When Does Dynamic Preconditioning Preserve the Polyak-Ruppert CLT? A Stabilization Threshold

The central limit theorem (CLT) is a foundation of statistical inference: it provides the asymptotic distribution needed for confidence intervals, hypothesis tests, and efficiency comparisons [24, 42]. For iterate-averaged stochastic gradient methods, it specifies both a Gaussian limit and its sandwich covariance in a single theorem statement. This foundation now underpins inference in streaming and online settings--online A/B testing, continual monitoring of treatment effects, and streaming M-estimation, for example--where the estimator is updated one observation at a time and inference must be performed in real time. A line of recent work develops online inference procedures for averaged SGD [10, 23, 46]. In practice, one-pass stochastic optimization is routinely combined with adaptive preconditioning, which improves computational efficiency and is believed to sharpen the resulting Gaussian approximation in finite samples. If the CLT fails or the asymptotic variance is altered by the adaptive preconditioning, all downstream inference-- coverage of confidence intervals, size of hypothesis tests, consistency of plug-in covariance estimators--is compromised. A rigorous understanding of when adaptive preconditioning preserves the CLT is, therefore, a prerequisite for reliable inference in these settings.