performance, having been pre-trained on synthetic causal data to solve tabular prediction problems via in-context learning. To assess whether this can be transferred to the problem of causal effect estimation, we pre-train PFNs on synthetic data drawn from a wide variety of causal structures, including interventions, to predict interventional outcomes given observational data. Through extensive experiments in synthetic and semi-synthetic settings, we show that our approach allows for the accurate estimation of causal effects without knowledge of the underlying causal graph.

In real-world applications, anomaly detection (AD) often operates without access to anomalous data, necessitating semi-supervised methods that rely solely on normal data. Among these methods, deep k-nearest neighbor (deep kNN) AD stands out for its interpretability and flexibility, leveraging distance-based scoring in deep latent spaces. Despite its strong performance, deep kNN lacks a mechanism to quantify uncertaintyan essential feature for critical applications such as industrial inspection. To address this limitation, we propose a statistical framework that quantifies the significance of detected anomalies in the form of p-values, thereby enabling control over false positive rates at a user-specified significance level (e.g.,0.05). A central challenge lies in managing selection bias, which we tackle using Selective Inference-a principled method for conducting inference conditioned on data-driven selections. We evaluate our method on diverse datasets and demonstrate that it provides reliable AD well-suited for industrial use cases.

Attention-based encoder decoder models remain a popular choice for state-of-the-art automatic speech recognition (ASR). These models combine a powerful audio encoder that extracts rich acoustic features with a decoder that autoregressively produces the ASR output. The decoder handles two critical tasks: (1) building rich text-only context and (2) merging acoustic information from the encoder to ensure the predictions remain faithful to the audio. We observe a systematic pattern across the attention distributions of decoder layers in prior architectures: the initial layers direct most attention towards building textual context, while the later layers largely focus on merging acoustic and textual information for the final predictions. Leveraging this key insight, we propose BLOCKDECODER, a novel decoder architecture comprising two distinct components: a text encoder that is purely text-based, and a MERGER that combines information from the audio encoder and text encoder to generate output tokens. Unlike traditional decoders, the MERGER autoregressively predicts a sequence of K tokens within a block of size K, while relying on the same precomputed contextual information from both text and audio encoders across the block. This design choice allows for the efficient reuse of encoder representations. The separation of the decoder into the text encoder and the MERGER promotes modularity and more flexible control of parameters via the number of text encoder and MERGER layers. As a result, BLOCKDECODER yields a significant speedup ( 2x) compared to traditional decoders, across diverse datasets, languages, and speech tasks, without any degradation in performance.